Oddsmakers say Nikki Haley now a better General Election bet than Ron DeSantis

Nikki Haley deSantis
Florida's Governor is still ahead of Haley in the GOP nomination markets, however.

Ron DeSantis is now perceived by 2024 election market bettors as having the third best chance of any Republican candidate to win the General Election.

According to Election Betting Odds, which aggregates the Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt and Polymarket platforms, Nikki Haley has eclipsed the Florida Governor overall as of Monday afternoon.

The former South Carolina Governor is seen as having a 3.6% chance of winning outright, with DeSantis at 3.3%. Both are far behind former President Donald Trump, who has a 34.5% chance of winning a second term, the best odds of anyone in the field.

A group of Democrats (and one newly minted independent presidential candidate) are somewhere in between Trump and his lesser-regarded rivals.

President Joe Biden, at 33.6%, is considered to be the second most likely to win the 2024 election.

Biden is followed by two non-candidates. California Gov. Gavin Newsom, who is expected to debate DeSantis next month on Fox News, has a 7% chance of winning. Former First Lady Michelle Obama, who also has given no indications of running, has a 5.1% chance of election next year.

The two Democrats are followed by someone who just hours ago said he was no longer running as a Democrat. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has a 4.5% chance of being the second Kennedy to win the presidency, also leading Haley and the Florida Governor.

In better news for DeSantis, he’s still seen as the second most likely Republican to win election next November.

While Trump is seen as having a 76.5% chance of winning the GOP nomination, DeSantis’ 7.5% odds are ahead of Haley’s 6.3%.

The Haley surge in betting markets comes as some polling sees her having attained parity with DeSantis nationally. Additionally, polls say she has overtaken DeSantis for second place in New Hampshire and her home state.

A.G. Gancarski

A.G. Gancarski has written for FloridaPolitics.com since 2014. He is based in Northeast Florida. He can be reached at [email protected] or on Twitter: @AGGancarski


  • My Take

    October 9, 2023 at 5:16 pm

    The only thing I don’t like about this is it will take some of Trumpy’s fire off of DeSScumtus.

  • Unwoke and Going Broke In Florida

    October 9, 2023 at 5:25 pm

    Rahdwa isn’t smart, isn’t able to point to progress of any measure in South Carolina and might be a good greeter at Wal-Mart.


  • Earl Pitts American

    October 9, 2023 at 8:51 pm

    Good evening America,
    The oddsmakers had a glitch of some sort just prior to sending this story outline over to A. G. for publishing here at our benevolant and beloved online host F. P.
    Right after their blurb about Michelle O. there is a missing section which I am providing as a public service below:
    Right after the Michelle O part – this is what was accidently left out:
    ***”Earl Pitts American – the planet’s go-to-political-Guru, who also has given no indications of running, has a 75.1% chance of election next year should the esteamed Earl Pitts American choose to run”.***
    Thank you America,
    Earl Pitts American
    * no shade casting attempt on our Ace Reporter A. G. Intended it was the “Election Betting Dudes” that made the totally unintential error of accidently leaving out the informative statistics on Earl Pitts American.*

    • Rick Whitaker

      October 10, 2023 at 7:55 am

      earl shits on america, stop that. no one wants to hear your lies. your little boy desantis got a f at school and you blame the teacher. the polls gave desantis a f and you blame the polls. not too smart you dingbat.

      • Earl Pitts "Political Scientist" American

        October 10, 2023 at 11:23 am

        Your right Rick,
        That teacher that gave The Ronald a bad grade did discriminate against little Ronald back in school.
        Her name is Miss Grundy and she was an early unicorn, drag queen story time supporter, and general all-around pervert. She gave Little Ron that F in retalation for his polite decline to “do the nasty” with her. Miss Grundy ended up in prison on un-related charges.

  • Michael K

    October 9, 2023 at 10:41 pm

    Nobody likes the new confederacy that Ronda is peddling.

    • Rick Whitaker

      October 10, 2023 at 7:57 am

      white christian maga cultist love it. racism is there go to card.

Comments are closed.


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