Jesse Scheckner
Miami-Dade County has sided with the Democratic candidate in the past eight Presidential Elections, but that streak may end in November, new polling suggests.
Donald Trump is on track to deliver the best performance in Miami-Dade by a Republican presidential candidate since 1988, Miami-based Inquire LLC found.
As of Sunday, pollsters found Trump and Kamala Harris are in a statistical dead heat, with 47% support apiece among likely voters. The remaining 6% are undecided.
Should these figures hold or move more toward Trump through Election Day, it would mark the finest performance by a GOP presidential candidate in Miami-Dade since George H.W. Bush won the county with 55% of the vote.
Miami-Dade Commissioner Kevin Marino Cabrera, a Republican State Committeeman and Trump ally who ran the former President’s 2020 election effort in Florida, commissioned the poll.
Cabrera said he deliberately began the poll on the final night of the Democratic National Convention to capture Democrats’ “peak excitement” about Harris.
“Their enthusiasm will only go down from here,” he said, echoing what senior Trump campaign officials said last week about Harris’ “post-convention bounce.”
Pollsters found Trump is winning among Republicans 90% to 5%, while Harris is performing similarly with her party, 90% to 8%.
Among no-party voters, Trump leads Harris 49% to 41%. He also is ahead with the independent crowd in terms of favorability (50% favorable, 43% unfavorable) compared to Harris (40% favorable, 51% unfavorable).
With all voters, however, Harris is viewed in a slightly better light, with 49% of respondents saying they like her compared to 45% who said the opposite. For Trump, it was 48% favorable, 46% unfavorable.
Inquire LLC surveyed 500 likely General Election voters at random from Aug. 22-25 in English and Spanish. Interviews were stratified by precinct and demographically to reflect voter turnout from previous even-year General Elections.
The poll had a 4.5-percentage-point margin of error and 95% confidence interval.
Hillary Clinton carried the county against Trump by a 30-percentage-point margin in 2016. Four years ago, Joe Biden won there by 7 points.
As of Aug. 1, Miami-Dade had 514,308 voters registered as Democrats, 458,218 registered as Republicans and 472,407 with no party affiliation. The remaining 29,132 voters belonged to a third-party group.
Since August 2022, Democrats have lost nearly 62,000 voters in Miami-Dade, while 11,000 no-party voters either left the county or joined a party. Republicans, meanwhile, gained 25,000 voters, county voter records show.
Statewide, Republicans now hold a more than 1 million-voter advantage over Democrats.
Referring to a poll from earlier this month by Plantation-based MDW Communications that found Harris leading in Miami-Dade by 15 points, Inquire LLC personnel said their figures show how the county is actually trending.
“Despite other unreliable polling that has shown lopsided, double-digit outcomes and significant swings in partisan preference that would be unprecedented in modern political history, (our) numbers indicate that the margins in Miami-Dade County should be extremely close come November,” the firm wrote.
Cabrera agreed.
“This poll is a true reflection of voter sentiment in Miami-Dade,” he said. “Once a Democratic stronghold, Miami-Dade is no longer a guaranteed win as our community embraces conservative values and rejects the failed Biden-Harris policies ruining our nation. The results show that President Trump’s message resonates more powerfully than ever, and that he is poised to be elected as our 47th President.”
5 comments
Day 37
August 28, 2024 at 11:29 am
How can they really even do a poll when we really don’t know what Kammy stands for? If she says “drill baby drill” at some point, I will laugh my azz off.
Journalism deserves better!
August 28, 2024 at 12:24 pm
It is literally fake news to say that Democrats have “lost nearly 62,000 voters” when a significant portion is due to the state’s redefining “active” voters as only those who voted in 2022. Many Democrats and others (largely Ds and NPAs, though) vote only in presidential years, as is their right, and so-called inactive voters absolutely retain their ability to vote – and will. They are not “lost,” despite the pro-Republican spin the DeSantis administration has put on the stats to make Rs appear even more dominant than they already are.
Delusions
August 28, 2024 at 1:03 pm
Open boarders. Come one come all …capitalize on the land. Leave no stone unturned.
Mine the fields find gold 🥇
Choices 😁
Michael
August 28, 2024 at 1:49 pm
The 538 website lists out and ranks about 500 pollsters. It ain’t hard to get on this list since near the bottom of the list are such polling luminaries as Middle Tennessee State University and University of South Alabama Polling Group. Since neither MDW nor Inquire even make this list, I figure their polls are about as useful as getting MLB World Series handicapping from the Martin County Little League.
Pat
August 30, 2024 at 10:08 pm
This article should have come with a disclaimer that the poll in question was commissioned by a Trumper with a vested interest in casting his candidate in a favorable light. I wonder how his poll was phrased, what was the composition/demographics of his respondents, and who or what political organization(s) paid for or sponsored this poll. It clearly isn’t commissioned by a non-partisan or independent person or organization. The writer and Florida Politics should have done a better job editing this article.
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