Jacob Ogles
Days after Whitney Fox won her Democratic Primary, a poll conducted for Florida Politics shows her leading U.S. Rep. Anna Paulina Luna.
St. Pete Polls found almost 48% of likely voters plan to support Fox, while just over 44% intend to vote for Luna. That puts the incumbent well short of the 50% threshold needed to ensure election to a second term.
The pollster surveyed participants on Aug. 27, a week after Fox won a five-candidate Democratic Primary in Florida’s 13th Congressional District.
The same poll found Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris leading Republican nominee Donald Trump 51% to 46% within the Pinellas County district, and found Democratic Senate candidate Debbie Mucarsel-Powell leading incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. Rick Scott, 49% to 46%.
The poll includes responses from 843 voters, with pollsters reporting a 3.4-percentage-point margin of error.
Pinellas County has traditionally been a swing county that shifted more red, along with the state, in the last election cycle. In 2022, Luna won her seat over Eric Lynn with more than 53% of the vote, with the Democrat under 45%. The same election, more than 56% of voters in the district supported Republican U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio’s re-election and more than 58% backed Gov. Ron DeSantis for a second term.
About 53% of voters in the district supported Trump for President in 2020 against Democrat Joe Biden in 2020. But the latest poll suggests Pinellas voters may swing back to the left in a big way.
As of the book closing on voter rolls before Florida’s Aug. 20 Primary, Republicans maintained a substantial voter registration edge in the district. More than 205,000 registered Republicans live in the district, compared to almost 151,000 Democrats and 136,000 no-party voters.
The poll found Luna remains popular among Republican voters there, with more than 78% backing the Republican incumbent and just 16% ready to cross lines and vote for Fox.
But the incumbent performs poorly with all other voters. Among Democrats, Fox has the support of nearly 86%, while just 6% want Luna re-elected. Among independents about 51% plan to vote for Fox while less than 39% favor Luna.
With two women serving as the face of their parties, Fox holds a slight edge with female voters, at 47% to 44%.
Pollsters only found the 70-and-up age demographic supporting Luna. About 54% like the incumbent, while 37% prefer Fox. But Fox leads with the 50-69 set, with 49% to Luna’s 45%. Fox is up with 30- to 49-year-olds, 53% to 39%, and with voters under 30, 68% to 22%.
Federal Election Commission reports do show Luna enjoying the financial edge of incumbency. As of July 31, she had more than $917,000 in cash on hand for the race, while Fox had $119,000. And that was before Fox had to market herself in a Democratic Primary, while Luna won her nomination without opposition.
But Luna is one of just two Florida incumbents targeted by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which has signaled it intends to spend generously on the race. Fox was also one of just two Democratic congressional Primary winners spotlighted in a Florida Democratic Party press call this week.
StPetePolls 2024 CD-13-GEN August27 Q7JXA2 by Jacob Ogles on Scribd
7 comments
Michael
August 28, 2024 at 9:56 am
Anna Paulina Luna has been quoted saying that people who oppose abortion bans should, “move out of your state. Move elsewhere.”
There’s a special dislike reserved for a woman by other women when that woman throws shade on most other women. If you have 16% crossover from your own party, use of the label ‘popular’ might be questioned. When you combine 22% Democrat, with 29% NPA and 16% Republican, I imagine you are toast.
Day 37
August 28, 2024 at 10:14 am
Why this is even an issue in this day and age is beyond me with all sorts of contraception for both males and females. This is one of those Demo talking points like Medicaire / Medicaid, social security scares that are designed for the uninformed and uneducated.
JD
August 28, 2024 at 10:19 am
No it’s not. And I have proof of that.
My wife’s complications with pregnancy of our twins led to an emergency c-section at 24 weeks in an attempt to save them. Had the 6 week ban been in effect as it is written, they would have died in utero because the doctors would have either not been allowed to perform the operation they did or would have been scared to do so.
This is why it matter beyond contraceptives and is NOT a Demo talking point to sway an elections. Tell the Republicans to stop doing heinous sh!t and they might not get unelected.
Day 37
August 28, 2024 at 10:28 am
I would think an emergency C section in your wife’s case would be allowed under current law. Admittedly I’m not that familiar with exceptions. I will add that I am happy that your kids and momma are doing fine.
JD
August 28, 2024 at 11:01 am
Thank you for that. It’s ambiguous and requires additional hoops now that might not come in a timely manner, especially in rural areas. In my wife’s case it was literally a decision we and the doctors had to make in 15 minutes.
Granted it is not the norm and advocating for abortion as contraceptive is not what I am saying.
But I hate when we have the science to cure man’s ailments but won’t use it because of some ideology based religion.
Remember stem cell ban under Bush 1.0? Yeah – there’s a lot that could have been done with that for diabetes, heart disease and Alzheimer’s. But they threw out the baby with the bath water because they thought it would lead to more abortions. It would not have and set back research decades.
Want to talk about cancer vaccines that were never put into production because they were blood derived and the AIDS scare in 1980s (but funny how they are all set to use Monoclonals today to treat COVID)?
Scare tactics indeed.
PeterH
August 28, 2024 at 10:41 am
Hey Anna Paulina,
Why is it that you and your wingnut do-nothing Florida House and Senate Republicans in Washington have done absolutely nothing to develop a strict immigration reform legislation. Please don’t try to pull a fast one on Floridian voters that HR 2 was your solution, because WE KNOW that when the House proposes legislation they also must identify money TO PAY FOR THE LEGISLATION. Where is the $3 trillion dollars to pay for the border wall in HR2?
Day 37
August 28, 2024 at 11:00 am
Trying to switch the blame my so called independent? This is all on Joe and Kammy. Their border policy is a complete failure. Oh and now Kammy wants to build a wall. She flip flops more than Charlie Crist. Hilarious