A.G. Gancarski
Ambiguity in at least one prediction market related to the 2024 presidential race appears to be resolving, with Florida’s Governor in front-runner status.
A Friday “Predictive Insights” email from the PredictIt platform proclaimed that Ron DeSantis “leads the 2024 race” as Joe Biden’s “age catches up to him,” the latest in a series of boosts for the Governor’s still-theoretical road to the White House.
The analysis trumpets this week’s University of New Hampshire poll that showed DeSantis ahead of Biden in the General Election and the previously dominant Donald Trump in the Republican Primary, even as the Governor’s leads were within the margin of error in both hypothetical faceoffs.
“The New Hampshire poll is the latest sign that DeSantis may have enough juice with voters to take on Trump, or to take on the mantle if the former president doesn’t run in 2024. Earlier this month, DeSantis beat Trump in a straw poll at a conservative summit in Colorado for the second year in a row. That coincided with other straw poll wins in Wisconsin and Nevada,” PredictIt urges.
DeSantis continues to surge, meanwhile. PredictIt notes that he was tied with Trump in the GOP Primary race as recently as June 19, but has surged since, with his “Yes” shares valued at 41 cents, five cents above the former President as of Friday at noon.
A similar dynamic is in play in the Presidential prediction market, with the latest DeSantis “Yes” share price of 36 cents being nine cents above the former President and a full 15 cents above the fading Biden.
DeSantis continues to deny any interest in a presidential run, mocking what he called a media “obsession” about a potential campaign in his most recent press conference.
DeSantis has been coy when asked about 2024, calling the chatter about it “nonsense” for months. He sidestepped this topic as recently as a Fox News interview this month. He continues to downplay recent straw polls showing him as a leading presidential contender in 2024.
Trump, meanwhile, continues to try to put DeSantis in a subordinate role, telling a friendly Newsmax interviewer this week he was “very responsible” for the former Congressman winning the Governor’s race four years ago.
7 comments
Tom
June 25, 2022 at 8:31 am
In fairness, America’s Gov has never says he’s interested in POTUS. Just saying.
Arora
June 25, 2022 at 2:28 pm
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Usyk
June 27, 2022 at 1:46 pm
Amb Haley, Gov Noem, and others will pick apart DeSantis record as Gov. And Fla is middling or worse in a lot of categories. He is not the sure-thing for 2024 that some are portraying him as.
Wilma
June 27, 2022 at 6:44 pm
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tom palmer
June 28, 2022 at 4:22 pm
We;ll see how honest he has been about his ambitions. He went from some obscure north Florida politician to governor based on the grifter in chief’s endorsement and the Dems miscalculation.
Beth
June 29, 2022 at 4:58 pm
Dictator DeSantis has spent his entire time in office doing and saying anything for money and power. He does not care about anyone but himself and is completely lacking in any moral values or mature judgement. He works tirelessly to strip people of basic civil rights, especially women. He is manipulating school board races and banning books to please his radical evangelical campaign supporters. People wonder how Hitler rose to power? It is staring you in the face.
We have had enough corruption and fascism to last a lifetime. If you care at all about this state or our Republic you will vote him out.
Just a comment
July 1, 2022 at 2:51 pm
How is ron leading he is not running yet and make money going on social media it is legal
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