Staff Reports
Last Call — A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics.
First Shot
Voters will head to the polls with economic concerns top-of-mind, according to a new poll from Florida Atlantic University.
The FAU Business and Economics Polling Initiative polled 644 likely Florida voters and found nearly two-fifths would be prioritizing pocketbook issues as they fill out their ballots, with pandemic-related concerns coming in at 18%, health care at 17% and racial equality at 11%.
The issue ranking comes as many Floridians still find themselves out of work, but the specter of a renewed surge in coronavirus infections could quickly flip the top two.
“The economy and the coronavirus are key issues for voters and if the perception of either issue changes so could people’s votes,” said FAU BEPI director Monica Escaleras, Ph.D.
FAU also asked voters how they plan to cast their ballots and 44% said they’re going postal.
The balloting preference tracks with the already unprecedented surge in mail voting — as of Tuesday morning nearly 1.8 million Floridians mail ballots had completed the round trip back to local election supervisors. Another 3.85 million ballots are in voters’ hands.
By comparison, just over 2.7 million mail ballots were returned out of a pool of 3.35 million in the 2016 presidential election.
Another 30% of those polled said they’ll in-person during the early voting period while the balance plan to vote on Election Day.
The FAU BEPI poll was conducted Oct. 9-10 via an IVR system of landlines and cellphones as well as an online panel. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.
___
The odds of a Joe Biden presidency are growing by the day, with bettors plunking money down for what currently seems like a surefire bet.
According to BoyleSports, the former Vice President has 4/9 odds — equivalent to a 70% probability — of giving President Donald Trump the boot. Last week he had 4/6 odds. Trump, meanwhile, has eased out to 7/4 odds.
“Six states have been earmarked as crucial to this election and Biden is dominating the betting in all of them,” BoyleSports spox Lawrence Lyons said. He may not need them all to win and if punters have called the battlegrounds right, it’s hard to see how Trump can overcome his 7/4 odds which are the largest we’ve seen for his reelection to date.”
Biden’s break is on the back of positive polling in the Great Lakes states. BoyleSports says Biden is a near-lock to win Michigan’s 16 electoral votes and has set the betting line at a “red-hot 1/7.” Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are nearly as certain, with each state carrying 2/9 odds to go blue.
Biden is also the 1/2 favorite in Arizona and a 4/6 favorite in North Carolina.
And in Florida, a state included in nearly all pathways to Trump’s reelection, BoyleSports is giving Biden an 8/13 chance (62%) of pulling off a win.
Coronavirus Numbers
Positive cases:
— 729,591 FL residents (+2,657 since Monday)
— 9,158 Non-FL residents (+68 since Monday)
Origin:
— 6,271 Travel related
— 271,057 Contact with a confirmed case
— 6,692 Both
— 445,571 Under investigation
Hospitalizations:
— 46,225 in FL
Deaths:
— 15,722 in FL
Evening Reads
“The third wave of the pandemic is here” via David Wallace-Wells of New York Magazine
“U.S. pauses Eli Lilly’s trial of a coronavirus antibody treatment over safety concerns” via CNBC
“Florida could seal Donald Trump’s fate on Election Night” via Joshua Green of Bloomberg
“A $52,112 air ambulance ride: Coronavirus patients battle surprise bills” via Sarah Kliff of The New York Times
“GOP has been aggressively trying to pack supreme courts at state level, study says” via Christopher Ingraham of The Washington Post
“Survey shows Joe Biden above the 50% mark in Florida” via Ryan Nicol of Florida Politics
“After Sanford swing, Trump is headed to Ocala” via A.G. Gancarski of Florida Politics
“Biden — wearing a mask — says the ‘only senior Trump cares’ about is the ‘senior Donald Trump’” via Skyler Swisher and Anthony Man of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel
“Trump, Mike Pence to blanket Miami Thursday on day of canceled debate with Biden” via David Smiley of the Miami Herald
“AP-NORC poll: New angst for caregivers in time of COVID-19” via Emily Swanson and Ricardo Alonso-Zaldivar of The Associated Press
“Pence schedules visit to Miami-Dade just days after Trump touched down in Florida” via Ryan Nicol of Florida Politics
“Lawsuit aims to toss ‘All Voters Vote’ off ballot” via Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics
“Fewer fistfights, less sex — TV production gets a COVID makeover” via Joe Flint of The Wall Street Journal
“Disney’s reorganization raises more questions for investors” via Georg Szalai of The Hollywood Reporter
“Florida Gators football team halts team activities after 5 new COVID-19 cases” via Robbie Andreu of the Gainesville Sun
Quote of the Day
“This isn’t reform, it’s a roulette wheel. No one is really sure what elections would look like under this amendment. Entire constituencies — geographic, ethnic, racial and religious — could find themselves left behind.” — House Speaker-designate Chris Sprowls, on the open primaries amendment.
Bill Day’s Latest
Breakthrough Insights
