Staff Reports
Last Call – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics.
First Shot
Another national poll shows Vice President Kamala Harris outperforming former President Donald Trump and building substantial leads among crucial voting blocs.
The Suffolk University/USA Today poll, conducted Aug. 25-28, found Harris with 47.6% support to Trump’s 43.3%. Third-party candidates combine to 4.4% support. The remaining 4.8% are undecided.
Harris’ lead is an eight-point swing from a Suffolk poll taken shortly after Trump’s debate with President Joe Biden when the latter was still the presumptive Democratic nominee. That poll gave Trump a 41.4%–37.5% lead. That poll also put RFK Jr., who has since exited the race, at 8.2%.
Suffolk’s top-line jibes with recent measures from other pollsters, most of which show Harris with a two- to four-point advantage. Polling averages from FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics show the VP leading nationally by 3.4% and 1.6%, respectively.
Beyond the top-line, Suffolk’s polling memo emphasized major swings in demographics that were key to Biden’s 2020 win, and all were in the Democratic nominee’s favor.
Since June, voters earning less than $20,000 a year have gone from plus-3 Trump to plus-23 Harris; voters aged 18 to 34 went from plus-11 Trump to plus-13 Harris; Hispanic voters went from plus-2 Trump to plus-16 Harris; and Black voters went from plus-47 Biden to plus-64 Harris.
“With the ‘Brat Summer’ of Kamala Harris memes and emojis winding down, young people, persons of color, and low-income households have swung dramatically toward the vice president,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. “These same demographics were emphasized and woven together by numerous speakers at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago.”
Suffolk did note a challenge for the Harris campaign: Harris’ plus-64 with Black voters is 20 points back from the plus-85 Biden secured in November 2020. The pollster attributes the gap to “a small fraction of young Black men who are holding back support for Harris or even voting for Trump.”
Evening Reads
—“Pennsylvania may be a problem for Kamala Harris” via Nate Silver of the Silver Bulletin
—”Harris takes the lead in three swing state polls from Fox News” via Dave Trotter of Voting Trend
—”Inside Harris’ L.A. Life: SoulCycle, Hollywood parties, annoyed neighbors” via Erich Schwartzel of The Wall Street Journal
—”JD Vance defends telling Harris to ‘go to hell’ for nonexistent cemetery criticism” via Meryl Kornfield of The Washington Post
—”How Joe Biden’s Senate allies helped push him from the race” via Carl Hulse of The New York Times
—”I got COVID at the DNC. Why’s the next pandemic absent from this campaign?” via David Catatnese of Too Close To Call
—“What a bad month for ‘political pundits.’” via Dave Trotter of Voting Trend
—“Money from hemp industry flowed into Florida GOP coffers after veto, frantic group chat effort” via Shira Moolten of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel
—“Ron DeSantis rejects ‘chatter’ that he’s losing ‘grip’ over Florida Republicans” via A.G. Gancarski of Florida Politics
—”Carolina Amesty indicted on forgery charges” via Annie Martin and Leslie Postal of the Orlando Sentinel
Quote of the Day
“We can save ourselves a lot of time and drama here — Leonard Spencer will be the next Representative for HD 45.”
— House Democratic Leader Fentrice Driskell, on Rep. Carolina Amesty surrendering herself to authorities at the Orange County Jail.
Put it on the Tab
Look to your left, then look to your right. If you see one of these people at your happy hour haunt, flag down the bartender and put one of these on your tab. Recipes included, just in case the Cocktail Codex fell into the well.
There’s a listicle for everything, even Banned-Book Inspired Cocktails. Pick your favorite and grab the popcorn because Penguin Random House, Simon & Schuster, and a host of authors are suing the state for pulling books from media center shelves.
We almost skipped recommending a Forgery because of its middling three-star rating, but it appears Rep. Carolina Amesty only did a three-star job forging Robert Shaffer’s signature … allegedly.
We haven’t seen it yet, but order a Feel-Good Hit Of The Summer for former House Democratic Leader Kionne McGhee, whose life story is the subject of a feature-length biopic set to debut this weekend in Miami.
Breakthrough Insights
Tune In
Miami and Florida kickoff football season Saturday
The first full weekend of college football continues with dozens of games scheduled for Saturday, including the Miami Hurricanes at the Florida Gators (3:30 p.m. ABC).
Miami enters the season ranked 19th in The Associated Press poll. The Hurricanes are slight favorites despite playing on the road. The Canes will start Cam Ward at quarterback in his Miami debut. The former Washington State quarterback threw for 3,735 yards with 25 touchdowns and just seven interceptions last season for the Cougars.
Florida finished last season 5-7 but returns quarterback Graham Mertz, who took even better care of the ball than Ward last season. Mertz tossed 20 touchdown passes and was intercepted only three times in his first season in Gainesville.
Saturday’s game will be the 57th football meeting between the two schools, with Miami holding a 29-27 lead all-time. Florida won the last meeting in the series 24-20 in 2019 in a game played in Orlando.
Saturday’s game will mark just the second time that Florida and Miami will play a football game in the last 11 years.
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Last Call is published by Peter Schorsch, assembled and edited by Phil Ammann and Drew Wilson, with contributions from the staff of Florida Politics.
