Polls open in St. Pete with 20% vote-by-mail turnout

Image via AP.

As polls opened Tuesday morning for St. Petersburg’s Primary Election, more than 38,000 voters had already returned mail ballots, putting turnout at about 20% so far.

That’s only slightly fewer mail ballots returned than four years ago, the last time a mayor’s race was on the ballot when incumbent Mayor Rick Kriseman faced former Mayor Rick Baker in what turned out to be one of the city’s most contentious races in recent history — one markedly partisan and punctuated by a divisive White House that made all politics a referendum on then-President Donald Trump.

But four years ago, there were about 20,000 fewer voters in St. Pete than this year.

Still, turnout is on pace to at least come close to four years ago, which saw an overall turnout of just over 33% — if Election Day voting holds up.

Of the mail ballots returned by Election Day morning, Democrats doubled turnout over Republicans, with 21,034 ballots returned to 10,638 from GOP voters. Voters with no party affiliation returned just over 6,000 ballots, while third-party voters returned 434 ballots.

Four years ago, about 18,000 voters cast a ballot on Election Day. About 20 minutes after polls opened, 269 voters had cast a ballot at local precincts. In-person voting tends to be the busiest first thing in the morning as voters stop to cast a ballot before work and in the evening after they’ve left their jobs for the day. Upticks are also common midday, likely corresponding with lunch breaks. This year, the resurgent COVID-19 pandemic could hamper in-person voting as the delta variant continues to cause breakthrough cases even among the vaccinated.

This year’s top-of-ticket race features a crowded mayoral contest. But there are three candidates to watch — former Pinellas County Commissioner Ken Welch and City Council members Darden Rice and Robert Blackmon.

Welch and Rice are both registered Democrats while Blackmon is a Republican, though the race is nonpartisan, and the candidates’ party affiliations won’t appear on the ballot.

Welch has consistently led in the polls, with the most recent showing him with a 10 percentage point lead over Blackmon, at 37% support to 27%. Rice trailed further at 17% support.

The race also features City Council contests in District 1, a Special Election to replace Blackmon, who had to resign to run for Mayor, District 4 and District 8. The District 4 race will decide — whether on Tuesday night or on Nov. 2 — Rice’s replacement. The District 8 race is to replace Amy Foster, who is leaving office due to term limits.

Districts 2 and 6 feature just two candidates and will appear on the November General Election ballot.