Final poll: Charlie Crist headed to victory in Florida Democratic Primary for Governor

0822_Crist_Politicians
It's not even close, according to St. Pete Polls.

A closing poll of likely Democratic Primary voters shows Charlie Crist in position to win.

St. Pete Polls conducted its final survey ahead of the Democratic Primary on who voters intend to choose as the Democratic nominee. More than 59% said Crist, the former Republican Governor-turned-Democratic Congressman. Almost 30% said Nikki Fried, Florida’s Agriculture Commissioner.

Another 11% remained undecided or declined to answer, but that leaves little room for the vote to swing before the final ballots are cast on Tuesday.

Pollsters conducted the survey Aug. 20 and 21, polling 1,617 likely Democratic Primary voters. The large sample size gives the poll just a 2.4 percentage point margin of error, pollsters report. Results were weighted based on the active voter demographics for registered Democrats in the state.

The pollster had last tested the field in early August, when it found Crist leading with 56% to Fried’s 24%.

Moreover, much of that support appears locked in and unchangeable. Pollsters found 57% of likely Democratic voters had already voted by the time they answered the survey. Of those, 63% broke for Crist and just over 31% went to Fried; the remaining 6% did not answer.

Of note, Crist performs better among women candidates than men, though he wins both demographics. About 55% of male voters surveyed prefer Crist as the Democratic nominee, compared to 34% who like Fried. Meanwhile, almost 63% of women like Crist and just over 26% prefer Fried.

That’s despite the prospect of Fried becoming the first woman elected as Governor in Florida, an underlying theme of Fried advertising since she went on air.

Crist leads among all racial demographics polled. About 57% of White voters go to Crist, along with 62% of Black voters, 61% of Hispanic voters and 57% of Asian or Pacific Islander voters.

Fried leads Crist in the Gainesville media market, with 42% to Crist’s 40%, and the candidates divide voters in the Panama City market. But Crist holds a lead everywhere else in the state.

And while the two candidates evenly split the under-30 crowd, with each taking 44% of the young vote, Crist leads in every other age group, taking 69% of the 70-and-over vote where only 21% prefer Fried.

The winner of the Tuesday Democratic Primary will face Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis in November.

Jacob Ogles

Jacob Ogles has covered politics in Florida since 2000 for regional outlets including SRQ Magazine in Sarasota, The News-Press in Fort Myers and The Daily Commercial in Leesburg. His work has appeared nationally in The Advocate, Wired and other publications. Events like SRQ’s Where The Votes Are workshops made Ogles one of Southwest Florida’s most respected political analysts, and outlets like WWSB ABC 7 and WSRQ Sarasota have featured his insights. He can be reached at [email protected]


25 comments

  • Elliott Offen

    August 22, 2022 at 8:47 am

    Go Charlie! We need Charlie to crush the Christian fascists, the anti-government terrorists, and the white supremacist hordes in Florida. Although he is a GOP plant who will most likely throw the election so that Ron can be elected again…we hope Charlie accidentally wins.

    • mike

      August 22, 2022 at 5:08 pm

      LOL..Ya fuckin Moron!!

      • Joe Corsin

        August 22, 2022 at 5:40 pm

        ^ Neanderthal…will be among the first to be jailed on terrorism related charges.

      • Louis

        August 22, 2022 at 8:18 pm

        So impressed with your highly intellectual comment. 😂

        • Elliott Offen

          August 22, 2022 at 8:34 pm

          Thanks. Vote Charlie for governor. You’ll receive a $10,000 gift card to Walmart. Also giving rides to the polls for $50…as in you’ll receive $50 if when you get back in the bus you can prove that you voted for Charlie.

          • Mary Beth Wise

            September 4, 2022 at 10:02 am

            Asshole conspiracy theorist!

  • Impeach Biden

    August 22, 2022 at 8:47 am

    The Red Tsunami is coming and it is headed right for the Corsin / Offen misfits.

    • Joe Corsin

      August 22, 2022 at 8:35 pm

      Yeah sounds like some evil shit there buddy. You going to hell 🔥

  • Elliott Offen

    August 22, 2022 at 9:00 am

    You heard the headline… Crist headed for victory. DeSantis is a goner…and then many of you terrorists will be beaten, arrested, killed etc.

