A new poll of Florida voters shows a proposed abortion rights initiative could pass in 2024 if it makes the ballot — results show it’s picking up support across gender, racial and party lines.
The University of North Florida poll found that 62% of all respondents would vote “yes” on the proposed amendment while 29% oppose the proposal. Nine percent didn’t answer the question.
Florida requires that constitutional amendments receive approval from 60% of voters in order to pass. The numbers from the poll, which has a margin of error of 4.37%, show that the amendment is hovering around the margin it needs.
“If this amendment does make it on the ballot, initiatives like this one need a supermajority of 60% in order to pass, and it looks like the proposed abortion amendment is right at that threshold among these respondents,” said Michael Binder, UNF Public Opinion Research Lab faculty director and political science professor. “Even among registered Republicans, 53% would vote to protect abortion rights in Florida, with just 39% voting no.”
Organizers pushing the proposed amendment — which would prohibit the Legislature from banning abortion prior to viability, generally around 24 weeks — have until February to collect enough voter signatures to make next year’s ballot. Election officials have certified nearly 500,000 signatures, but it takes close to 900,000 signatures to qualify.
The Florida Supreme Court still has to review the amendment as well.
The breakdown of the poll shows 65% of both Black and White respondents would vote yes on the amendment. The percentage of White respondents opposing the amendment (24%) was slightly lower than the percentage of Black respondents against it (26%).
Fifty-two percent of Hispanic respondents said they would support the amendment while 40% said they would not. Support was weakest among respondents between the ages of 35 and 44, who expressed 57% support.
More than three-quarters of younger voters aged 18 to 24 said they favor the initiative.
Sixty-eight percent of women voters said they supported the initiative, compared to 55% of men.