If the final Quinnipiac poll of Florida holds up, Joe Biden is headed to a big win over Donald Trump in the Sunshine State.
In a live dial survey of 1,657 likely voters conducted between Oct. 28 and Nov. 1 on both landlines and cellphones, Biden is the choice of 48% and Trump just 43%.
And if that’s the case, asserts Quinnipiac polling director Tim Malloy, that makes the rest of the map “all but irrelevant,” meaning that Joe Biden would be close to a shoo-in for the White House.
“Florida, Florida, Florida,” quipped the pollster.
“There is some confidence that the votes will be counted in time to declare a winner Tuesday night. As the hottest summer in years lingers, both sides sweat out a final tally that, if it goes Biden’s way, could make the rest of the vote count all but irrelevant,” added Malloy.
According to the Q poll, Biden is considerably more popular than the President in the state, with a favorability of +5 (48% approval versus 43% disapproval), with Trump languishing at -8 (with 42% approval against 50 disapproval).
Quinnipiac released numbers just a few days earlier that were somewhat more favorable to the President, with Biden up 3 in a survey released Thursday.
That spread represented a significant improvement for Trump, though one that reveals a certain amount of noise in the pollster’s methodology.
In a poll released Oct. 7, Quinnipiac had Biden ahead 51% to 40%. A September Quinnipiac poll had Biden up 48% to 45%.
For his part, Trump forecast a rousing Florida victory in remarks Sunday night and Monday morning in Opa-locka.
“They’re very worried, the Democrats, about Florida. The vote’s not there for them,” Trump said.
“If we win Florida,” Trump added, “we win the whole thing.”
The Real Clear Politics‘ polling average shows a Biden advantage of 1.4%, when the Quinnipiac poll is factored in.
However, it should be noted that Quinnipiac has gotten Florida wrong before, including in 2018 when the pollster saw 7-point wins for Andrew Gillum and Bill Nelson in their respective races for Governor and U.S. Senate.
Those victories did not come to pass.