Here’s how Donald Trump could use recreational pot to his electoral advantage

Former President Donald Trump rejects calls for "New American Revolution."

This November, Florida voters will decide whether to legalize cannabis for recreational use among adults age 21 or older, and former President Donald Trump could use the ballot initiative in his home state to drum up support not just in Florida where it’s on the ballot, but throughout the U.S. where the issue remains a top issue for some voters. 

All he has to do is endorse it.

A poll conducted June 26-29 obtained by Florida Politics found an overwhelming majority of Florida voters support Amendment 3, which would legalize recreational cannabis for those 21 and older. At more than 64% support, the poll predicts the amendment could easily reach the 60% +1 threshold for passage.

And while the same poll showed Trump might not even need help winning Florida — he leads incumbent President Joe Biden with nearly 50% support compared to Biden’s 40% — it sheds light on key demographics that could translate into electoral boosts for Trump in other states that are polling more competitively. 

A look at the demographic breakdowns within the poll, conducted among 1,065 likely Florida voters with a margin of error of 2.9%, shows Trump struggling among young voters between the ages of 18 and 29. And while the poll does not break out demographics on race, historical data and analyses suggest Trump’s support for recreational cannabis legalization could help improve his performance among Black voters, a group with whom the former President has struggled. 

Let’s start with young voters in this poll. While Trump commanded 49.9% support overall, his support among voters 18-29 fell at just 17%. Those ages 30-39 like Trump a little more, but he still struggles there with just over 39% support — both far less than Biden, who has already expressed support for reclassifying cannabis from its current place among illicit drugs such as LSD and heroin to a classification alongside drugs such as steroids and Tylenol with codeine. Biden has also pardoned many of those convicted of federal and D.C. simple possession offenses. 

Trump is already working to cut into Biden’s lead among young voters, and several polls have showed him making headway. Florida’s pot initiative could further that momentum. The poll showed not just that young voters favor legalizing recreational cannabis, but that ALL of them do. A staggering 100% of voters age 18-29 in the poll support Amendment 3. If you’ve read many polls, you’ll know that seeing 100% is something that happens just about never. Adding to Trump’s opportunity here, 82% of voters age 30-39 support the amendment. 

If President Biden remains the Democratic Party’s nominee, Trump’s support for legalizing recreational pot, paired with his strategically sound vow to make tips tax free, could have monumental implications among the nation’s youngest voters, and likely some of their slightly older counterparts in the 30-39 demographic. 

But as strong as that case is, there may be an even stronger strategic advantage for Trump to come out publicly in support of recreational cannabis as it relates to Black voters. 

Polls gauging voter sentiment on Amendment 3 have typically focused on age, gender and political affiliation, but there has been research into how Black voters feel about legalization. A Pew Research Center survey in late 2021 found wide majorities of Black voters support legalizing cannabis, at 57%, while 74% support criminal justice reforms that lead to releasing those convicted of pot-related crimes and/or expunging their records. 

This is not to say that Black Americans are a bunch of pot heads. Far from it. An ACLU report from 2013 found that pot-use among Black and White Americans was roughly equal, yet Black users were nearly four times more likely to be arrested for it. 

Similarly, the anti-war on drug organization NORML compiled several studies looking at racial disparities in the cannabis world, including a 2022 Washington Post analysis finding that Black adults comprised nearly 60% of all marijuana-related cases in district and circuit courts. Another 2022 analysis in Texas found Black individuals made up more than 30% of all possession arrests, but account for just 13% of the state’s population. 

Staggeringly, a 2021 analysis in New York found that people of color made up 94% of all marijuana-related arrests in New York City in 2020. 

There are numerous studies echoing those findings across the nation, indicating that this is a nationwide issue on which Black voters have a vested interest. Even if some Black voters aren’t cannabis users themselves, there’s a high probability they know someone who has been caught up in the criminal justice system because of it.

This represents an opportunity for Trump perhaps larger than any other. He’s made headway among demographics for whom he has traditionally struggled to court, such as suburban women and the highly educated. But there is a ceiling of support among those demographics, a ceiling that does not exist to the same extent among either Black or young voters, both of whom are less likely to tie themselves to party loyalty. 

Trump’s support for an issue for which both demographics are clearly passionate could go a long way in courting voters who otherwise might not give Trump a second look. 

The timing is also opportune. As Biden world continues its tailspin following the President’s devastating debate performance last week, Trump could, figuratively of course, securely hammer the nail into Biden’s coffin with something as simple as an endorsement. 

Make no mistake, that endorsement would have ripple effects far beyond the Sunshine State. National headlines would surely follow, because it would serve as an indication of how Trump might act on federal cannabis legislation if he were to win another term in the White House. 

Also keep in mind that Trump has been using his own criminal woes as a plea to Black voters. While Democrats are quick to paint Trump’s remarks as racist — their argument is that he’s insinuating Black people are lawless — he has a point. With Black Americans more likely to be arrested and charged with marijuana-related offenses, surely there may be some value in his argument. Supporting adult-use legalization eliminates just one of the Black community’s criminal justice plights.

This isn’t the first poll showing Amendment 3 with a strong path to passage. With his endorsement, Trump could again find himself on the winning team, and he could reasonably make the argument that he’s the reason for victory.