Post-DNC poll shows Donald Trump in dead heat with Kamala Harris in Miami-Dade County

Miami-Dade County has sided with the Democratic candidate in the past eight Presidential Elections, but that streak may end in November, new polling suggests.

Donald Trump is on track to deliver the best performance in Miami-Dade by a Republican presidential candidate since 1988, Miami-based Inquire LLC found.

As of Sunday, pollsters found Trump and Kamala Harris are in a statistical dead heat, with 47% support apiece among likely voters. The remaining 6% are undecided.

Should these figures hold or move more toward Trump through Election Day, it would mark the finest performance by a GOP presidential candidate in Miami-Dade since George H.W. Bush won the county with 55% of the vote.

Miami-Dade Commissioner Kevin Marino Cabrera, a Republican State Committeeman and Trump ally who ran the former President’s 2020 election effort in Florida, commissioned the poll.

Cabrera said he deliberately began the poll on the final night of the Democratic National Convention to capture Democrats’ “peak excitement” about Harris.

“Their enthusiasm will only go down from here,” he said, echoing what senior Trump campaign officials said last week about Harris’ “post-convention bounce.”

Pollsters found Trump is winning among Republicans 90% to 5%, while Harris is performing similarly with her party, 90% to 8%.

Among no-party voters, Trump leads Harris 49% to 41%. He also is ahead with the independent crowd in terms of favorability (50% favorable, 43% unfavorable) compared to Harris (40% favorable, 51% unfavorable).

With all voters, however, Harris is viewed in a slightly better light, with 49% of respondents saying they like her compared to 45% who said the opposite. For Trump, it was 48% favorable, 46% unfavorable.

Inquire LLC surveyed 500 likely General Election voters at random from Aug. 22-25 in English and Spanish. Interviews were stratified by precinct and demographically to reflect voter turnout from previous even-year General Elections.

The poll had a 4.5-percentage-point margin of error and 95% confidence interval.

Hillary Clinton carried the county against Trump by a 30-percentage-point margin in 2016. Four years ago, Joe Biden won there by 7 points.

As of Aug. 1, Miami-Dade had 514,308 voters registered as Democrats, 458,218 registered as Republicans and 472,407 with no party affiliation. The remaining 29,132 voters belonged to a third-party group.

Since August 2022, Democrats have lost nearly 62,000 voters in Miami-Dade, while 11,000 no-party voters either left the county or joined a party. Republicans, meanwhile, gained 25,000 voters, county voter records show.

Statewide, Republicans now hold a more than 1 million-voter advantage over Democrats.

Referring to a poll from earlier this month by Plantation-based MDW Communications that found Harris leading in Miami-Dade by 15 points, Inquire LLC personnel said their figures show how the county is actually trending.

“Despite other unreliable polling that has shown lopsided, double-digit outcomes and significant swings in partisan preference that would be unprecedented in modern political history, (our) numbers indicate that the margins in Miami-Dade County should be extremely close come November,” the firm wrote.

Cabrera agreed.

“This poll is a true reflection of voter sentiment in Miami-Dade,” he said. “Once a Democratic stronghold, Miami-Dade is no longer a guaranteed win as our community embraces conservative values and rejects the failed Biden-Harris policies ruining our nation. The results show that President Trump’s message resonates more powerfully than ever, and that he is poised to be elected as our 47th President.”