Poll: Julie Jenkins grows lead over incumbent Jackie Toledo to nearly 10 points

Rep. Jackie Toledo continues to trail her Democratic challenger, Julie Jenkins, according to the latest survey of Florida House District 60 voters from St. Pete Polls released Monday.

Jenkins leads Toledo more than 50% to just under 41%, a nearly ten-point spread that spells bad news for the Republican incumbent. Jenkins has grown her lead since the last poll in the district, taken in mid-September, that found Jenkins leading six points at 48% to 42%.

Jenkins’ lead is consistent with voter preferences at the top of the ticket, with former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump 11 points at 54% to 43%. That lead also grew from the previous poll, which showed Biden leading seven points, a sign that what Democrats have been hoping for has happened — that Trump’s name at the top of the ticket would negatively affect Republican candidates down-ballot.

It’s a remarkable showing in a district that has a GOP voter advantage. Republicans carry nearly 37% of all registered voters while Democrats make up 33.5% and independents 30%. Furthering their advantage, 40% of all registered Republicans are considered active voters — those who have voted at least once in the past four years — while Democrats have just 36% who are active.

Jenkins’ lead breaks down to strong crossover appeal and support from independents. While Toledo leads among Republican voters in the district, she does so with just 66% support. Another 26% of GOP voters plan to cast a ballot for the Democrat. Meanwhile, Toledo claims just 14% of the Democratic vote while Jenkins has 77% support from her own party.

Independents favor Jenkins 49% to 42%.

Toledo performs better among White voters but still trails 47% to 45%. Black voters favor Jenkins 87% to just 3%.

Asian or Pacific Islanders favor Toledo 54.5% to 45.5%, but the demographic is representatively small, with just 11 respondents of the 405 polled, less than 3%.

Jenkins’ polling advantage comes despite Toledo raising significantly more cash for the race. Toledo has raised about $279,000 more than Jenkins, bringing in nearly $465,000 as of Oct. 2 compared to Jenkins’ nearly $186,000.

Meanwhile, Jenkins has spent less than $82,000 while Toledo’s campaign has poured more than $251,000 into the race. Both candidates have benefitted from party support with more than $42,000 worth of in-kind contributions from Jenkins and nearly $37,000 for Toledo, mostly from their respective party apparatus.

Toledo’s polling deficit comes after she won reelection in 2018 against Debra Bellanti by four points and after she was initially elected in 2016 over David Singer by 10 points. Trump carried the district that year by less than 1 point over Hillary Clinton.

The poll also shows waning support for Gov. Ron DeSantis with 49% of surveyed voters saying they disapprove of the Governor’s job performance compared to just 42% who say they approve.

The poll was conducted on Saturday and Sunday and has a margin of error of 4.9 percentage points. HD 60 covers parts of Tampa including South Tampa and the Westshore area.