Last Call for 1.16.24 — A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics

Last Call — A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics.

First Shot

Gov. Ron DeSantis bet big on Iowa. He lost.

As expected, former President Donald Trump won the first-in-the-nation nominating contest, and he did so with a majority of the vote. Florida’s Governor came in a distant second place, closely followed by former Amb. Nikki Haley. Fourth-place contender Vivek Ramaswamy pulled about 8% of the vote. He’s since called it quits and endorsed the former President.

It didn’t take long for the media to call the race for Trump last night, something that Team DeSantis equated to “election interference.” It was a move somewhat reminiscent of Trump’s election claims — not the ones he made after his November 2020 loss, but following the 2016 Iowa caucuses, when he cried foul after losing to Texas U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz.

The margin in that race was about three points, however. The margin last night was about 30.

While a DeSantis spox did say the media was “in the tank” for Trump on Monday night, the campaign’s morning-after messaging has shifted focus to Haley, calling her third-place finish “disastrous.”

For weeks, the media narrative has been that DeSantis’ campaign was Iowa or bust. But the Governor, who regularly decries media narratives, doesn’t see it that way. Even before Trump’s dominant victory, DeSantis vowed to “compete for every single available delegate in New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina and then into March.”

His claims about New Hampshire and Nevada, in particular, strain credulity.

The Governor is polling at a mere 4% in the Granite State, which holds its primary next Tuesday. For further context, that’s two points back from former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, an avid Trump critic who has already ended his presidential campaign. Nevada, meanwhile, appears to be the Trumpiest of the early primary states — RealClearPolitics’ polling average gives Trump a 50-point lead.

In an apparent embrace of reality, DeSantis has parachuted into South Carolina to shore up support. During a Tuesday stop in Greenville, he trotted out a couple new zingers. The top one: President Joe Biden is “six fries short of a Happy Meal.”

He also amped up his attacks on Haley, a two-term South Carolina Governor, backhandedly comparing her to California’s top Democrat — his debate against Golden State Gov. Gavin Newsom, DeSantis said, was good “practice debating someone as liberal” as Haley.

DeSantis’ campaign is already asserting Haley’s home-court advantage won’t translate into a W next month.

“Without the kill shot she so desperately wanted in Iowa last night, Haley will be out after she fails on Feb. 24 to win her home state of South Carolina, where overflow crowds greeted DeSantis this morning,” DeSantis 2024 said in a news release.

Battle for second place aside, Trump’s path to victory got a boost last night, and it’s already being reflected in the betting markets. U.K. bookmaker BoyleSports now puts him at -1100 (1/11 fractional, 91.66% implied), while Haley has slipped to +650 (13/2 fractional, 13.33% implied) and DeSantis is the longshot at +2800 (28/1 fractional, 3.45% implied).

“We were waiting to see if DeSantis or Haley could make an impact in Iowa, but the betting on the Republican nomination is overwhelmingly against them and it’ll take a huge twist in the tale to topple Trump,” BoyleSports spokesperson Lawrence Lyons said in a news release.

The bookmaker also says Trump is the overall 2024 favorite, placing Biden as the underdog at +175 (7/4 fractional, 36.36% implied) in November.

If you want a reason to take bettors’ whims with a grain of salt, enough people have put their cash behind a potential President Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson for him to earn a spot in the General Election betting lines. We’re not sure we follow the logic there — perhaps Brits think his 1991 natty ring from The U is good for 30 or so electoral votes? 

Bill Day’s Latest

Evening Reads

—”Ron DeSantis’ cold, hard reality” via Elaine Godfrey of The Atlantic

—”DeSantis got the Republican Party wrong” via Zack Beauchamp of Vox

—“5 takeaways from Donald Trump’s runaway victory in the Iowa caucuses” via Lisa Lerer, Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan of The New York Times

—“Cold comfort for Nikki Haley heads in Iowa” via Kara Voght of The Washington Post

—”Iowa romp leaves narrow paths forward” via David Catanese of Too Close To Call

—“Even the battle for second place turned out well for Trump in Iowa” via Nate Cohn of The New York Times

—“Vivek Ramaswamy’s withdrawal could help Trump win New Hampshire” via Nathaniel Rakich of FiveThirtyEight

—”Every awful thing Trump promised to do in a second term” via Ryan Bort of Rolling Stone

—“Joe Biden allies want New Hampshire’s indie votes” via Lisa Kashinsky of POLITICO

—“Federal judge confirms: No FL-Dem Presidential Primary in March” via Mitch Perry of the Florida Phoenix

3 Questions

Access to health care is a top priority for the Florida Legislature this session. Florida Politics spoke with Florida Hospital Association Trustee Michael Mayo, DHA, President and CEO of Baptist Health, while he was in Tallahassee to ask how Baptist Health is working with Florida lawmakers to address some of the top health care needs in Northeast Florida and throughout the state.

FP: Mental and behavioral health care are at the forefront of this session. How is Baptist Health contributing to the behavioral health and well-being of the state and the North Florida community?

