Another poll shows Marco Rubio with a slight edge over Val Demings

demings vs. rubio
Insider Advantage conducted the poll for Fox 35 Orlando.

Polling continues to show U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio clinging to a lead over Democrat Val Demings, but remaining short of majority support.

An Insider Advantage poll, commissioned for Fox 35 Orlando, shows the incumbent winning over 46% of respondents while Demings takes 44% of the vote. That leaves the Senator in a winning position — but barely.

“As usual in Florida, the race will be decided by voter turnout,” Insider Advantage founder Matt Towery said in an interview on the network.

Crosstabs were not immediately available. The poll was conducted Sept. 5 and 6 with responses from 550 likely Florida voters.

Towery noted the results showed similar findings to other polls included in the RealClearPolitics polling index. That includes an AARP poll first released to Florida Politics that showed Rubio at 49% to Demings’ 47%, and a Susquehanna poll that Rubio at 47% and Demings with 44%.

All three polls were taken after Demings formally won the Democratic nomination for Senate in an Aug. 23 Primary.

While all show a tight contest, Towery noted they all also show Rubio with a lead.

“It means Rubio is going to have to count on a strong Republican turnout,” Towery said. “Republicans do have an advantage in this state in terms of registered voters, something which had not been the case until recent years. So I think this is a tight race, one to watch that probably should be on the national radar screen as a tight race, but right now, the consensus is Rubio has a slight lead, probably at two to three points.”

Other polls have signaled that Rubio, a two-term Senator and former presidential candidate, enjoys higher name recognition than Demings, a three-term Congresswoman best known in the Orlando area.

Demings notably has overperformed Rubio as far as fundraising, having raised upward of $46 million as of Aug. 3 while Rubio sat just under $37 million as of the end of June. But whether that can help make up the difference in most polls remains to be seen.

Jacob Ogles

Jacob Ogles has covered politics in Florida since 2000 for regional outlets including SRQ Magazine in Sarasota, The News-Press in Fort Myers and The Daily Commercial in Leesburg. His work has appeared nationally in The Advocate, Wired and other publications. Events like SRQ’s Where The Votes Are workshops made Ogles one of Southwest Florida’s most respected political analysts, and outlets like WWSB ABC 7 and WSRQ Sarasota have featured his insights. He can be reached at [email protected].


  • ScienceBLVR

    September 9, 2022 at 9:42 am

    Way to go Val in beating Marco at his own fund raising game. There may be more registered Republicans in FL right now than Democrats, but Jacob is correct, it all comes down to voter turn out. And a lot of Floridians just don’t like Marco- he’s such a useless whiner who has yet to focus on representing the folks who did vote for him, And the biggest misstep the R’s have made this cycle comes down to the SCOTUS decision regarding women’s reproductive rights. We know polls aren’t always right especially when the results are within the margin of error. If the women come out.. Marco is burnt toast.

    • Impeach Biden

      September 9, 2022 at 10:01 am

      Again you Democrats want to make this an issue in Florida when it really is not. Abortions are legal up to fifteen weeks. Over 90% of the abortions comply with the law. You Democrats have nothing else to run on so you attempt to make this a primary voting issue. Let’s talk about forty year high inflation. Let’s talk about record high fuel prices. Let’s talk about rampant crime. Let’s talk about the Southern Border chaos. Let’s talk about defunding the police. Did any of you see that feeble, frail old man (Biden) signing the Queen’s condolence book? He had a cheat sheet in hand and completely transcribed it into the book. Unbelievable. It probably brought back memories to Joe of his college / law school days plagiarizing and copying. What an idiot.

      • Mr. T

        September 9, 2022 at 11:41 am

        What you doin making fun of people with impediments? Gonna get yo ass whipped if you come outta them gatdamn woods CRACKER!!!

        • Avy115

          September 9, 2022 at 4:51 pm

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        • Hope

          September 11, 2022 at 9:23 am

          Sit down, be quiet and take all your silly aliases for a long walk off a short pier..

