Polling continues to show U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio clinging to a lead over Democrat Val Demings, but remaining short of majority support.
An Insider Advantage poll, commissioned for Fox 35 Orlando, shows the incumbent winning over 46% of respondents while Demings takes 44% of the vote. That leaves the Senator in a winning position — but barely.
“As usual in Florida, the race will be decided by voter turnout,” Insider Advantage founder Matt Towery said in an interview on the network.
Crosstabs were not immediately available. The poll was conducted Sept. 5 and 6 with responses from 550 likely Florida voters.
Towery noted the results showed similar findings to other polls included in the RealClearPolitics polling index. That includes an AARP poll first released to Florida Politics that showed Rubio at 49% to Demings’ 47%, and a Susquehanna poll that Rubio at 47% and Demings with 44%.
All three polls were taken after Demings formally won the Democratic nomination for Senate in an Aug. 23 Primary.
While all show a tight contest, Towery noted they all also show Rubio with a lead.
“It means Rubio is going to have to count on a strong Republican turnout,” Towery said. “Republicans do have an advantage in this state in terms of registered voters, something which had not been the case until recent years. So I think this is a tight race, one to watch that probably should be on the national radar screen as a tight race, but right now, the consensus is Rubio has a slight lead, probably at two to three points.”
Other polls have signaled that Rubio, a two-term Senator and former presidential candidate, enjoys higher name recognition than Demings, a three-term Congresswoman best known in the Orlando area.
Demings notably has overperformed Rubio as far as fundraising, having raised upward of $46 million as of Aug. 3 while Rubio sat just under $37 million as of the end of June. But whether that can help make up the difference in most polls remains to be seen.