Second poll in a week shows Val Demings and Marco Rubio in dead heat
The marquee race begins.

Rubio Demings
It's the second poll in a week released by partisan outfits that finds the U.S. Senate race tied.

EMILY’s List — a national group supporting pro abortion rights candidates — released a poll showing Democratic U.S. Rep. Val Demings and Republican U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio tied in Florida’s 2022 U.S. Senate contest.

The poll, done by Change Research, a Democratic polling firm out of California, finds both candidates drew 46% in a survey of likely Florida voters, with 7% saying they are unsure and 2% saying they would not vote.

The poll was shared exclusively with Florida Politics.

Demings is the anticipated Democratic challenger in the November General Election. She first must win the Aug. 23 Democratic Primary Election against several nominal opponents.

It’s the second consecutive poll commissioned by partisans that characterizes the General Election race as essentially tied. A poll released earlier this week by Progress Florida and Florida Watch, two progressive groups, had Rubio and Demings both at 45%.

There haven’t been any polls released on Florida’s U.S. Senate contest by major, unaffiliated outfits released for a while. A poll released in July by Center Street had Rubio up by 8 points. That poll also showed Demings gaining from previous surveys.

Since then, both candidates have gone up on TV with statewide television commercials.

EMILY’s List’s List has endorsed Demings.

The Change Research survey found that Demings has much stronger likability ratings than Rubio. A polling memo from Change Research to EMILY’s List’s List called Rubio “one of the most unpopular public figures in Florida.”

When asked to rate the Demings based on what voters have seen, heard or read, 36% of the likely voters said it was mostly positive, 24% said it was an equal mix of positive or negative responses, and 15% said mostly negative.

For Rubio, 21% said mostly positive, 26% said equal mix, and 34% said mostly negative.

The survey also found that Demings, a three-term Congresswoman from Orlando who had limited statewide recognition, has seen her name ID expanded. The poll found 75% of Florida’s likely voters can now identify her. Rubio, seeking a third term in the Senate, is at 82%.

In the memo to EMILY’s List’s List, Change Research advised that Rubio is underperforming with White voters, especially with White and Republican women voters.

The survey was conducted online, in English and Spanish. It was taken August 2-5 of 1,031 likely voters. Post-stratification was done on region, gender, age, ethnicity, education, and 2020 vote. Given “Republican performance among Florida Latinos in recent elections, this survey was careful to obtain responses from conservative Hispanics,” Change Research noted.

Here is the polling memo:

Scott Powers

Scott Powers is an Orlando-based political journalist with 30+ years’ experience, mostly at newspapers such as the Orlando Sentinel and the Columbus Dispatch. He covers local, state and federal politics and space news across much of Central Florida. His career earned numerous journalism awards for stories ranging from the Space Shuttle Columbia disaster to presidential elections to misplaced nuclear waste. He and his wife Connie have three grown children. Besides them, he’s into mystery and suspense books and movies, rock, blues, basketball, baseball, writing unpublished novels, and being amused. Email him at [email protected]


26 comments

  • PeterH

    August 11, 2022 at 7:21 pm

    Independent voters make the final decision on who wins elections.

    There are 3,887,406 independent voters in Florida

    Independent voters will decide if Val or Marco will represent Florida in the Senate.

    • Impeach Biden

      August 11, 2022 at 7:35 pm

      Will Val have Joe or Kamala campaign for her? To all the independent voters ask yourself this question, Are you better off now than you were before Jan 2021? Record fuel prices, 40 year high inflation, over 4 million immigrants enter8ng this country and thousands more each day, crime in the cities, the defund movement, and cashless bail. Val is a Democrat and supports the Joe Biden radical leftist agenda.

      • Rob

        August 11, 2022 at 10:16 pm

        Inflation is not limited to the US, fuel prices are a worldwide price, demings is a multi decade police officer that wants to increase police budgets. Stop the propaganda. Want some real facts? Reagan grew the federal budget by more than Clinton and Obama combined and 43 of the 45 million jobs created in this country since the late 80s have been under democratic presidents. Thats right, over 90% of the jobs created in this country in the last half century have been because of democrats. Everything republicans say is a lie. Remember they said Roe v Wade was settled law? Don’t vote for evil.

