Kamala Harris closes in on Donald Trump in latest Florida poll

Trump, Harris. Image via AP.

The presidential race may be more competitive in the Sunshine State than previously expected, despite Republicans outnumbering Democrats by a million voters.

That’s the takeaway from the latest USA Today/Suffolk University/WSVN-TV phone poll of 500 likely voters conducted between Aug. 7 and Aug. 11.

While Donald Trump still leads with 47% support, Vice President Kamala Harris’ 42% puts her within striking distance, particularly given that 5% of voters are undecided and another 5% back Robert Kennedy Jr., who continues to decline in polls across the country.

The poll performance is remarkable given the professed party split of respondents, as 42% think of themselves as Republicans, 34% are Democrats and 21% are independent.

Trump leads in every region of the state but South Florida, where Harris is up 51% to 39%.

Meanwhile, the polling suggests anomalies among age cohorts. Trump leads by 4 points with voters under 35 years of age, while Harris is up by 2 with senior citizens.

While age groups may be doing unorthodox things in this data, racial splits are what one might expect. Harris takes 70% of Black voters, with Trump carrying 55% of White respondents. He also leads with Hispanics, 50% to 39%.

Trump is up 57% to 33% with men, while Harris leads with women, 50% to 38%.

Harris also dominates with independent voters, 41% to 34%.

Voters nonetheless are locked in, with 89% of both Trump and Harris supporters saying they are excited to vote for their choice.

Trump’s polling operation expected trends to go Harris’ way in the short term.

Pollster Tony Fabrizio said last month that the so-called “Harris honeymoon” will be a “manifestation of the wall-to-wall coverage Harris receives from the (mainstream media).”

“The coverage will be largely positive and will certainly energize Democrats and some other parts of their coalition at least in the short term,” Fabrizio suggested at the time.

Other polling of the Trump-Harris race has shown signs of life for the Democratic nominee also.

Trump was up 7 points over Kamala Harris in a statewide University of North Florida survey in a two-way race polled late last month.

Meanwhile, a MDW Communications poll of Miami-Dade voters suggests that Harris, unlike some other recent Democratic candidates, may have a message that resonates in South Florida, which is key to any upset hopes for her party. Harris leads by 15 points there overall, with a 23-point lead among voters without party affiliation.