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Last Call — A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics.
First Shot
Ahead of the first presidential debate, betting odds from SportsHandle are currently favoring former President Donald Trump to win the election.
Every Thursday, SportsHandle’s election odds tracker updates its odds on who will likely be elected President, gathering and automating data from various betting providers. As of June 27, the tracker shows that Trump has a 59% odds of winning the election. President Joe Biden is lagging at 38%.
Trump has held the lead against Biden for two consecutive weeks, with Biden’s odds increasing three percentage points since last week and Trump’s decreasing by one. This also comes after The New York Times and NPR/PBS News/Marist National polls most recently showed both candidates polling evenly.
SportsHandle also tracks the betting odds for who Trump will select as his vice presidential candidate. The current favorite remains North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum at 34% odds, followed by Ohio Sen. JD Vance.
However, the biggest recent event has been Vivek Ramaswamy’s odds increasing by two percentage points from last week. Now he holds a nearly 10% odds to become Trump’s running mate, overtaking U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio and former U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Ben Carson for third place, who have both been cited as likely candidates alongside Vance and Burgum. No other candidate is in the double digits for betting odds.
Several instances have shown shifts in how the candidates have polled among voters, most recently Trump’s hush-money trial. However, it’s likely the debate will show where voters stand on the candidates more significantly, marking the first time the two have faced off since October 2020.
The debate, which will air on CNN, begins at 9 p.m. EST.
Evening Reads
—“Here’s what could actually move the 2024 needle during tonight’s debate” via Lisa Kashinsky and Myah Ward of POLITICO
—”What Joe Biden, Donald Trump need to do to win Thursday’s presidential debate” via Amber Phillips of The Washington Post
—”What media outlets on the right and left are saying about the debate” via Santul Nerkar of The New York Times
—”Biden-Trump debate takes shape as clash with ‘no love lost’” via Ken Thomas and Alex Leary of The Wall Street Journal
—”Earpieces and Mountain Dew: Republicans are desperate to discredit Biden before the debate” via Nikki McCann Ramirez of Rolling Stone
—“How the Biden-Trump debate could change the trajectory of the 2024 campaign” via Zeke Miller, Michelle L. Price, Will Weissert, Bill Barrow and Darlene Superville of The Associated Press
—”I’ve debated Trump and Biden. Here’s what I’m watching for.” via Hillary Rodham Clinton for The New York Times
—”Four reasons why the Biden-Trump debate could actually matter” via Eric Levitz of Vox
—“The presidential debate that could make or break CNN” via Jeremy Barr of The Washington Post
—”The real story of the crisis at The Washington Post” via Brian Stelter of The Atlantic
Quote of the Day
“This is not a question about whether they’re guilty or innocent … But once that’s been decided, the appropriate punishment is something that one of the 12 jurors shouldn’t be able to kneecap.”
— Gov. Ron DeSantis, following a 9-3 jury decision to execute a man convicted of gunning down five women half a decade ago at a Sebring bank.
Put It on the Tab
Look to your left, then look to your right. If you see one of these people at your happy hour haunt, flag down the bartender and put one of these on your tab. Recipes included, just in case the Cocktail Codex fell into the well.
U.S. Sen. Rick Scott will take two fingers of Old Forester 1920 Whisky (and yes, no “e” despite its Kentucky roots, we triple-checked). It may not be the fanciest bottle, but its proofage is a perfect fit to celebrate endorsements from 115 County Commissioners.
Trial lawyers haven’t had much to celebrate in recent years, but Gov. Ron DeSantis gave them a reason to raise a glass by vetoing legislation to curtail cybersecurity breach lawsuits. Might we suggest a Cyber Sunrise for the techy JD down the bar?
UF President Ben Sasse gets his pick of Swamp Head (or First Mag) draught for giving Gator faculty and students an extra day off for the 4th of July Weekend.
Breakthrough Insights
Tune In
U.S. continues Copa América play
The U.S. Men’s National Team continues to play in the group stage of Copa América tonight against Panama (6 p.m. ET, Fox).
The USMNT opened the tournament with a 2-0 win over Bolivia. The U.S. dominated the game and had several good chances to score additional goals but failed in the final third.
Team captain Christian Pulisic scored the opening goal for the U.S. just three minutes into the match. Pulisic has scored five goals in his last seven matches while representing his country.
The other goal scorer against Bolivia was Folarin Balogun, his third goal in seven caps for the US.
Tonight’s game against Panama is a step up in competition. Bolivia was the lowest-ranked South American team in the tournament (No. 84 in the FIFA World Rankings), while Panama came in 43rd. However, among North and Central American countries, Bolivia ranked behind only the U.S. (No. 11) and Mexico (No. 15).
Panama opened group stage play with a 3-1 loss to Uruguay, which the U.S. team will play on Monday to conclude group stage play.
If the USMNT wins tonight, they will lock in a spot in the knockout round and look forward to facing a team from Group D, likely Brazil or Colombia, in the round of 16.
This is the biggest tournament the U.S. will play between now and the World Cup, which will come to the U.S., Canada, and Mexico in 2026.
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Last Call is published by Peter Schorsch, assembled and edited by Phil Ammann and Drew Wilson, with contributions from the staff of Florida Politics.