      • ScienceBLVR

        September 9, 2022 at 12:44 pm

        Sorry Peachy, Republican and Independent women have wombs, also, not just Democrats, so they may think this is an important issue to their wellbeing and freedom. And again, you are always off topic with the same ole FOX talking points. This post is about the odds of Rubio beating Val.. and if you think bashing Biden at every turn is going to supersede a woman’s right to choose what happens to her body, even if she lives in Florida, Man, are you clueless. I know you are a blatant misogynist in your posts, especially when it comes to strong independent women. i don’t know what gender you identify as, but I would guess you are insecure male as women rarely bash their own.

        • Lin

          September 19, 2022 at 10:22 pm

          You go Science believer!

      • marylou

        September 9, 2022 at 3:57 pm

        When the government believes they own you and have a god-given right to insert themselves into your body, it becomes more important than the price of a dozen eggs.

        Desantis will do what the Catholic Church demands, just like he did when he vetoed contraceptives for poor women because CC says birth control aborts fertilized eggs! What do you think his church says about aborting fetuses?
        Women are going to vote just like they did in Kansas. Why do you imagine Desantis has shut his smug mouth on abortion?

        • Hope

          September 11, 2022 at 9:10 am

          Here she goes again.. Typhoid Mary is toxic to humanity.

      • Ocean Joe

        September 9, 2022 at 6:18 pm

        Only a Tory/Republican would care about the Queen’s condolence book. If you guys had been in charge in the 1700’s, America would still be a colony.
        Glad you didn’t burn the capitol this last time, just smear excrement and fight the police you worry about defunding.

  • Val Demings

    September 9, 2022 at 4:23 pm

    Mmmm hmmm. Gonna send that cracker Marco Boobio back to Cuba on a reverse banana boat.

  • Paul

    September 9, 2022 at 9:03 pm

    Know this before you vote this November.
    *Democrat party, Charlie Crist and Val Demings support the following policy’s:*
    *Support Biden’s tax increases.
    *Student Loan Forgiveness tax (10 trillion over 10 years)
    * Inflation Act ( more Tax, note- there wasn’t inflation until the Biden administration took office.)
    *Biden’s Open borders policy (2.3 million have crossed to date) more tax for the middle class.
    *Both oppose Voter ID.
    *Both opposed to the wall, (Demings voted against the wall.) Fentanl pouring across our border.
    *Crist & Demings support teaching small children 10 years and up. Critical Race Theory (who is a racist, LGBTQ, gender identity.)This with the USA falling far behind internationally in math, science and history.
    *School same sex restrooms (middle & high school.)
    * Support convicts the right to vote from State & Federal Prisons.
    *Terminating oil usage costing taxpayers costing thousands of jobs & drove gas price to historic highs.
    * Abortions with no restrictions.
    *Both support reparations from white Americans.
    *Demanding American citizens buy electric vehicles when buying oil from other countries who pollute the environment.
    *De-fund the Police, Democrats are very weak on crime.
    *Both support early release, no bail releases.
    *Both support Gun control.

    • Charlie Crist

      September 9, 2022 at 9:11 pm

      👆This is a bunch of far right manure, poo poo propaganda, Trumpian lies. Vote for me. I’ll take guys like this to the cleaners…yeah grab him by the hair and just whip him around like a ragdoll.

      • Arnold Gibbs

        September 10, 2022 at 1:54 pm

        Really Charlie, poo poo propaganda, what are you doing talking like a 4 yo. Is that a candidate you what to become Governor?

        • Charlie Crist

          September 10, 2022 at 4:47 pm

          @Arnold: Ok then..what he said was bullshit.

      • Hope

        September 11, 2022 at 9:30 am

        No, you are wrong again! One only has to look as far as Tallahassee a few weeks ago when two Democratic Party candidates hired an Obama Campaign strategist as their campaign manager. They were also the two candidates that had raised the most campaign contributions. The only problem was neither had a platform, plan, or any political accomplishments. The one who had raised the most money lost by seven points and the other came in second and will face a runoff in November.

        The Democratic Party agenda is to simply criticize their opponents thinking that is an effective campaign strategy. Even the Democrats are on to this ridiculous strategy and the state of the country and know that Democrats are not going to be elected or re-elected due to their abysmal record.

