Gay Valimont is a long-shot versus Matt Gaetz in Florida’s reddest congressional district

Few members of Congress boast the ability to captivate media attention like U.S. Rep. Matt Gaetz. But Democrat Gay Valimont hopes voters in Florida’s Panhandle will grow tired of his antics by Fall.

The Republican incumbent, who just swatted off a GOP Primary challenger backed by ousted Speaker Kevin McCarthy, faces Valimont in the Nov. 5 General Election. Will voters in the heavily Republican district stick with the one of Congress’ most familiar faces or opt for change?

“With Gay Valimont, voters can trust in a candidate who genuinely cares about the district’s future and its fundamental values,” reads a statement provided by her campaign to Florida Politics. “As we navigate the complexities of our political landscape in the next two months, let us remember that our collective strength lies in our unity.”

But Gaetz, who first won election to Congress in 2016, said the voters of Florida’s 1st Congressional District always supported him before. He’s confident voters will still see him as representative of the region’s values.

“I’m running to secure the border, cut federal spending and return America to economic success,” Gaetz told Florida Politics. “My opponent is running as an anti-gun activist.”

The incumbent also has plenty of firepower behind his bid. As of the end of July, Gaetz had $1.14 million in cash on hand after raising $5.69 million over the course of the election cycle, according to Federal Election Commission records. At the same point in time, Valimont raised nearly $696,000 but holds onto just under $133,000 in cash on hand.

But Valimont, despite facing an incumbent in arguably Florida’s reddest district, has raised more than all but two nonincumbent Democrats running for Congress in Florida. Whitney Fox in St. Petersburg and Phil Ehr in Miami raised more to challenge U.S. Reps. Anna Paulina Luna and Carlos Giménez, respectively.

Valimont has benefited from national donations from critics of Gaetz, a close ally of Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump and a fixture on right-wing media and cable news.

But Gaetz, the son of a former Florida Senate President also on the ballot this year, already fended off well-financed opposition before. His Primary challenger, Aaron Dimmock, had been vetted by McCarthy, who became the first-ever House Speaker removed from office following a motion to vacate by Gaetz. The CD 1 Primary earned national attention as part of a McCarthy “revenge tour” against intraparty rivals who undid his speakership.

When Gaetz won his Primary with nearly 73% of the vote, he saw it as vindication that voters have his back.

“It seems tonight, we have taught a lesson to the nation that Florida man and Florida woman does not bend to the swamp rats in Washington,” he said as results rolled in.

But in a General Election with independents, Democrats and casual Republicans casting ballots, Valimont hopes for a different result.

“Gay believes our home in District 1 has a widely diverse population with different perspectives and she recognizes that our experiences and viewpoints contribute to a richer, more inclusive democracy,” reads a statement from her campaign.

“Together, we can build bridges, address challenges and work towards solutions that benefit all. Unlike her opponent, Matt Gaetz, Gay prioritizes genuine service over personal gain and spectacle. Her deep connection to the district, rooted in her family’s cherished memories, fuels her dedication to fighting for the health and well-being of every resident, as fiercely as she has for her own family. Gay is a staunch advocate for a woman’s right to choose, and is committed to enhancing veterans’ affairs, ensuring our military personnel receive the support and care they deserve.”

Like many Democrats, Valimont could benefit from abortion and marijuana measures, both of which Gaetz opposes, appearing on the ballot in November.

But ultimately, the fundamentals of the race still tilt in Gaetz’s favor. More than 65% of voters in CD 1 backed Trump for President in 2020, the highest percentage of any district in the state of Florida. In 2022, nearly 72% supported Republican U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio’s re-election and 73% backed Gov. Ron DeSantis for a second term.

And when voting rolls closed before the August Primary, registered Republicans made up nearly 55% of all voters in the district, with almost 292,000 Republicans on the rolls compared to under 113,000 Democrats and just over 110,000 with no party affiliation.

In 2022, Gaetz defeated a well-financed Democratic opponent, Rebekah Jones, with almost 68% of the vote. In 2020, he earned almost 65% support against Ehr, and two years before that, Gaetz beat Jennifer Zimmerman with 67% support.