Chamber poll shows Donald Trump, Rick Scott with strong leads in Florida

Scott Trump
The poll also found discontent with the Joe Biden-Kamala Harris administration's economic policies.

Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump and U.S. Sen. Rick Scott enter the General Election season as favorites to win in Florida, according to the state’s largest business lobby.

The latest Florida Chamber of Commerce/Cherry Communications poll shows Republicans winning the only statewide elections this cycle. The poll has Trump leading Democratic nominee Kamala Harris 52% to 45%. That importantly puts the Florida Republican above a majority threshold to win.

The poll found voters with no party affiliation, a critical bloc, breaking for Trump. About 53% of no-party voters surveyed say they intend to vote for Trump, while just 43% will support Harris.

Meanwhile, Scott also holds the edge as he seeks a second term in the U.S. Senate. Pollsters found some 51% of voters ready to re-elect the Naples Republican, compared to 44% who plan to vote for Democratic Senate nominee Debbie Mucarsel-Powell.

The Republican Senator enjoys the backing of 88% of Republicans in Florida. He also boasts the backing of 51% of no-party voters, while just 40% plan to vote for his Democratic challenger.

“Scott also has a strong lead among older voters with 54% supporting him, while 41% support Mucarsel-Powell,” a polling memo reads.

Trump’s lead tracks with results showing most Floridians unhappy with President Joe Biden and Vice President Harris’ administration. About 54% of Florida voters feel the Democratic administration’s policies have made the national economy worse, compared to 37% who think they made it better.

“Additionally, more than half (53%) of NPAs, half (50%) of Hispanics and more than half (56%) of older voters believe the Biden-Harris administration’s economic policies have had a negative impact on America’s economy,” the polling memo adds.

And 59% disapprove of the administration’s handling of the Israeli-Hamas war, including 76% of Republicans, 62% of no-party voters and 60% of Hispanics.

Pollsters surveyed 600 voters between Aug. 15 and 26, a time period that spanned Florida’s statewide Primary when more voters were politically engaged. The polling breakdown included 254 Republicans, 217 Democrats and 129 other voters. The poll had a 4-percentage-point margin of error.

Jacob Ogles

Jacob Ogles has covered politics in Florida since 2000 for regional outlets including SRQ Magazine in Sarasota, The News-Press in Fort Myers and The Daily Commercial in Leesburg. His work has appeared nationally in The Advocate, Wired and other publications. Events like SRQ’s Where The Votes Are workshops made Ogles one of Southwest Florida’s most respected political analysts, and outlets like WWSB ABC 7 and WSRQ Sarasota have featured his insights. He can be reached at [email protected].


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