        • Joann

          August 11, 2022 at 10:59 pm

          You have the facts and they are correct. Thank You

        • Impeach Biden

          August 12, 2022 at 6:16 am

          Now of course if a Republican was President then you would have the same view on inflation. Biden claims 0% inflation in July and the MSM says nothing. Talk about propaganda. With regards to the defund movement. All the support by the Democrats to defund will come out in the fall election cycle. Exhibit A: West Hollywood has in fact defunded an now they have unarmed safety ambassadors. What do you think the criminal element is thinking?

          • Bill

            August 12, 2022 at 7:43 am

            It would not have made the least bit of difference who was in power. Inflation was going to happen and there is not much (some, but not much) that a President can do to stop it. As for defunding the police, stupidest marketing slogan ever and democrats deserve to be beaten over the head with it but as a concept, relying on the police to solve every single problem from cats in trees to school massacres is probably not a great strategy (especially seeing how much it costs to train them) and plenty of cops (the ones I know at least) agree. Either way, I’m an independent so I’ll just vote my interests which don’t involve your culture wars.

          • Tom

            August 14, 2022 at 2:26 am

            All these impeach Biden suggestions are nonsense. These are the very people that did not want to impeach Trump for breaking every law in the including the one he signed into law. Most current republicans, including Rubio, are liars, fakes and hypocrites. Any woman who would vote for those clowns need their head examined.

      • teresa r Knepper

        August 14, 2022 at 2:09 pm

        I don’t think Republicans have any standing to call Democrats radical after what’s been happening the last several years. Republicans are the most radical extremists out there: “defund the FBI,” just because they’re doing their job???

        • Jamie Hayes

          August 17, 2022 at 1:36 pm

          I was a GOP member for over 40 years. Now that it has become the MAGA party in support of an evil authoritarian moron, no more. Most of the GOP candidates are just ignorant loudmouths who offer nothing but Trump lies… no ideas, no legislation, no vision.

  • Stephanie in Tampa

    August 11, 2022 at 7:33 pm

    As a working mom I’m tired of listening to Marco Rubio’s politicking instead of representing Floridians. Additionally I had a complicated miscarriage two years ago that ended in an abortion clinic. I will not vote for any candidate who doesn’t represent my health issues. Rubio can’t be trusted. Val Demings has my vote.

  • marylou

    August 11, 2022 at 8:32 pm

    Rubio voted for Florida’s Scarlet Letter Law, passed in 2001, which forced single women who wanted to be ALLOWED to place their child for adoption to publish their sexual histories in their local newspaper.

    The ads (which women had to pay for) included the woman’s name, age, physical description, including her hair, weight and eye color. Women were also required to provide details about their sexual encounters — including names of sexual partners, dates and locations. The legislation had no exceptions for victims of rape or incest, and even required girls under the age of 18 to comply.

    As a result of Rubio and radical Republican’s votes, how many women felt coerced into abortion to avoid public shaming. Demings won’t shame women who choose adoption. VOTE BLUE to protect women and babies!

  • tom palmer

    August 11, 2022 at 8:52 pm

    Hey, anonymous troll Impeach Biden, gas pirices have dropped $1.50 a gallon, the stock market is up and the air is going to be cleaner and insulin is going to be cheaper despite Big Pharma/GOP opposition. Your real issue is dark-skinned folks, it seems.The world is changing. Get over it.

    • Impeach Biden

      August 12, 2022 at 8:12 am

      Now exactly how do you come to that conclusion about dark skin? What makes you think I’m light skinned? Now if I was dark skinned and had these views you would probably call me an Uncle Tom right? You need some unconscious bias training my friend.

    • Impeach Biden

      August 12, 2022 at 8:32 am

      By the way Palmer gas prices have come down but are still much higher than they were in Jan 2021. Remember Biden is going to put the the oil companies or did you forget. With regards to clean air the US has always been a leader when it comes to that. Travel much? Vehicles in Central and South America are predominantly diesel. That dirty diesel is cheap that’s why cars have those engines there. Now do you think these people are going to be able to buy a Tesla? How about India. Do you think they give shit about clean air? China? The smog is so thick there in their manufacturing cities it’s almost zero visibility.

