A.G. Gancarski
It remains to be seen whether U.S. Rep.-elect Kevin McCarthy of California has given Republican critics everything they want, but his odds of being elected Speaker are improving, according to oddsmakers.
The U.S. House is entering its third day of votes for Speaker, and OddsChecker contends the former Minority Leader may yet wield the gavel as the replacement for former Democratic Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
“There was news last night that McCarthy had promised nearly everything that his detractors wanted in negotiations. Something that seemed to move the needle in his favor, though it only takes five holdouts to ruin his candidacy. We’ll soon see if McCarthy’s concessions were enough to move the needle, the books certainly think so. However, Steve Scalise is waiting just behind him if McCarthy’s latest attempts to broker a deal fall short,” asserted OddsChecker spox Kyle Newman Thursday morning.
Through Wednesday’s voting, Floridian Byron Donalds got 20 votes, more than enough to hold McCarthy not just short of a majority, but also short of New Jersey Democrat Hakeem Jeffries. But OddsChecker suggests McCarthy is in control, with Scalise entrenched as a strong second choice.
“McCarthy is now given -160 odds, or an implied 61.5% chance to become Speaker. An improvement on the -150 odds, 60% chance, that he was given at 10 a.m. yesterday morning. However, Scalise has also seen his odds improve from +200 to +175, or a change from an implied 33.3% chance to a 36.4% chance.”
Other candidates, including Jeffries, are on the margins: “Every other candidate on the market has seen their odds drop, except Hakeem Jeffries who remains stagnant at +2500, or an implied 3.8% chance. Elise Stefanik has dropped from +1600 to +2500. Jim Jordan dropped from +1000 to +5000. Byron Donalds has dropped from +3300 to +3500, as has Donald Trump.”
The PredictIt market shows a similar dynamic, with McCarthy in front-runner status according to those playing the prediction space. Scalise, a strong second, was briefly ahead of McCarthy Wednesday evening, as uncertainty loomed about what the House might do that evening. The decision to adjourn prevailing was seen as a sign of McCarthy’s strength, and the trend summarily reversed in the Californian’s favor.
