A.G. Gancarski
Don’t believe the hype on a DNC bounce, say senior officials in the Donald Trump campaign.
National polls that show Kamala Harris surging will come back down to earth, claim Tony Fabrizio and Travis Tunis.
They expect “another small (albeit temporary) bounce for Harris in the public polls” this weekend and in the coming days, but they believe that the “two to three-point bump” is “temporary.”
“Post-convention bounces are a phenomenon that happens after most party conventions. In 2016, President Trump and Hillary Clinton both got an average 2-point bump after their conventions. Back in 1992, Bill Clinton got an 8-point bounce, while that same year, George H.W. Bush got a 5-point bounce. While they vary, the usual range is somewhere between 1 and 4 points.”
More historical examples are used to support the claim of polling variance.
“But when you see this bounce, remember that in 1988, Gallup had Michael Dukakis up 17 on then-Vice President Bush in the immediate aftermath of the DNC. Most polls had John McCain up 2 to 4 points on Barack Obama in 2008, the week after the RNC. In 2016, Hillary Clinton was up 7 points on President Trump after her convention in the RCP average. We all know how those ended up. These bumps do not last.”
The polling average nationally shows Harris up 49% to 46%, with national polls showing a bigger lead. Meanwhile, surveys that reflect the DNC should surface Sunday morning.
13 comments
Michael S
August 24, 2024 at 2:55 pm
Don’t believe the hype, claims senior officials in the Donald Trump campaign.
National polls that show Kamala Harris surging will come back down to earth, claim Tony Fabrizio and Travis Tunis.
They expect “another small (albeit temporary) bounce for Harris in the public polls” that come out this weekend and in the coming days, but believe that “two to three point bump” is “temporary.”
These 3 paragraphs are non-sequitor. First of all, there is no ‘hype’ out there….the post-convention bounce does not exist yet, so how can anyone tethered to reality be ‘hyping’ such? And if it is ‘two points’, who considers that a ‘surge’? Compared to the 10 point turnaround that has already happened, how is a 2 point movement at all remarkable? That’s largely been a weekly event. Just look at any of the aggregator averages the past few weeks. Yes, everyone 13 and over knows what a post-convention bounce is….but I guess they do need to explain it again to their boss lest he has yet again another meltdown, public or private.
Day 34
August 24, 2024 at 3:15 pm
The key to Kammy’s success is to keep her away from any sit downs or interviews. She just doesn’t do well under those scenarios. When she starts giggling and laughing you know she has brain lock.
Yrral
August 24, 2024 at 3:29 pm
You want defend your mama honor,but you will defend Trump
Day 34
August 24, 2024 at 3:32 pm
I need a translator for you and your other friend that speaks the same language.
Michael K
August 24, 2024 at 3:30 pm
DonOLD did not get a bounce at all from his coronation. He is going insane over the fact that Kamala Harris is getting bigger crowds, greater enthusiasm, more attention, and is better liked than he is. And of course, as a lifelong racist, there is one other element that is driving Trump to increasing madness.
It’s hard for women, especially, to get excited about the oldest candidate in US history who is a thrice-married sexual a user who cheats on his wives and grabs women by their private parts. He has a serious woman problem. And men who respect women are turning on him.
Day 34
August 24, 2024 at 3:33 pm
Yet you supported senile Joe Biden. He was fine. Have you forgotten the coverup? Then there is Nancy Pelosi. Not only is she senile at 84, she is bat shit crazy.
Ocean Joe
August 24, 2024 at 3:42 pm
84, 82, and 78 seems a bit over ripe to be president, luckily when Biden needed a lucid interval most he didnt get one and the debate revealed what was obvious, especially the slack jaw. In private Im sure he’s very sharp, just like they always said about Reagan (76) when he wasnt napping.
Harris is a youthful pup at 59, so I will join you in your ageism.
VOTE 2024
August 24, 2024 at 4:57 pm
Gus Walz is on his “Game”
Way to go buddy, you are my Hero.
Phil Morton
August 24, 2024 at 5:51 pm
They can spin it any way they want but Harris has been leading Trump for the past month. We are not going back!
Michael K
August 24, 2024 at 6:03 pm
Harris and the DNC got more TV viewers than Hair Furor and the RNC. The other thing is that Harris is speaking directly to voters, but not through the media. Democrats don’t have a Fox “news” propaganda machine. This is driving Republicans crazy. The influencers are especially effective at reaching (mostly) younger people who don’t watch TV.
Nelson Hammer
August 24, 2024 at 7:59 pm
Yeah, Dukakis and Hilary were ahead and they lost. But then they weren’t running against a psychopathic, megalomaniacal, naricissistic, misogynistic, racist, sexual abusing, anti-Semitic, anti-Muslim, xenophobic, convicted felon, were they?
Ocean Joe
August 25, 2024 at 4:55 am
She still has an uphill fight. Remember, America is packed full of psychopathic, megalomaniacal, narcissistic, misogynistic, racist, sexual abusing, anti-Semitic, anti-Muslim, xenophobic voters. That’s why Trump always talks about ‘the great Hannibal Lecter’ at his rallies.
But let’s hope she doesn’t get in a tank.
Trump’s campaign is looking for Willie Horton’s grandson right now.
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Kamala is Brat 🥥🌴🥥
August 25, 2024 at 6:06 am
Trump is morally and ethically bankrupt! He’s lost the entertainment value to the point that he’s boring.
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