After downward trend, South Florida’s COVID-19 spread could be back on the upswing

COVID-19 rates are on the downswing in Palm Beach and Broward counties. Image via Sun-Sentinel.

The metrics measuring COVID-19’s current spread in South Florida remain down week-to-week. But the past few daily reports from the Department of Health show cases may once again be rising in the region.

The new tally of raw cases is down week to week in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties. The share of tests coming back positive is also down in all three counties week to week.

However, that latter metric — the case positivity rate — has risen for consecutive days in Broward and Palm Beach counties, now returning to levels seen the week prior.

Experts advise not putting too much stock into daily shifts, as those numbers can fluctuate. So long as the longer-term trends remain promising, officials can feel confident the virus’s spread is slowing. Still, any changes in the otherwise downward trend are noteworthy. Newer reports through the week should show whether the weekend bump is just a blip or a sign that things are worsening once again.

While the current spread may be down week-to-week, Miami-Dade County is still experiencing a high number of daily hospitalizations due to the virus. The number of newly-reported hospitalizations per day has been above 40 for two straight weeks now. Those levels have not been seen since the summer spike.

The daily death toll has also hovered around 25 people per day in Miami-Dade alone over the previous two weeks. The region saw similar death totals during the summer, though that number often surged above 30 or even 40 deaths per day over a given one-week span.

Advances in treatment methods have helped keep the death toll in Miami-Dade below those sky-high marks. But dozens of new patients continue to suffer each day. In total, another 37 South Floridians died from the virus, according to Monday’s report. That brings the overall death toll to 8,637 since the pandemic began.

The region also eclipsed 600,000 total cases in Sunday’s report. Today’s numbers show 3,277 new cases, bringing the overall total close to 604,000.

Here are some of the weekly numbers for the previous three weeks throughout the South Florida tri-county area:

Miami-Dade

— Dec. 28-Jan. 3: 28 newly-reported hospitalizations per day, 14 newly-reported deaths per day, 2,542 new confirmed cases per day, 10.7% positivity rate

— Jan. 4-10: 44 newly-reported hospitalizations per day, 26 newly-reported deaths per day, 2,897 new confirmed cases per day, 10% positivity rate

— Jan. 11-17: 48 newly-reported hospitalizations per day, 25 newly-reported deaths per day, 2,459 new confirmed cases per day, 9.1% positivity rate

Broward

— Dec. 28-Jan. 3: 20 newly-reported hospitalizations per day, 8 newly-reported deaths per day, 1,190 new confirmed cases per day, 9.7% positivity rate

— Jan. 4-10: 28 newly-reported hospitalizations per day, 7 newly-reported deaths per day, 1,342 new confirmed cases per day, 9.7% positivity rate

— Jan. 11-17: 23 newly-reported hospitalizations per day, 8 newly-reported deaths per day, 1,155 new confirmed cases per day, 8.4% positivity rate

Palm Beach

— Dec. 28-Jan. 3: 24 newly-reported hospitalizations per day, 8 newly-reported deaths per day, 755 new confirmed cases per day, 9.8% positivity rate

— Jan. 4-10: 17 newly-reported hospitalizations per day, 7 newly-reported deaths per day, 875 new confirmed cases per day, 10% positivity rate

— Jan. 11-17: 16 newly-reported hospitalizations per day, 9 newly-reported deaths per day, 768 new confirmed cases per day, 8.4% positivity rate