Karen Cyphers
#1. About 1 in 12 Florida voters weren’t registered to vote in the state in 2020
Next week, Florida’s 2022 General Election will close, with many of Florida’s 14.5 million registered voters deciding who will hold various state and federal offices for the next two, four, or six years. Since the last time Floridians cast ballots in a statewide election in November 2020, nearly 1.2 million new voters have registered to take part in this civic act. That means that about one in 12 Florida voters today weren’t on the rolls two years ago.
Who are these newly registered voters, and how do they compare with the universe of voters already on the rolls? Our research division at Sachs Media conducted an analysis to identify demographic differences between then and “new,” with some stark findings — particularly relating to party affiliation.
Many have noted an overall growing registration advantage for Republicans in Florida. But beneath the surface, a lot more is going on.
#2. Party registration is shifting away from Democrats to nonpartisan affiliation
In November 2020, about as many voters were registered as Democrats (35%) as Republicans (36%), with the remaining 29% unaffiliated with either major party.
Among those who have registered since November 2020 (“new voters”) the share identifying as Democrats declined 13 points to 23%, while the portion affiliating with NEITHER party jumped 11 points to 40%. Meanwhile, Republican registration is about equal, with 37% of new voters checking that box.
This means that Florida’s growing Republican registration advantage is due largely to the share of voters consistently held by the GOP, combined with significant movement away from Democrats and toward nonpartisans.
#3. Democratic registration is down across the board, including among young voters, and those of every race and ethnicity
The portion of new voters who register as Democrats is down among every demographic group. Take voters younger than 35, for example: Two years ago, four in 10 were registered Democrats. And yet since then, barely more than one-quarter of new voters (26%) in this age group affiliate this way — a significant drop-off. On the other hand, nearly half of young new voters (47%) are unaffiliated with either party and 27% are Republicans.
This same pattern is seen among those ages 35-54 and ages 55 and older — Republican registration is up a few points over November 2020, but the real shift is from Democrats to nonpartisan affiliation.
Breakdowns by race and ethnicity are equally telling.
In 2020, “Democrat” was the chosen party affiliation of 27% of white voters, 76% of Black voters and 35% of Hispanic voters. Among new voters registered since 2020, the numbers show a clear shift, at 16%, 55%, and 26%, respectively. In other words, the portion of new Black voters who align as Democrats is about 25% lower than what was seen in Florida’s 2020 voter file.
Meanwhile, Republican registration is steady across the board — within two percentage points for all groups.
#4. The gap between female and male registration is narrowing
In November 2020, women (54%) made up a significantly greater portion of the electorate than did men (45%). Yet among Floridians who have registered to vote since, half are men (50%) and half (50%) women. While female turnout rates may continue to exceed those of men, it’s notable to see such a swift balancing in registration alone.
Not surprisingly, the age distribution of new voters is significantly younger than those who were already in Florida’s voter rolls in November 2020. Specifically, 42% of new voters are younger than 35, compared with 29% in the existing voter rolls. This likely reflects a mass of first-time voters, who either aged into eligibility or became motivated to register for the first time.
#5. Proportionally more of Florida’s newest voters are registered in smaller counties
Finally, the geographic location of Florida’s new voters looks a bit different from the state as a whole, with proportionally more new voters living outside of the state’s largest counties. For example, while 10.5% of Florida voters lived in Miami-Dade and 8.6% lived in Broward in November 2020, just 7.9% and 6.5% of new registrations were within these two large counties since then.
Meanwhile, new registrations in smaller counties such as Lee, Osceola, and Sumter accounted for a larger share of the state’s new voters than they did of the overall voter rolls two years ago.
So, what does it all mean?
To be clear, the party breakdown in today’s Florida voter roll still looks much like it did in November 2020 — but the differences seen between 2020 voters and those who have registered in the past two years show a dramatic shift away from the Democratic Party and toward nonpartisanship. If these trends continue, the voter composition 10 years from now could look very different indeed.
If the shift toward nonpartisan affiliation was evenly distributed, with comparable registration declines for both Democrats and Republicans, it would be much easier to suggest that the composition of new voters reflects a large-scale rejection of the traditional party structure. But that’s not what we see here. Rather, a meaningful portion of voters who would have once been Democrats are now registering as unaffiliated, while the share of Republicans stayed consistent.
What remains to be seen is how all those new registrants will actually vote, regardless of the party name (or lack thereof) on their registration card. For that, stay tuned.
Our Sachs Media survey of Florida’s new voters is in the works.
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Karen Cyphers, Ph.D., is a partner at Sachs Media and faculty at Florida State University. She can be reached at [email protected].
15 comments
JD
November 4, 2022 at 7:37 am
NPA’s. This is the way.
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WBA
November 6, 2022 at 11:53 am
I can understand why people would rather register as NPA. Democrats and Republicans have been drifting away from the center for year, but I would suggest that the increasing number of NPA voters are causing this. In the past the voters that are now NPAs were what constituted the moderate Dems and Reps. Many states only allow registered Dems to select the Democrat nominee and the same for Republicans. As the moderates disappear, both of these parties have been selecting more extreme candidate. As a result, we end up with General Elections where we have to choose between the lesser of two evils.
