Going against state’s top economist, panel reaches decision on abortion rights initiative

Under pressure from Gov. Ron DeSantis and the House, a state panel of economists agreed on ballot language warning that an abortion rights initiative could cause high litigation costs and more, leading even the state’s top economist to voice concerns that the group was overstepping.

The majority of the Financial Impact Estimating Conference (FIEC), with a 3-1 vote, argued that the disclaimer — which will appear next to Amendment 4 on the November ballot — was important to inform voters about the potential for pending lawsuits and lower state and local tax revenue.

In a marathon meeting, the FIEC debated for the third straight Monday with the state’s economic chief Amy Baker often clashing with Chris Spencer, who represented DeSantis’ Office. Azhar Khan, who appeared to be the swing vote Monday in representing the Senate, and Rachel Greszler, who works for an arm of the Heritage Foundation and represented the House, all joined forces with Spencer against Baker.

Baker said the finalized ballot statement would be available Tuesday morning. The statement will be sent to the Secretary of State’s Office, which will distribute it to the local Supervisors of Elections to put on the ballot alongside Amendment 4.

The FIEC meeting, which is normally mundane, got tense at times and drew a crowd, underscoring the political divisiveness of the abortion issue. Panel members took breaks to clear their heads as the meeting hit 12 hours and kept going.

“You can’t just whole hog make this up,” Baker said at one point to Spencer.

Early polls indicated that Amendment 4 is in for a tight campaign to get to the necessary 60% of the vote needed to amend Florida’s Constitution. Both reproductive right advocates and opponents are fighting to gain any political leverage they can.

The FIEC met to determine Amendment 4’s impact on the state budget. What dragged out much of FIEC’s debate was how to address the potential cost of litigation if Amendment 4 passes and whether abortions would ultimately be a Medicaid covered procedure.

“Chris, we’re not making a political statement here. We’re not trying to frighten people (that) there will be litigation costs,” said Baker, coordinator for the Office of Economic and Demographic Research.

Spencer argued that the FIEC needed to alert voters that lengthy — and expensive — lawsuits will arise if Amendment 4 passes.

“Everyone agrees litigation is coming, right? It’s like ‘Game of Thrones.’ Winter is coming,” said Spencer, DeSantis’ former budget director who is now working at the State Board of Administration. “Litigation is going to occur as a result of this.”

Baker challenged him by saying, “Adjectives are not good in estimating financial impact statements.”

She argued it was improper to speculate what lawsuits would be coming and who would win.

Baker warned the panel’s ultimate decision could be far-reaching beyond November’s election.

“There’s going to be other FIECs in the future. If the Supreme Court were to rule on this and say that we speculated on the cost of litigation, and that was inappropriate because we overreached here, then that’s going to color what we’re able to do in all future FIECs,” Baker said.

Amendment 4 attorney Michelle Morton accused the FIEC of becoming politically charged over abortion.

“I understand that this issue creates passionate debate. It’s also clear that the government opposes this amendment, which is predictable,” the ACLU of Florida staff attorney told the estimating conference panel Monday morning.

“You’re informing voters of the probable direct budgetary impact of the amendment so they can consider the financial impact of their vote. That’s it. Yet all these impacts you’re discussing outside of the direct cost savings are rooted in opposition talking points.”

Morton said the group is reviewing its options when Florida Politics reached for comment about FIEC’s decision.

Spencer defended their work, arguing the panel has never dealt with an issue like this before exploring the state’s costs and revenues framed with “actual individual life.”

And Sara Johnson, who is part of the state opposition group, argued, “This amendment was written to require litigation and to be vague and sweeping.”

Amendment 4 seeks to overturn the state’s current six-week abortion ban to allow abortion until viability, when the unborn child can survive outside the mother’s body.

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Christine Jordan Sexton of Florida Politics contributed to this report.