Poll: Sean Shaw has a big lane and Hillsborough Dems might be making a comeback

A new survey has good news abound for Hillsborough County Democrats, with results showing Sean Shaw on track to keep a Hillsborough County Commission seat blue and Democrats in the county overall recapturing support they lost two years ago.

The survey from Impact Research, obtained by Florida Politics, shows Shaw with a 4-percentage-point lead over his GOP opponent in the District 6 race to replace outgoing Hillsborough Commissioner Pat Kemp. Shaw leads Republican Chris Boles 45% to 41%, with 14% of voters still undecided.

The lead is within the poll’s margin of error, which is a sizable 4.6 percentage points. And with a decent chunk of voters still undecided, a win is by no means guaranteed for the former Representative.

But Shaw’s numbers get better when voters are introduced to the candidates, and better still when offered Shaw’s campaign messaging. When given what the poll describes as “balanced candidate biographies” Shaw’s lead bumps up to 6 percentage points (49% support for Shaw to Boles’ 43%), while undecideds drop to 8%.

Taken a step further, Shaw’s lead balloons to nearly 20 points when respondents are offered positive messaging for Shaw and negative details about Boles.

And the survey contains more good news for Democrats in Hillsborough County who are still smarting from the red wave in 2022. That cycle led to Republicans retaking control of the Hillsborough County Commission while expanding advantages in both chambers of the Legislature.

Asked about the Presidential Election this year, Hillsborough County poll respondents favored Vice President Kamala Harris by 9 percentage points over former President Donald Trump. For perspective, President Joe Biden clinched Hillsborough County in 2020 by about 7 points. And that was before the county rode the 2022 red wave, which saw Ron DeSantis win the county with more than 54% of the vote, a 9-point win over Democratic challenger Charlie Crist.

In races that year for Hillsborough County Commission, two Democrats lost their seats to Republican challengers, despite sizable fundraising advantages. And a third, Harry Cohen, only narrowly held his seat by less than a percentage point.

That means that if the poll’s numbers prove to be close to accurate, it would represent a huge pendulum swing back toward Democrats’ favor.

The District 6 seat Shaw is seeking is a big pickup opportunity for the GOP, with Kemp leaving office to run for Congress. Democrats have fielded candidates in both District 2 and 4 hoping for some pickup opportunities of their own, but they face better funded GOP incumbents in those races.

The District 2 seat, held by incumbent Republican Ken Hagan, has shown some signs of light for Democrats through voter registration changes. But Hagan has raised nearly $228,000 for his re-election while his Democratic challenger, Patricia Alonzo, has raised just over $22,000.

In District 4, incumbent Christine Miller has raised nearly $138,000 compared to less than $13,000 for her Democratic challenger, Nicole Payne. Miller has been the incumbent for less than a year, having been recently appointed to the seat by DeSantis after former Commissioner Michael Owen resigned.