Scott Powers
Polls rolled out in the last week before Tuesday’s General Election show what most expected: that the presidential contest has tightened in Florida, with Democrat Joe Biden still clinging to a slim lead.
The Democratic presidential nominee’s lead over President Donald Trump in 10 polls released last week or this weekend is usually, but not always, within the margin of error.
Three of those 10 recent polls have shown Trump leading, including one by the Republican consultant Trafalgar Group. In those, too, the gap is absorbed by the polls’ margins of error.
In its rolling average of six major polls, RealClearPollitics.com has Biden ahead, but the average margin now is less than 1 percentage point.
The Susquehanna Polling & Research survey conducted last Thursday through Sunday and released Sunday has Trump up with 47% to 46% for Biden, with a margin of error of 4.9 percentage points.
The St. Pete Polls survey taken last Thursday and Friday and released Sunday has Biden up 49% to 48% over Trump, with a margin of error of 1.9 percentage points.
The New York Times/Siena College poll taken from Tuesday through Thursday last week and released Sunday has Biden up in Florida with 49%, to 43% for Trump. The spread is one of the few beyond the 3.2 percentage point margin of error pollsters cited.
The Hill/The Harris Poll conducted Monday through Thursday last week and released Thursday has Biden up 50% to 47% over Trump. In its write-up, The Hill did not disclose the margin of error.
The ABC News/Washington Post poll conducted Oct. 24 through last Thursday and released Saturday is one of two polls that has Trump leading Biden, 50% to 48%. The survey’s margin of error was 4 percentage points.
The Trafalgar Group‘s poll conducted last Sunday through Wednesday and released last Thursday has Trump up 50% to 47%, just on the edge of the margin of error, which was disclosed as 2.9 percentage points.
The NBC/Marist College poll conducted last Sunday through Tuesday and released Thursday has Biden up 51% to 47%, beyond the 4.4% margin of error pollsters offered.
The Monmouth University poll, conducted Oct. 24 through last Wednesday and released Thursday has Biden up 51% to 45%, just beyond the 4.4% margin of error pollsters cited.
The Quinnipiac University poll, conducted Oct. 23 through last Tuesday, and released Friday, had Biden up 45% to 42% over Trump, just on the edge of the margin of error of 2.7 percentage points for the poll.
The Florida Atlantic University poll conducted Oct 24-25 and released last Tuesday had Biden up 50% to 48%, within the 3.1 percentage point margin of error.
Besides differences in methodology, polling samples and ideas about such things as “shy voters,” the most recent major polls provided a few stark differences in results on some demographic groups.
Among independent voters, Biden led in five of six recent surveys that offered those details. Biden’s biggest advantage, 18 points, was reported in the New York Times/Siena survey (52% to 34%) and in the Quinnipiac survey (50% to 32%.) The Trafalgar Group had independent voters breaking Trump’s way (51% to 38%.) The ABC News/Washington Post poll gave Biden just a one-point advantage (48% to 47%.)
Among those that provided racial and ethnic breakdowns, Biden was winning the Hispanic vote in every poll except the NBC/Marist poll, which had Latino voters breaking for Trump 54% to 44%, but had Biden leading overall anyway. In the other polls, Biden’s leads among Hispanic voters ranged from 40 points in the New York Times/Siena poll (66% to 26%) to four points in the ABC News/Washington Post poll (51% to 47%.)
Among women, Biden was found to be winning in every poll that provided gender results, but just barely in the Trafalgar Group’s survey, 49% to 48%. In the other polls, Biden’s lead ranged from 23 points in the Quinnipiac poll (60% to 37%) to four points in the St. Pete Polls survey (51% to 47%.)
Among White voters, Trump had significant leads in every poll that provided those details. In the ABC News/Washington Post poll, Trump’s lead among White voters was 20 points (59% to 39%.) It was closest in the New York Times/Siena survey (50% to 43%.)
Among men, Trump leads in every poll that provided such breakouts. Trump’s advantage ranged from 15 points in the Monmouth poll (60% to 37%) to two points in the New York Times/Siena poll, (51%. to 49%.)