    • marylou

      September 10, 2022 at 12:19 pm

      So many inaccuracies and BS, but here’s a few:
      — Biden’s tax increases are only on the top 1% and corporations, some of whom receive $ billions income/profits, but pay $0 taxes.
      — Rich and corporations receive $B in taxpayer subsidies and benefits (ex Musk), but you cry over a few $thousand student loan forgiveness to Americans who do the actual work to make profits for the freeloading rich.
      — Inflation Act affects taxing of the rich, and, as you know, inflation is world-wide. Biden can’t control that.
      — CRT is not taught in K-12 schools.
      — There are two jobs available for every worker. That’s what Republicans like Rubio, Scott, and Desantis have been crying about! Republicans need to stop trying to push stupid and harmful ideas by chanting “Jobs, Jobs, Jobs” to frighten Americans every time they want to do something that hurts the country.
      — Smearing all abortions by screaming about “no restrictions” won’t work. People support a woman’s right to freedom from a Christian Nationalist Government that thinks it has a God-given right to insert itself into women’s bodies and families’ lives.
      btw, Benjamin Franklin published an abortion recipe and instructions in his textbook that women had–and used–in their homes. You are the extremist.
      — Crist, Demings, and Biden do not want to “defund” the police. Demings is tough on crime– much more so than Rubio.
      — Reasonable gun control only. Desantis supports gun control — at his own rallies. Same for NRA and SCOTUS! Assault weapons are not in the Constitution, for those of you Constitutional Scholars who think you look smart by parroting nonsense.

      * Radical Rubio has said he wants to require women to get PERMISSION from a man if they want to be ALLOWED to have an abortion.
      * Desantis’s own party says this about Desantis’s plan to force women to give birth: “The strategy is obvious. Do it after the gubernatorial so as to not piss off suburban women, then screw them over after the election in order to appease fire-breathing pro-lifers in a presidential primary.”
      * Desantis has already twice vetoed contraceptives for high risk women because the Catholic Church preached to him it’s abortion of a fertilized egg! What do you think that says about Desantis’s plan for abortions of embryos and fetuses?

      • Elliott Offen

        September 10, 2022 at 4:53 pm

        Jobs, jobs, jobs…that don’t pay living wages. That last part is what everyone leaves out. Ask not what a company or place of business can do for you…but what you can do for a place of business. In 20 years, people will be showing up for work for a can of soup and to get out of the rain…and that’s it. Basically just something to do with their time because there won’t be much money involved for the worker.

      • Dan

        September 11, 2022 at 10:51 am

        Tax increases are going to happen across the board. In fact the GOP offered an amendment to Biden’s law that would ban tax increases on the middle class. It was the Democrats that voted it down. They are going to increase your taxes.

        And there are many things Biden can do to slow inflation. Stop spending money like crazy is one. The more money we print the worse inflation is going to get. We are $30 trillion in debt. And yet we keep sending billions of dollars to Ukraine. We can also stop crippling our entire energy sector. Biden is refusing to expand capacity for oil, gas, and nuclear. All this money for solar and wind and it’s going to cripple us! The Germans and French are finding out the hard way that solar and wind alone doesn’t provide enough to power the grids. So they ended up buying a ton of energy from Russia. Now Europeans are going to be facing a very cold winter because their energy prices are skyrocketting.

        And you liberals want to do that here? Look at California which now wants to ban gas powered cars. Their electric grid is already failing. They are doing rolling blackouts. And in Colorado the government is trying to take control of people’s thermostats. Yet you want to move the entire country to electric cars? Where are you going to get the energy for that? Russia?

        It’s unreal how completely stupid you liberals are.

        • Hope

          September 12, 2022 at 1:01 am

          Well stated, Dan!

    • Daniel Welch

      September 21, 2022 at 4:26 pm

      Still better than voting for Trump’s devoted supporters, BTW, Trump is being sued (AGAIN). Trump is such a corrupt criminal that brings the worse in any politician, sadly, the Republic Party keeps betting on him.

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