Ron DeSantis tops Donald Trump in 2024 poll of Tennessee Republicans

Fresh polling from Tennessee affirms an increasingly familiar message regarding Republicans and the 2024 Presidential Primary.

In a survey conducted by Vanderbilt University between Nov. 8 and 28, Gov. Ron DeSantis scored yet another double-digit poll win over former President Donald Trump.

DeSantis was the choice of 54% of registered Republicans, with Trump drawing 41% backing in a binary (and still very much hypothetical) matchup.

Splits are evident in the Vanderbilt polling. Sixty percent of so-called “MAGA Republicans” back Trump. Yet 66% of non-MAGA Republicans back DeSantis.  And Vanderbilt’s own analysis notes that, despite DeSantis’ win in the hypothetical two-man battle, a more crowded field could work to the former President’s advantage.

“It would be premature to think Trump cannot win the Republican nomination — the fact that he has a solid base of supporters among the MAGA vote could be a path to the nomination ,” reads a press release on the survey. “Republicans use a winner-take-all system for allocating primaries. If the anti-Trump vote is split among two or three candidates, the former president could have the support of enough delegates to capture the nomination.”

“Trump’s support has waned, but there’s still a clear path for Trump to win the nomination,” said Vanderbilt Professor John Geer, analyzing the poll. “The differences between MAGA Republicans and non-MAGA Republicans also pose a problem for Republicans as they try to govern over the next two years.”

Despite the caveats, the Tennessee poll continues a trend of Republican respondents expressing willingness to dump Trump and elevate DeSantis in state polls.

A survey of 500 likely North Carolina GOP Primary voters conducted this month for Axios by Differentiators Data showed DeSantis with a commanding lead in that state as well.

DeSantis was the choice of 56% of those polled, with 35% choosing Trump, when “leaners” were factored into the survey. Among those who say they are certain to vote, the spread is even bigger: 54% for DeSantis against just 30% for Trump.

In the weeks since Election Day, other single-state polls have also gone DeSantis’ way.

A November survey from the Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics showed that of Republicans who intended to vote in the 2024 Primary (75% of the 802 total polled), 29% would vote for DeSantis, 19% for Trump, and 12% for former U.S. Rep. Liz Cheney of Wyoming.

The Posterity PAC released Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada polling showing DeSantis up double digits in all three states, with the Governor up 28 points over Trump in New Hampshire.

Pennsylvania Republicans prefer DeSantis to Trump, according to a poll conducted by Commonwealth Partners between Nov. 19 and Nov. 21. That survey showed DeSantis commanding 45% support, 5 percentage points ahead of Trump at 40%.

The same holds true in Texas, where a poll conducted by the state GOP and CWS Research shows DeSantis ahead of Trump. In a field including Trump and a number of other candidates, DeSantis holds a double-digit edge with 43% support, good for an 11-point lead.

A pre-election Georgia poll pitting Trump against DeSantis shows the Florida Governor ahead 52% to 36%. Echelon Insights conducted that poll between Oct. 31 and Nov.  2, and the results comport with other Georgia polling this cycle showing DeSantis getting support in the Peach State over Trump.

Polling from Club for Growth tells a similar story: In Florida, DeSantis led Trump 56% to 30%. Georgia Republicans favored DeSantis, 55% to 35%. These surveys accord with polling from Florida and Georgia before the election showing Trump losing his grip on the GOP.

These trends held in early states also. In New Hampshire, DeSantis also had majority support, up over Trump 52% to 37%. And in Iowa, where the caucus system prevails, DeSantis was up 48% to 37%.

Despite the state polling trending DeSantis’ way, national polling is still favorable to Trump on occasion.

A National Public Radio/PBS Newshour/Marist Poll conducted Dec. 6 through Dec. 8 shows Trump is ahead of DeSantis nationally with Republican and GOP-leaning independent voters, in a three-way matchup that includes former Vice President Mike Pence.

Though polling generally has shown a trend favorable to DeSantis, especially in the weeks since the November election, this survey shows Trump with a 16-point lead among all respondents. The former President had a near majority, with 45% of the tally, 12 points ahead of DeSantis at 33%. “Someone else” came in at 11%, with the former Vice President garnering just 8% support.