Final Iowa poll shows Ron DeSantis 40 points behind Donald Trump

On the eve of the Iowa caucuses, a new poll shows Ron DeSantis at 15% and in a distant third place.

The Emerson College survey finds the Florida Governor  well off the pace set by first-place Donald Trump, who has 55%.

Meanwhile, Nikki Haley is at 21%.

“We don’t expect any big surprises on Monday, with most voters saying they will not change their minds ahead of tomorrow’s caucus,” Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Trump voters are the most locked in: 83% of Trump voters say they will definitely support him, rather than say there is a chance they could change their mind and vote for someone else, compared to 74% of Haley voters and 75% of DeSantis voters.”

“In the past several months, no candidate has been able to chip away at Trump’s solid base of support in the caucus. While the race for second place has become more competitive among older and college educated voters, Trump maintains at least a plurality of support over Haley and DeSantis among these groups, making it difficult for DeSantis or Haley to secure the base needed to be formidable competitors in Iowa,” Kimball added.

DeSantis does best with voters in their 50s; he has 23% support with that cohort. But that’s not enough to help the Governor much.

“Trump has the support of the Iowa Republican evangelical community and the non-evangelical community,” Kimball said. “His support among evangelicals is three points higher than among non-evangelicals, 56% to 53%, while 18% of evangelicals support Haley, and 16% DeSantis. Among non-evangelical voters, 26% support Haley and 12% DeSantis.”

Other polls suggest a similar outcome awaits on Monday night.

The Des Moines Register poll released Sunday showed the Governor at 16%, four points behind Haley and 32 in back of Trump.

Haley and DeSantis were tied at 17% in an InsiderAdvantage poll released Friday, each with a third of Trump’s support. That was a better survey for the Governor than either of the two that came out on Thursday, both of which showed DeSantis down by 41 points.

If you believe DeSantis, the numbers don’t matter.

“Don’t worry about the pundits. Don’t worry about any of these polls. Nobody knows who’s going to turn out, you can’t possibly poll this in a way that’s accurate. So don’t worry about any of that stuff, just worry about turning out,” DeSantis said Saturday night on the trail.

Time will tell if the Governor is right.