Peter Schorsch
Candidates for Florida’s 13th Congressional District are locked in a dead heat, according to the latest survey results from St. Pete Polls.
The two are separated by less than 1 percentage point, with Republican Anna Paulina Luna posting 45.9% support to Democrat Eric Lynn’s 45.3% support. Nearly 9% of those polled are still undecided.
The candidates are running to replace Democrat Charlie Crist, who left office amid a bid for Governor.
Strategically, there is good news for Lynn in the poll. More of his supporters have already voted than Luna’s, which means her campaign will need to ensure those who haven’t already cast a ballot do so by Election Day. Meanwhile, Lynn can focus his efforts on luring undecided voters. More than 12% of those polled who are still undecided have yet to vote.
Of those surveyed, more than 56% of Lynn’s supporters said they had already voted while only 39% of Luna’s supporters had already cast a ballot.
Lynn is drawing more cross-party support than his opponent. Only 7% of Democrats indicated they planned to vote for Luna, while 16% of Republicans said they would vote for Lynn.
However, Lynn has ground to make up among independent voters. Of those, more than half are backing Luna while only 40% are supporting Lynn.
Compared to other Democrats, Lynn is performing well among White voters. Luna leads the demographic, but by less than 3 percentage points. Lynn has a significant advantage among Black voters, at 56% support to Luna’s 12%. And there are plenty of voters yet to capture, with 32% of Black voters indicating they are still undecided.
Lynn’s performance is largely buoyed by younger voters, with more than 45% of those aged 18-29 backing the Democrat, compared to 40% for Luna. Meanwhile, she has slight leads among voters 30-49 and 50-69. The two are statistically tied among voters 70 and older.
Luna ran in the district two years ago, losing to Crist. Redistricting has since shifted district boundaries to favor Republicans. Under previous district boundaries, Democrats had about a 16,000-voter advantage. Under new boundaries, which shifted north to include areas with a heavy GOP advantage, Republicans now have about 33,000 more voters than Democrats, according to the most recent L2 voter data.
Lynn’s campaign has attempted to overcome the deficit, running as a moderate Democrat and playing up Luna as an extreme Republican aligned with former President Donald Trump, his “big lie” that Joe Biden didn’t win the 2020 Presidential Election, and far-right policies. The strategy is to bring in moderate Republican voters and independents, while still winning over Democrats.
Lynn currently has a full-forced digital ad playing on social media doing just that, using clips from the Tampa Bay Times recommendation for him over Luna. That recommendation points to Luna’s self-described position as a “pro-life extremist,” her support for Texas’ abortion law that bans most abortions at about six weeks of pregnancy and her doubts about the 2020 election.
The Times worries her comments and political positions could lead her to “join the ranks of Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene, Lauren Boebert and others in Congress who consistently embrace conspiracy theories, spread lies and undermine the democratic process.”
The St. Pete Polls survey was taken Oct. 26-27 among 509 likely CD 13 General Election voters. It has a margin of error of 4.3 percentage points.
11 comments
Phil Morton
October 30, 2022 at 7:19 am
A little momentum for Eric Lynn going into the last week of voting. We could use more of this in other close races. Vote!
Tom
October 30, 2022 at 7:50 am
Morton, u gots fingers and toes crossed.
Luna wins by 4%, we will win Election Day!
Very impressive public servant she is, military service etc. She will be a great member of Congress. Sorry Morton.
Republican Voter For Lynn
October 30, 2022 at 7:55 pm
She is a narcissistic vapid carpetbagger. Anyone who refuses to debate should never be allowed to represent us
Dave
November 1, 2022 at 6:33 am
Anna is lying about the cause of inflation and do=esn’t have an economic thought in her head…it’s not because of Biden policies, if it was we’d have to blame Trump, his spending is many times more than the current administration and Biden’s bills have returns form employment and taxes top fund the spending…blame high gas prices on oil companies higher profit margins…not normal margins but double , a greedy grab while the grabbing is good…the price of oil on the world market is controlled by the producers of the product…while barrel prices have dropped the price of gas has not moved as much…late term abortions are not pushed by any one, they are extreme life saving procedures in rare cases to save the life of the mother…it’s not something anyone is advocating without extreme needs…Anna is lacking any background….oh, but she supports election deniers and Trump!….that’s no high honor, it’s traitorous!
Tom
October 30, 2022 at 7:50 am
Morton, u gots fingers and toes crossed.
Luna wins by 4%, we will win Election Day!
Very impressive public servant she is, military service etc. She will be a great member of Congress. Sorry Morton.
Eric Lynn
October 30, 2022 at 9:06 am
Sigh. If 56% of Lynn voters have voted and 39% of Luna voters have voted and both are in a “statistical tie” this does not bode well fit Lynn. I know you at FP are hoping and pushing him to get elected but this “poll” does not show it.
Ben Gustafson
October 30, 2022 at 8:25 pm
This election is about preserving our democracy for future generations. The Rule of Law, free and fair elections, and sound-minded, qualified, and experienced leadership are personified in only one candidate. His name is Eric Lynn🇺🇸
Kyle Prescott
October 30, 2022 at 9:15 pm
Lynn =Biden so he has no shot this year. It’s as simple as that.
Dave
November 1, 2022 at 6:37 am
Biden has been successful on most things, blaming him for inflation because of some high spending is a specious argument, I can state factually, Trump spent many trillions more and not a peep about his worst trade deficits in history, causing inflation from his stupid tariffs, caused first price increases on our own agricultural products, cut off our world trade partners, Trump tanked the economy and handed over one of the worst economies…he inherited one off the longest sustained growth economies and blew it all away, supporting Anna is supporting Trump, that’s traitorous in the minds of reasonable humans.
Jim
November 2, 2022 at 9:57 am
I’m going to fill you in on a little secret. The President has little to almost no effect or control on the economy. When I see people blaming economic conditions on past presidents it just tells me they have no clue what the hell they’re voting for.
Edward Alexander
November 3, 2022 at 3:39 pm
Why would anyone vote for a former strip club worker who was kicked out of the Air Force and from California. She has no experience in government and has only been in Florida for a few years at most. It just goes to show you that those who vote for Anna are uninformed and ignorant. I am a Republican and put my support behind Eric Lynn who has experience and is a family man with three children. Anna has no children and divorced and then re-maried the same man. That just shows you that she can not make up here mind. Not only that she has abused the legal system by unsuccessfully filing stalking injunctions against anyone who tried to tell the truth about her, including a family member. Who does that? All one has to do is read the stories about her on the Central Florida Post website.
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