    • Impeach Biden

      August 22, 2022 at 9:02 am

      You hope that Carlie wins. Your quote. Kind of like I hope I win the lottery. That’s not going to happen either.

      • Elliott Offen

        August 22, 2022 at 9:27 am

        Eventually DeSantis will go bye bye and you people will suffer unimaginable cruelty. This is all that matters. Your days are numbered..

        • David In Shoreline

          August 22, 2022 at 7:52 pm

          Yes, DeSantis will go bye bye (from the Governor’s Mansion) when he is elected President.

          • Elliott Offen

            August 22, 2022 at 8:38 pm

            Republicans aren’t going to be in presidential office much over the next 20 years… because of the last 20 years. Crashes, failed wars, dangerous far right movements. Everyone waking up accept you evil bastards. Eventually you will all be annihilated and face hell🔥

    • Martha

      August 23, 2022 at 9:58 pm

      That’s why we have to vote for Governor DeSantis. Because you Hitler “Brown Shirts” are going to come & arrest us? Me? Anyone that thinks differently than you, KILL us?
      That’s what the Democrat Party has become. SAD…but true.

  • Tom

    August 22, 2022 at 10:11 am

    Idiot Elliot, Corsin, Alex nut case strike again with mental recitation. Really disturbed.
    My goodness, how deranged.
    Chameleon or fraud, no chance but enjoy pretending. America’s Gov, the greatest in USA.
    2.7% unemployment, 500,000 jobs avail in Florida. 7.8% growth wage in Florida.
    Besides the above mentioned soros
    Manchurians and the other who linger on FP, it’s a DeSantis love fest! He had more in attendance at school board rallies yesterday, compared to chameleon and fraud! Enjoy losers!

    • Joe Corsin

      August 22, 2022 at 11:20 am

      Yeah right! Half the state quit their jobs in 2020 because of low wages and poor working conditions in Florida. That’s right…low wages paid by azzhole Republicans. These capitalist crooks then HAD to raise wages and straiten up a bit or they’d be out of business. Still nobody wants to work for around narcissistic Republican filth. Some would rather damn near die!!! GOP does absolutely nothing!!!

  • Best Interest

    August 22, 2022 at 10:29 am

    Nikki Fried has a much better chance to beat Dersantis. Charlie had his shot at governor, time to let the newer generation fix the mistakes and failures of those who came before!

    • Impeach Biden

      August 22, 2022 at 11:36 am

      Nikki Fried is an extremist, more suited for Kalifornia, Illinois, New York, New Jersey, D.C.

      • Impeach Biden = neo nazi

        August 22, 2022 at 12:12 pm

        You far right liar buddy. Just wait until the anti fascists take Florida. By God you people will be re-civilized if it takes the big guns of US Army tanks. By God some of you will be annihilated over next 40 years.

  • Gregg

    August 22, 2022 at 4:19 pm

    UNF Fried +4
    St Pete Polls Crist +29

    Somebody should be getting out of the polling business in 30 hours…

  • David In Shoreline

    August 22, 2022 at 7:50 pm

    Aww shucks, you mean Nikki ain’t gonna be Governor in 2023? Well don’t worry Nikki, Charlie won’t be either.

    • Joe Corsin

      August 22, 2022 at 8:31 pm

      ^ This one of those dangerous far right terrorists everyone hears about. Kind that slung poop inside the Capitol. Really loves America…

    • Impeach Biden

      August 22, 2022 at 10:15 pm

      This is the same party that brought Gillum four years ago. Imagine if that pole smoking, drug snorting moron was Governor.

      • Joe Corsin

        August 22, 2022 at 10:20 pm

        Trump? So many crimes that the death penalty is now on the table. To free him, you must munch Fat Cammack’s fat azzhole 💋🍩😭

  • Dr. Daniel S. Cronrath

    August 23, 2022 at 5:24 pm

    I guess people should just stay home and not vote then. It’s all over because a St. Pete robocall poll says it’s over while the only other poll on the race, the University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab, shows Fried up. Yet you only the robo call and play in to the Crist argument? This is a propaganda not journalism. Florida Politics should be embarrassed for posting this.

Comments are closed.


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