New polling of a hypothetical 2024 presidential Primary in Michigan shows that if the race were between Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump, it would be too close to call.
A live operator phone poll of 500 likely voters in this year’s GOP Primary showed that while Trump was ahead of DeSantis, 45% to 42%, the lead was well inside the margin of error of +/- 4.4 percentage points.
As one might expect, DeSantis is even outperforming Trump with some subgroups polled. The Governor was stronger with college-educated voters than Trump, with voters having less formal education preferring the former President. And the framing of the poll illustrated that divide in stark relief.
“Among Trump Republicans, Donald Trump leads 71%-21%. But among “classic Republicans,” DeSantis holds a large lead of 53%-33%,” noted the ClickOnDetroit website in discussing the results of the WDIV/Detroit News poll conducted by the Glengariff Group.
This survey is the latest example of DeSantis at least holding his own against Trump in a hypothetical head-to-head, single-state matchup.
Florida polling is starting to show DeSantis over Trump in certain contexts. A new survey from Naples-based Victory Insights shows DeSantis ahead 61% to 39% when respondents leaning toward one candidate or another are forced to choose. A survey released last week by Blueprint Polling shows DeSantis is the choice of 51% when voters who lean one way or another are considered, with a 12-point lead over Trump, who sits at 39%.
A June poll by the University of New Hampshire of the first-in-the-nation Primary state also had DeSantis over Trump, while many other polls have shown some version of a Trump lead that seems to be eroding.
Club for Growth polling on the state level has shown Trump well ahead in most places, suggesting the former President may still be the front-runner, but polls like the Michigan survey show that the 2024 question is an increasingly open one.