  • Impeach Biden

    August 12, 2022 at 8:39 am

    Wow. The FP police won’t allow me to state that fuel prices are down yet still higher than they were in Jan 2021. Also with regards to clean air, the US has always been a leader in that. Look around the world. Vehicles on Central and South America are predominantly diesel because the fuel is cheap. These people will not and can not afford to buy electric cars, but here we are sacrificing for everyone around the world. Look at the manufacturing cities in China. The smog is so bad you can barely see ahead of you. This comment was a response to Tom Palmer

  • Impeach Biden

    August 12, 2022 at 8:44 am

    Yup the FP Police are out in force this morning. Can’t say anything that goes against their propaganda.

    • Impeach Biden

      August 12, 2022 at 10:38 am

      I guess the FP police had a change of heart. Free speech lives on. 😄

      • Bill

        August 12, 2022 at 11:23 am

        “Free speech lives on. 😄” so does conservative paranoia and victimhood apparently. The good news is that it’s Friday.

      • Ocean Joe

        August 12, 2022 at 6:56 pm

        Yes, there’s a conspiracy to silence you, IB, … at least there was for a few minutes.
        FP should probably disclose the mechanism that reviews comments so you can focus on the more important stuff like Jewish space lasers and stolen elections. Say, where were you during Y2K?

  • marylou

    August 12, 2022 at 8:10 pm

    The US should be setting an example on climate, not waiting for China. In the US and across the world, young people are in the streets demanding, not cheaper gas, bigger pipelines, lower taxes or higher corporate profits, but, rather, a livable planet. Turn off Fox News and look out your window, you’ll see what really matters now.

    • marylou

      August 12, 2022 at 8:13 pm

      * for Impeach Biden

      • Impeach Biden

        August 12, 2022 at 9:27 pm

        Mary Lou. The US has always lead. Back in the mid 80’s Europe was still burning leased fuel while the US had converted to lead free gas. That’s just one example. Where do you think the minerals come from that produce these car batteries? What source of fuel recharges these batteries? What do we do with the dead batteries?

  • Jerry

    August 12, 2022 at 10:32 pm

    Are you kidding me? Why is this site posting only polls by far-left groups?

    And you call yourselves “journalists?”

  • Wanda

    August 14, 2022 at 6:47 am

    All you Trump cult members needs to shout up your very low IQ mouths trump will never run for president he is a disgrace to the United States,Biden will kick his ass again I see the future and I am a Republican Blue is going to take over and the Supreme Court judges are going to wish they had left the bill of rights alone they are as crooked as trump we need turn limits get rid of them bunch of lying morons

    • marylou

      August 14, 2022 at 11:13 am

      Speaking of SCOTUS lies: Alito’s Dobbs rant about US history of abortion covered up the fact that Benjamin Franklin published a recipe for abortion in his popular textbook that women had –and used–in their own homes.
      Another Alito coverup: Christianity Today and the Christian Medical Society’s gathering of evangelical leader’s 1968 statement on abortion: “….family welfare, and social responsibility….When principles conflict,” they affirmed, “the preservation of fetal life … may have to be abandoned to maintain full and secure family life.”

  • Lauren s

    August 14, 2022 at 8:10 am

    Marco Rubio is bad for Florida
    Hasn’t done anything to fix our broken education system , insurance crisis , keeps taking away abortion rights and lgbt rights . He needs to GO

Comments are closed.


#FlaPol

Florida Politics is a statewide, new media platform covering campaigns, elections, government, policy, and lobbying in Florida. This platform and all of its content are owned by Extensive Enterprises Media.

Publisher: Peter Schorsch @PeterSchorschFL

Contributors & reporters: Phil Ammann, Renzo Downey, Roseanne Dunkelberger, A.G. Gancarski, Anne Geggis, Kelly Hayes, Joe Henderson, Ryan Nicol, Jacob Ogles, Scott Powers, Gray Rohrer, Aimee Sachs, Jesse Scheckner, Christine Sexton, Andrew Wilson, Wes Wolfe, and Mike Wright.

Email: [email protected]
Twitter: @PeterSchorschFL
Phone: (727) 642-3162
Address: 204 37th Avenue North #182
St. Petersburg, Florida 33704




Sign up for Sunburn


Categories