Mayo: As the largest and most comprehensive health system in Northeast Florida, Baptist Health is committed to providing accessible, high-quality care that meets the needs of Floridians at every stage of life. Recognizing the current behavioral and mental health crisis, we are actively working to provide solutions within our community and collaborating with our state’s leaders and policymakers to address this critical issue on a broader level. In Jacksonville, we launched an innovative Collaborative Care Model that has dramatically improved access to behavioral and mental health care for our pediatric and adult primary care patients. Since this team-based model was implemented, the wait times for our patients in need of an office-based behavioral health consult were reduced from up to one year to just three days. For more urgent needs, we created a Bridge Program to provide care for patients needing timely intervention and on-the-spot counseling to help avoid a potential crisis. This spring, through the integral support of Gov. DeSantis and the Florida Legislature, our Wolfson Children’s Hospital will significantly expand our inpatient access by opening a new 20-bed pediatric behavioral health unit to help meet this critical need in our state.

FP: Expanding Florida’s health care workforce is a major priority for lawmakers this year. How is Baptist Health working to support this effort?

Mayo: We recognize the importance of building, attracting, and retaining a highly skilled health care workforce in Florida. Thanks to the Florida Legislature’s leadership in addressing our industry’s workforce shortage, Baptist Health has leveraged Linking Industry to Nursing Education (LINE) funds to develop a more robust pipeline for our current and future workforce needs by collaborating with Jacksonville University and the University of North Florida to expand vital nursing education programs. These programs are designed not only to expand the workforce at the entry level but also to accelerate the development of experienced specialists for advanced clinical roles.

We complement these programs with our nurse residency program, providing students with the hands-on training to move from the classroom to the bedside, and our newly certified Baptist Health Clinical School, training candidates currently serving in non-clinical roles to take the first step into a clinical role by completing nursing assistant certification in 15 weeks. By implementing a range of solutions that offer quality education and experience, we are committed to helping re-energize Florida’s highly skilled nursing workforce, ultimately improving the quality of patient care in Florida for the long term.

FP: What are some of the innovative ways Baptist Health is working to elevate health care in North Florida?

Mayo: One of our core values is achieving the highest quality of care and service in all we do through continuous improvement and innovation.

One example is Baptist MD Anderson Cancer Center’s proactive, tailored approach to cancer care among our most valiant, but most vulnerable, firefighters — who put their lives on the line for our community every day. Armed with the clinical breakthroughs of the number one cancer center in the nation and the full resources of North Florida’s largest health system, our team of Baptist MD Anderson experts support a dedicated program that focuses on partnering with firefighters to ensure they receive the health screenings, health education, and care navigation they need. In the event cancer is detected, these first responders receive expedited, state-of-the-art care, complete with individualized treatment plans and additional services such as physical therapy, genetic testing, occupational therapy, speech therapy, and spiritual care. We feel that it’s our duty to take these measures to protect the heroes of our communities, and our way of saying thank you to those who support the well-being and safety of our friends, family, and neighbors.

Quote of the Day

“A graduate of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology — so, the second best university in Cambridge — Mr. Roy, you are recognized to give your presentation.”

— Harvard graduate and House Health and Human Services Committee Chair Randy Fine, introducing Avik Roy of the Foundation for Research on Equal Opportunity.

Put It on the Tab

Look to your left, then look to your right. If you see one of these people at your happy hour haunt, flag down the bartender and put one of these on your tab. Recipes included, just in case the Cocktail Codex fell into the well.

Gov. DeSantis got knocked down in Iowa, but he got up and flew to South Carolina. Sorry for the Gen X earworm, but the Mountain Dew and Gatorade-infused Tubthumper seems like the appropriate order.

The Governor claims Americans are too out of shape for a military draft and he may be right. Either way, a shot of Dough Ball sounds more appealing than a half-hour on the Peloton.

Rep. Ralph Massullo is pushing a bill that would cap the THC content in recreational pot if Florida votes to legalize it. There’s a word for this … maybe a Kneecap will jog our memory.

North — and some Central — Floridians can make their own daiquiris, no bartender needed! Just purée some Florida-grown strawberries, mix in some rum and lime, then set it outside while the polar front blasts through the state.

Breakthrough Insights

Tune In

Gators, Vols adjusting to winter weather

Winter weather forced Florida’s basketball game at Tennessee to be moved up to a 5 p.m. tip this evening. No broadcast information was available at press time. The game was originally scheduled to be broadcast on ESPN 2.

The Gators (11-5; 1-2 in SEC) bounced back from back-to-back losses to start SEC play to defeat Arkansas 90-68 in Gainesville on Saturday. Riley Kugel led the way with 20 points for Florida. That performance came after Kugel was scoreless in just four minutes of play in a loss to Ole Miss.

Kugel could be the key to Florida’s success the rest of the season. He has been an enigma this season, scoring 20 points or more four times while turning in six games scoring in single digits.

The opportunity for Florida to beat a ranked team is significant for the Gators. Tennessee (12-4; 2-1) is ranked sixth in the most recent Associated Press poll and if Kugel and his teammates can pull the upset, the Gators’ path this season could look much different.

After facing Tennessee, the Gators are not scheduled to face another ranked team until facing Kentucky on Jan. 31. It won’t be easy. Tennessee has not lost a game in Knoxville this season.

ALSO TONIGHT

7:30 p.m. — South Florida Bulls @ UTSA Roadrunners

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Last Call is published by Peter Schorsch, assembled and edited by Phil Ammann and Drew Wilson, with contributions from the staff of Florida Politics.