A.G. Gancarski
On the eve of the Iowa caucuses, a new poll shows Ron DeSantis at 15% and in a distant third place.
The Emerson College survey finds the Florida Governor well off the pace set by first-place Donald Trump, who has 55%.
Meanwhile, Nikki Haley is at 21%.
“We don’t expect any big surprises on Monday, with most voters saying they will not change their minds ahead of tomorrow’s caucus,” Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Trump voters are the most locked in: 83% of Trump voters say they will definitely support him, rather than say there is a chance they could change their mind and vote for someone else, compared to 74% of Haley voters and 75% of DeSantis voters.”
“In the past several months, no candidate has been able to chip away at Trump’s solid base of support in the caucus. While the race for second place has become more competitive among older and college educated voters, Trump maintains at least a plurality of support over Haley and DeSantis among these groups, making it difficult for DeSantis or Haley to secure the base needed to be formidable competitors in Iowa,” Kimball added.
DeSantis does best with voters in their 50s; he has 23% support with that cohort. But that’s not enough to help the Governor much.
“Trump has the support of the Iowa Republican evangelical community and the non-evangelical community,” Kimball said. “His support among evangelicals is three points higher than among non-evangelicals, 56% to 53%, while 18% of evangelicals support Haley, and 16% DeSantis. Among non-evangelical voters, 26% support Haley and 12% DeSantis.”
Other polls suggest a similar outcome awaits on Monday night.
The Des Moines Register poll released Sunday showed the Governor at 16%, four points behind Haley and 32 in back of Trump.
Haley and DeSantis were tied at 17% in an InsiderAdvantage poll released Friday, each with a third of Trump’s support. That was a better survey for the Governor than either of the two that came out on Thursday, both of which showed DeSantis down by 41 points.
If you believe DeSantis, the numbers don’t matter.
“Don’t worry about the pundits. Don’t worry about any of these polls. Nobody knows who’s going to turn out, you can’t possibly poll this in a way that’s accurate. So don’t worry about any of that stuff, just worry about turning out,” DeSantis said Saturday night on the trail.
Time will tell if the Governor is right.
4 comments
The Dude
January 14, 2024 at 6:12 pm
Gancarski doing work for his girlfriend Nikki Fried of the Democratic Party for the State of Florida. I hope the Demos are taking care of you Gancarski.
tom palmer
January 14, 2024 at 6:17 pm
We’ll find out Monday night whether voters value whiny candidates.
The Dude
January 14, 2024 at 6:38 pm
It’s safe to say that Trump is gonna be the nominee. That is a given.
Marvin M.
January 14, 2024 at 8:42 pm
Polls can be wrong, but can so many polls be so wrong? I don’t think so.
I also don’t think the snowstorm is going to make a substantive difference in the Iowa outcome. The overall turnout will be depressed, that’s true.
It’s possible Trump will lose a few older voters. DeSantis might gain a few with what looks like an aggressive last-minute ground game, but overall it’s not going to make one whit of difference.
DeSantis cannot win until he starts taking on Trump. He whines that he has, by saying “Trump didn’t deliver on his promises to build the wall or drain the swamp”. Need more than that Ronnie!
It’s like, Trump hands Ron rocks to sling at him, but Ron chooses to only sling ping pong balls at him.
And then Ron will blame THE MEDIA for why he lost. Hey Ron – Sling the rocks, you damn fool!!
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