Staff Reports
Last Call – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics.
First Shot
Former President Donald Trump can cite all the social media straw polls he wants, but the first wave of post-debate polling shows voters aren’t living in his reality.
For the past week and change, it appeared the pendulum was swinging back toward Trump after spending several weeks with Vice President Kamala Harris. Trump inched toward parity in many polls and even retook the lead in others.
But the rubberbanding may be over.
Harris is leading by a full five points in the only two major polls conducted after the debate — Ipsos/Reuters has her up 47%-42% and Morning Consult gives the VP a 50%-45% lead.
The latter poll represents a two-point shift from before the debate, when Morning Consult pegged the race at 49%-46%, with Harris ahead. A caveat: The pollster’s post-debate measure was derived from a smaller sample (3,317) than the weekly tracker (10,000-plus), so the statistical significance of the shift is, well … debatable.
The fresh Ipsos/Reuters results are just a point off the pollster’s prior measure, which put Harris up four points. Still, voters who were familiar enough with the debate to comment on it were clear: Harris won.
Ipsos found that 53% of voters who “had heard at least something” about the debate said Harris won, while just 24% said Trump was the victor — a far cry from the “80%-20%” and “90%-10%” metrics the former President has been trumpeting sans citation.
It’s anyone’s guess whether the debate bump is A) real and B) here to stay. This contest has been raffishly unpredictable to the point a viral pet-eating TikTok could turn everything on its head.
Evening Reads
—“Kamala Harris, after a debate success, confronts a battleground ‘game of inches’” via Reid J. Epstein, Erica L. Green and Nicholas Nehamas of The New York Times
—”Donald Trump’s repetitive speech is a bad sign” via Richard A. Friedman of The Atlantic
—”Abortion foes use government power to fight red-state ballot measures” via Molly Hennessy-Fiske, Lori Rozsa and Annie Gowen of The Washington Post
—“How the GOP became the party of racist memes against Haitian immigrants” via Zack Beauchamp of Vox
—”Florida is disappearing from the national political map” via Matt Dixon of NBC News
—“Florida’s high court poised to protect Ron DeSantis’ congressional map that helps GOP” via Gary Fineout of POLITICO Florida
—“Lavish catering under ex-UF president Ben Sasse: $38,610 sushi bar, holiday party that cost nearly $900 per person” via Garrett Shanley of Fresh Take Florida
—”Stormy Daniels versus the world” via EJ Dickson of Rolling Stone
—“Inside Google’s 7-year mission to give AI a robot body” via Hans Peter Brondmo of WIRED
Quote of the Day
“Employees of the University of Florida are expected to be good stewards of university funds.”
— A UF rule that seemingly doesn’t apply to former U.S. Senators.
Put it on the Tab
Look to your left, then look to your right. If you see one of these people at your happy hour haunt, flag down the bartender and put one of these on your tab. Recipes included, just in case the Cocktail Codex fell into the well.
Let’s see how much the Governor cares about Wisconsin elections after his third Cherry Bounce. Feel free to sub in whatever other gross stuff they drink up there.
We don’t know who “Chris” is, but based on Ben Sasse’s expense reports, we think he could afford to buy each of us something off this ritzy menu.
Something about Debbie Mucarsel-Powell’s latest fundraising blast left a bitter taste in our mouths … no, not like Fernet. Not like al Monte, either. Eh, whatever, just mix the two in a cup and say bottom’s up!
Breakthrough Insights
Tune In
Among a full slate of college football games on Saturday is a matchup of a pair of Florida universities as Florida International faces Florida Atlantic in Boca Raton (6 p.m. ET, ESPN+).
It is the first time the two schools will meet since FAU’s 52-7 thrashing in 2022. The Owls lead the all-time series 16-5 and have won six straight matchups against the Panthers.
FAU (0-2) opened the season with a 16-10 loss at Michigan State before falling at home to Army 24-7 in the American Conference opener. FAU did not have a player selected for the preseason all-conference first-team in the American Conference. Center Federico Maranges was a second-team pick.
FIU (1-1) opened the season with a 31-7 loss at Indiana before rebounding with a 52-16 win over Central Michigan on Saturday. Panthers’ quarterback Keyone Jenkins was selected as a preseason all-Conference USA selection.
The game is known as the Shula Bowl in honor of longtime Miami Dolphins coach Don Shula. Both schools have ties to Shula. FAU’s first head coach, Howard Schnellenberger, was an assistant for Shula in the 1970s, and FIU’s first head coach, Don Strock, played for Shula in the NFL.
The winner of the game has been awarded the Don Shula Award, a traveling trophy, since 2002.
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Last Call is published by Peter Schorsch, assembled and edited by Phil Ammann and Drew Wilson, with contributions from the staff of Florida Politics.
