Poll: Julie Jenkins grows lead over incumbent Jackie Toledo to nearly 10 points

Jackie Toledo_Julie Jenkins
Trump is also trailing 11 points in the Republican-leaning district.

Rep. Jackie Toledo continues to trail her Democratic challenger, Julie Jenkins, according to the latest survey of Florida House District 60 voters from St. Pete Polls released Monday.

Jenkins leads Toledo more than 50% to just under 41%, a nearly ten-point spread that spells bad news for the Republican incumbent. Jenkins has grown her lead since the last poll in the district, taken in mid-September, that found Jenkins leading six points at 48% to 42%.

Jenkins’ lead is consistent with voter preferences at the top of the ticket, with former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump 11 points at 54% to 43%. That lead also grew from the previous poll, which showed Biden leading seven points, a sign that what Democrats have been hoping for has happened — that Trump’s name at the top of the ticket would negatively affect Republican candidates down-ballot.

It’s a remarkable showing in a district that has a GOP voter advantage. Republicans carry nearly 37% of all registered voters while Democrats make up 33.5% and independents 30%. Furthering their advantage, 40% of all registered Republicans are considered active voters — those who have voted at least once in the past four years — while Democrats have just 36% who are active.

Jenkins’ lead breaks down to strong crossover appeal and support from independents. While Toledo leads among Republican voters in the district, she does so with just 66% support. Another 26% of GOP voters plan to cast a ballot for the Democrat. Meanwhile, Toledo claims just 14% of the Democratic vote while Jenkins has 77% support from her own party.

Independents favor Jenkins 49% to 42%.

Toledo performs better among White voters but still trails 47% to 45%. Black voters favor Jenkins 87% to just 3%.

Asian or Pacific Islanders favor Toledo 54.5% to 45.5%, but the demographic is representatively small, with just 11 respondents of the 405 polled, less than 3%.

Jenkins’ polling advantage comes despite Toledo raising significantly more cash for the race. Toledo has raised about $279,000 more than Jenkins, bringing in nearly $465,000 as of Oct. 2 compared to Jenkins’ nearly $186,000.

Meanwhile, Jenkins has spent less than $82,000 while Toledo’s campaign has poured more than $251,000 into the race. Both candidates have benefitted from party support with more than $42,000 worth of in-kind contributions from Jenkins and nearly $37,000 for Toledo, mostly from their respective party apparatus.

Toledo’s polling deficit comes after she won reelection in 2018 against Debra Bellanti by four points and after she was initially elected in 2016 over David Singer by 10 points. Trump carried the district that year by less than 1 point over Hillary Clinton.

The poll also shows waning support for Gov. Ron DeSantis with 49% of surveyed voters saying they disapprove of the Governor’s job performance compared to just 42% who say they approve.

The poll was conducted on Saturday and Sunday and has a margin of error of 4.9 percentage points. HD 60 covers parts of Tampa including South Tampa and the Westshore area.

Janelle Irwin Taylor

Janelle Irwin Taylor has been a professional journalist covering local news and politics in Tampa Bay since 2003. Most recently, Janelle reported for the Tampa Bay Business Journal. She formerly served as senior reporter for WMNF News. Janelle has a lust for politics and policy. When she’s not bringing you the day’s news, you might find Janelle enjoying nature with her husband, children and two dogs. You can reach Janelle at [email protected].


  • Sonja Fitch

    October 19, 2020 at 4:12 pm

    There is only the goptrump DEATH cult! Trump and Desantis gleefully are using our children to community spread for that Fing Nazi herd immunity! Vote Democrat up and down ballot for the common good!

  • Gill

    October 19, 2020 at 6:13 pm

    Jackie must be on vacation.

  • Joseph

    October 19, 2020 at 6:15 pm

    No she’s too poor for vacation. Remember she only earns 30k a year yet her kids school cost 100k a year. Send her packing!!! She’s made money off our district too long!!!

  • Pete

    October 19, 2020 at 7:03 pm

    Isn’t her husband on the run from the law? Shouldn’t it be Illegally for felons to run for office? Her and Jose have ripped of thousands of Tampa bay residents. She’s a felon in my book. And Jose is in Miami running from the law.

  • Time is up jAckie

    October 20, 2020 at 7:55 am

    Jackie is no more than a South Tampa socialite that sponges off her district. She is a joke and so is her felon husband that ripped off poor imigrants and then took off toMiami. Jackie is a crook and she has no place as a public servant. She’s been on vacation for the last 5 years of her life. She also spends 100k a year to send her kids to private schools.

  • Kacey

    October 22, 2020 at 3:54 pm

    I had the pleasure of working with Julie back in the day. A total professional and efficient at what she does and keeps her word. She really looks out for people. I hope voters will choose her to be the next State Representative. Florida deserves a leader with integrity and decorum.

Comments are closed.


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