Staff Reports
Last Call – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics.
First Shot
Vice President Kamala Harris has pulled out into her biggest lead yet in a new poll from Leger.
Conducted July 26-28, the survey found Harris leading 49%-46% in a head-to-head race with Republican nominee and former President Donald Trump.
When third-party candidates are included, her lead more than doubles – she’d take 48% of the vote to Trump’s 41%, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 5%, Cornel West and Jill Stein each at 1% and 3% of voters undecided.
Leger assessed how locked-in voters were by asking if it was possible they would vote for a candidate or if it was a “total no-go.” More than half of those polled (52%) said there was no way they would vote for Trump; 45% said Harris was a “no-go.”
The polling sample – 1,002 Americans – did veer slightly left, with 32% saying they identified as Democrats compared to 27% who identified as Republicans. An additional 33% said they were “independent” while 8% were unsure or refused to answer.
Harris is faring better in favorability, although that may be a function of lower familiarity – she’s 42%-40% in the positive with 14% saying they don’t know enough about her to hold an opinion. Trump, meanwhile, is underwater 42%-48% with just 4% saying they don’t know enough to answer.
Trump’s running mate, JD Vance, is once again the least popular name set to appear at the top of the ticket in November. Only 23% of voters have a positive impression of the Ohio U.S. Senator compared to 36% who view him unfavorably. Worse yet, voters over 55 – a strong Republican bloc – are his biggest haters, with 42% saying they dislike him.
Harris has yet to announce her running mate, but Leger floated a handful of names. Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro was the most popular pick (18%) among self-identified Democrats, followed by Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg (11%) and Arizona U.S. Sen. Mark Kelly (10%).
Evening Reads
–“Donald Trump allies want to hit Kamala Harris’ record. He keeps talking about her race and gender.” via Marianne LeVine and Josh Dawsey of The Washington Post
–“Kamala is cooking. When will she be burnt?” via David Catanese of Too Close to Call
–“What Trump doesn’t understand about race in America” via Teresa Wiltz of POLITICO Magazine
–“Harris calls Trump’s false claims about race ‘the same old show’ of divisiveness and disrespect” via Chris Megerian of The Associated Press
–“Josh Shapiro, potential Harris V.P. pick, cancels weekend fundraisers” via Theodore Schleiffer and Christina Morales of The New York Times
–“Harris has made up ground in Nevada. But the road ahead is steep.” Via Jennifer Medina of The New York Times
–“Abortion-rights ballot measures may not help Democrats as much as they think” via Nathaniel Rakich of FiveThirtyEight
–“Inside the secret negotiations to free Evan Gershkovich” via Joe Parkinson, Drew Hinshaw, Bojan Pancevski and Aruna Viswanatha of The Wall Street Journal
–“U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Chair sees tensions rising after death of Hamas leader” via Ashley Murray of the Florida Phoenix
–“Can we talk? Floridians drop telephone landlines, while cell numbers climb ” via the South Florida Sun-Sentinel
–“Massive tropical wave to approach Florida, could form into depression, hurricane center says” via Richard Tirbou of the Orlando Sentinel
Quote of the Day
“We are going to move heaven and earth to make sure this state remains a law-and-order state.”
– Gov. Ron DeSantis, announcing a new milestone in police recruitment bonus payouts.
Put it on the Tab
Look to your left, then look to your right. If you see one of these people at your happy hour haunt, flag down the bartender and put one of these on your tab. Recipes included, just in case the Cocktail Codex fell into the well.
The state’s police recruitment program has dished out more than 5,400 checks since its establishment – what pairs well with a $5,000 payday? How about a B.O.N.U.S.?
Pour a Welcome Home for Evan Gershkovich and Paul Whelan, who are heading back to the States after the U.S. and Russia completed the biggest prisoner swap in post-Soviet history.
Order an Executive for Cheryl A. Taylor, who is rising to the CEO job at CareerSource Northeast Florida.
Breakthrough Insights
Tune In
World’s fastest man to be crowned Sunday
One of the featured events of the Olympic Games is scheduled for Sunday afternoon as the men’s 100-meter final is scheduled to go off at 3:50 p.m. ET (NBC).
Among the favorites is Gainesville’s Noah Lyles, the top-ranked sprinter in the world. The six-time world champion won a bronze medal in the 200 meters in Tokyo in 2021 and now wants to add the 100-meter gold and the title of “World’s Fastest Man” to his resume.
Lyles is in good form, setting a personal best time of 9.81 seconds at the 100 meters in the London Athletics Meet on July 20, the final tuneup for the Olympics. The time was two-hundredths of a second faster than his winning time at the 2023 World Championships.
Lyles’ top competition will likely come from teammates Kenny Bednarak and 2022 World Champion Fred Kerley. Two other contenders have run the 100 meters faster than Lyles this season, Jamaica’s Kishane Thompson (9.77) and Kenya’s Ferdinand Omanyala (9.79).
Lyles is trying to match Jesse Owens and Carl Lewis by winning four track and field gold medals. In addition to the 100 meters, he is also scheduled to compete in the 200 meters and the 4×100 and 4×400 relays.
___
Last Call is published by Peter Schorsch, assembled and edited by Phil Ammann and Drew Wilson, with contributions from the staff of Florida Politics.