Real Tom
November 4, 2022 at 8:11 am
Register blue..not neo nazi grifter, shill for billionaires. Money doesn’t trickle down.
Common 'Tater
November 4, 2022 at 9:00 am
Commentators here like to push people to go blue, but turning blue is a sign of asphyxiation, and that it what is happening to Democrats, ever since Obama arrived, and it only accelerated when Biden was nominated. You can spin numbers, but it is undeniable that progressivism has cost the Democrats dearly.
AOC may be cute, but her politics is draining her party, as we are about to see. Eric Lynn knows it–he won’t even admit to being D.
Jolly is on record telling the Ds to go mainstream. MSNBC was praising Sen. Manchin yesterday. Even the choice of Biden in 2020 was a tacit admission that wild-ass leftism couldn’t be sold, but they didn’t realize he was so weak he would cave to the left like he did. Disaster. He’s gotta go. Crist is trying to call himself a tax cutter. Too little, too late. Register blue? Choke to death.
Elliott Offen
November 4, 2022 at 9:53 am
👆 Right wing propaganda. Obama was a good president and the neo nazi shills for billionaires obstructed and sabotaged government while the far right worked on the population with false information, hate, and racism. Biden beat the idiot that you idiots put in there in 2016 (and look where Trump got everyone.) The dope just sat on his balls and insulted people for four years while the economy overheated. All this crap about the “Dems being done” is just more lies. They win presidential elections more than the neo nazi party and these midterms tend to go the other way regardless. Not to mention Georgia is now blue. Florida has been getting a lot of the dregs of NYC and New Jersey lately so no wonder it’s getting fked up. DeSantis encourages carpet baggers and other snake oil salesmen to come here and drive up prices. Nobody who is already here wants them here.
Lex Taylor
November 4, 2022 at 9:27 am
Great and Interesting Read. I think the Democratic Party is on a suicide path and more and more are realizing it. They are destroying the dollar and hurting the very people they attest to protect. Where the Democratic Party is supposed to serve as the “heart” of the country and the Republican Party the “brain”. Both should have some balance. If the Left did not control media and social media, they would have to bring down both the “other” rhetoric, but also temper their policies to where they can be rationally implemented. The goal of getting off fossil fuels is admirable; I see nothing admirable in their plan to attain the goal. The Left’s climate policies are inflationary, and they are hurting the little guy. I think more and more people can see these things and it’s my hope that the “heart” of the country will start using a little more of its brain, be kinder to the other side, and not see everything as a winner take all.
Joe Corsin
November 4, 2022 at 9:59 am
Yeah the Republicans really showed the world that they were the brains of America when they elected a billionaire and far right mad mad in 2016. Then went ahead and tried it again in 2020! What brains did he or any of his voters have at all? What in the hell are you talking about? The snake oil salesmen ran to cut his own taxes and entertain other trolls for Christ sakes!!!
Mr. Haney
November 4, 2022 at 1:06 pm
Typical idiot.
just sayin
November 4, 2022 at 2:22 pm
The vitriolic responses to your quite reasonable post are why the Dems are in so much trouble this cycle. There’s no ability to see the other side.
marylou
November 4, 2022 at 6:28 pm
“The GOP is flooding the media with a bunch of junky polls right now, claiming to predict a red wave.When that doesn’t happen, what do you think the explanation will be?”–Lawyers, Guns & Money
Nationally, Democrats are doing much better than expected and reported:
——https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2022/11/early-voting-results-very-encouraging-for-dems
Yrral
November 6, 2022 at 7:12 am
Lots of young people are leaving Florida, because of the lack of opportunities, leaving Florida with an mostly elderly population,if you were elderly and need medical assistance,you will not probably find it in Florida, because lots of young healthcare workers are headed to Houston,were they can find jobs and housing,so they will be left to fend for themselves as the young leave Florida,you can still vote today in some counties today ,ahead of the storm
marylou
November 6, 2022 at 11:16 am
Republican plans for YOUR Social Security & Medicare:
“They’re threatening to force the U.S. government to default on the federal debt, likely triggering a global financial crisis … unless Democrats agree to cutting these vital programs.”
—–Bloomberg Government, “Entitlement, Spending Cap Plans Linked by GOP to Debt-Limit Deal,” October 11, 2022.
marylou
November 6, 2022 at 11:04 am
Seniors, people who care about seniors, and anyone who plans to become a senior in the future should turn off Fox because they are intentionally misleading YOU!
Republicans are trying to hide the fact that they are planning to cut YOUR Social Security and Medicare. They even want to sunset the programs every 5 years— a couple Republican senators are saying every 1 year! Can you actually imagine the House and Senate passing a law for YOU every year?
REPUBLICANS ONLY VOTE FOR THE WEALTHY!
VOTE OUT REPUBLICANS!
Yrral
November 6, 2022 at 7:51 pm
Hurricane Nicole poise to impact Florida this week Google Tropical Atlantic Model Cycle
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