Last Call for 7.20.22 — A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics

Last Call — A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics.

First Shot

President Joe Biden’s approval rating has been tanking for months and a new poll suggests it hasn’t reached its nadir.

The NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll surveyed 1,160 Americans and found that just 36% believe the Biden administration is doing a good job. That’s a new low, according to the pollster — and it was driven by a significant decline among Democrats.

Though 75% of Democrats said they approve of Biden, that represents a 9-point drop from last month and is considered remarkably low for a sitting President.

The pollster noted that former President Donald Trump’s lowest approval rating among Republican voters — which he hit after his post-Charlottesville “very fine people, on both sides” gaffe — was 76%.

Meanwhile, Biden’s approval rating among GOP voters is near rock-bottom at 5%. Biden is also dragging among independents, the perennial key to electoral success, with only 28% support.

Voters under 45 are also fleeing. The bloc backed Biden over Trump by double digits in 2020, yet 63% now say they disapprove of his administration.

According to the outlets’ tracking, Biden has been lingering in the mid- to high-30s since April. And the only reason the streak isn’t longer is due to a brief rebound in early March, shortly after the Russia-Ukraine conflict began and Biden worked to unite other nations in opposition to Vladimir Putin’s invasion. 

The NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll was conducted July 11-17 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1%. Respondents were reached using live callers via cellphone and landline.

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Decision Desk HQ’s new Midterm Election forecast shows the GOP is a near lock to win back the House, but the Senate is still a tossup.

The election data outfit says the races for Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania may as well be coin flips. And the Arizona Senate race is leaning slightly toward the Democrats.

Florida isn’t in play, however.

Decision Desk HQ rates the Sunshine State as “Likely R” in its Senate map, which jibes with current polling that shows incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio holding an advantage over Democratic U.S. Rep. Val Demings.

The overall prediction is a continuation of the current 50-50 split.

The House map is a sea of red, with only a handful of blue dots in Florida. Decision Desk HQ’s model is in accord with the forecast recently released by The Cook Political Report, predicting Florida will send 20 Republicans and eight Democrats to the House — the current split is 16 Republicans and 11 Democrats.

Decision Desk HQ doesn’t see any swingy seats in the new map, with all 28 districts earning either a “Likely D” or “Solid R” designation.

The model gives Republicans an 88% chance to take the majority with the mean outcome being a 235-200 split, advantage GOP.

Evening Reads

—”Voters supported privacy in Florida Constitution, but it might not matter when it comes to abortion” via Michael Moline of the Florida Phoenix

—“Nikki Fried wants all NBC affiliates carrying her debate with Charlie Crist live” via Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics

—“Crist follows Ron DeSantis’ lead, endorses School Board candidates” via Renzo Downey of Florida Politics

—“Fried apologizes after Women’s March slams ‘racially insensitive’ ad” via Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics

—“Furor over CD 4 candidate fundraising scam accusations” via George Miller and Michael Miller of Citizens Journal Florida

—“Why George Soros is the GOP’s villain in the sale of a Spanish-language radio station” via Lesley Cosme Torres of the Miami Herald

—“Why Utah Attorney General Sean Reyes is helping DeSantis raise money” via Bryan Schott of The Salt Lake Tribune

—“Fried, legislators propose new ride safety laws for small theme parks after Tyre Sampson death” via Katie Rice of the Orlando Sentinel

—“Most Floridians favor increasing domestic oil production to lower gas prices, poll finds” via Kelly Hayes of Florida Politics

—“‘The barrel of that AR-15 came right through the door.’ Teachers, students describe horror of massacre at Marjory Stoneman Douglas” via Rafael Olmeda, Natalia Galicza and Kathy Laskowski of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel

—“Not a scam: Receive a $450 check in the mail from Gov. DeSantis? Don’t toss it, cash it” via Marilyn Parker of News4Jax

—“Officials: Starvation threat not over for Florida manatees” via Curt Anderson of The Associated Press

Quote of the Day

“I know plenty of gay people in Florida that are pissed off about gas bills.”

— U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, after saying legislation protecting same-sex marriage is ‘not a priority.’

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