Staff Reports
Last Call – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics.
First Shot
Donald Trump is starting to break away from President Joe Biden in the midweek update to Morning Consult’s tracking poll.
The latest data, measured July 15-17, shows the former Republican President leading the incumbent Democrat 46%-42%. An additional 8% said they planned to vote for a third-party candidate, while 5% told the pollster they were undecided.
Morning Consult’s tracking poll has kept a slim margin for most of the election cycle. The gap hovered around 2% through the tumult, including Trump’s convictions, Biden’s much-maligned debate performance, and even the first post-assassination attempt update.
As recently as Monday, Morning Consult pegged the race at 44%-42%, and Trump’s edge narrowed to one point among a smaller subset polled exclusively after a gunman shot him in the ear at a Pennsylvania campaign rally.
The pollster does attribute Trump’s growing advantage to the attempt, adding that it’s the former President’s largest lead since February and one point shy of the record 5% edge he held in January.
Meanwhile, Biden continues to flounder in both popularity and “net buzz,” Morning Consult’s term is for the share of voters who heard something positive about him minus the share who heard something negative.
There are also signs that the President’s sagging numbers are dampening down-ballot candidates. While middling nominees have historically hampered their party’s congressional and senatorial nominees, polling this cycle has veered in the other direction. Some polls even made some pundits posit that popular battleground-state Senate candidates could carry a limping Biden across the finish line.
The net impact, per Morning Consult, is that last week, congressional Democrats had a worse net buzz rating than their Republican counterparts – a first for the 2024 cycle.
Evening Reads
–“2024 at a crossroads” via Shane Goldmacher and Lisa Lerer of The New York Times
–“Barack Obama, Nancy Pelosi and Democrats make a fresh push for Joe Biden to reconsider 2024 race ahead of convention” via Lisa Mascaro, Zeke Miller, Michael Balsamo and Aamer Madhani of The Associated Press
–“Biden should resign if he can’t run for President, Marco Rubio says” via Louis Jacobson of PolitiFact
–“Despite platform change, Republicans remain divided on same-sex marriage” via Maegan Vasquez of The Washington Post
–“GOP convention: Unity call belies strict adherence to MAGA principles” via Antonio Fins of the Tallahassee Democrat
–“How Trump won back complete control of the GOP” via Alex Leary and John McCormick
–“Ron DeSantis tells cheering Iowa Republicans: ‘I hope and pray’ Biden is Dem nominee” via Jennifer Shutt and Jay Waagmeester of the Florida Phoenix
–“Pelosi told Biden: You’re dragging down Democrats” via Rachel Bade of POLITICO Magazine
–“Will the RNC give Trump a polling bounce?” via Geoffrey Skelley of FiveThirtyEight
–“2024 Primary voter guide: Over 100 local candidates on the issues” via the Tampa Bay Times
—“‘Not from your own blood’: South Florida cousins fighting for election – for the same seat” via Lisa J. Huriash of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel
Quote of the Day
“If Democrats believe Biden doesn’t have the mental acuity to be their candidate, how can they allow him to continue to be our President?”
– U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, on calls for Joe Biden to relinquish the Democratic nomination.
Put It on the Tab
Look to your left, then look to your right. If you see one of these people at your happy hour haunt, flag down the bartender and put one of these on your tab. Recipes included, just in case the Cocktail Codex fell into the well.
Rubio is turning it up a notch, arguing that if Biden steps aside, he should step down. If you ask us, that sounds a little Overboard.
Nikki Fried thinks she can deliver Florida to Biden. She gets points for optimism, but polling indicates she’s fighting a losing battle. Since a Pyrrhus implies victory, we’ll pretend this Hannibal concoction is named after the defeated general, not the character played by Anthony Hopkins.
Mix up a few Sewer Waters for members of the Alachua County Commission – they’ll need something to sip on while they read up on Sunshine Organics and Compost’s shady practices.
Breakthrough Insights
Tune In
British Open concludes Sunday
The final round of the golf season’s final major is scheduled for Sunday as the British Open concludes at Royal Troon (7 a.m. ET, NBC).
Many of the world’s top players are trying to earn the Championship Golfer of the Year title.
The favorite is Scottie Scheffler, the world’s #1 ranked player, who has enjoyed a record-breaking season. He won The Players Championship in March and the Masters in April, among six wins. He can post a historic campaign if he wins The Open Championship. The last player to win multiple majors in a season was Brooks Koepka in 2018. Scheffler will try to match the feat. This is Scheffler’s fourth Open Championship. He has never finished in the top five.
2014 Open Championship winner Rory McIlroy has played well in the event historically, finishing in the top six in six of the last eight British Opens. McIlroy has not won a major championship since 2014.
Others to watch include Ludvig Aberg, 24, who was in contention at the Scottish Open before a final-round 73 dropped him into a tie for fourth. Coming off his first major at the 2024 PGA Championship, Xander Schauffele has six top-5 finishes this season and just missed winning The British Open in 2018.
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Last Call is published by Peter Schorsch, assembled and edited by Phil Ammann and Drew Wilson, with contributions from the staff of Florida Politics.
