Ryan Nicol
Does Donald Trump’s disastrous debate mean Florida is in play this November?
With polls moving toward Democrats since Kamala Harris took over as the nominee and Trump’s cat-astrophically poor performance Tuesday, it may be worth it for national Democrats to consider pouring more resources into the Sunshine State.
We have expressed skepticism that Democrats could win the state just two years after Republicans Ron DeSantis and Marco Rubio won by 19 and 16 points, respectively.
But just because it may be difficult for Harris to win Florida outright doesn’t mean the party should forget the state exists.
Yes, the bulk of available cash should go into true battleground states, particularly Pennsylvania. Florida polling has shown some hope for Democrats, however. FiveThirtyEight gives Trump just over a 4-point edge in the polling average. Nate Silver has Trump’s lead at around 4.5 points, while RealClearPolitics gives Trump a 6-point advantage.
Those are difficult — though not insurmountable — differences to overcome. But they do paint a picture that Florida is not nearly as red as 2022 implied. And by ensuring some dollars are going to Florida, down-ballot races that Republicans won amid last cycle’s red wave would appear ripe to return to the blue team, perhaps breaking the GOP supermajority in one or both state legislative chambers.
But Democrats also need to ensure they are taking a flier on the state’s U.S. Senate race.
Democrats nationally have a bad map this year, with many more of their seats up for grabs than those controlled by Republicans. Democrats also have only a one-vote advantage in the Senate already, and Republicans are all but guaranteed to win the West Virginia Senate seat with longtime incumbent Democratic U.S. Sen. Joe Manchin retiring.
That would put the Senate at a 50-50 split, enough to control via the Vice President’s tie-breaking vote if Democrats win the White House. But Democrats also face a tall task at defending Democratic U.S. Sen. Jon Tester’s seat in ruby red Montana.
That is to say, they need to try to play in a few red states for some insurance in case that Tester seat flips. And while RealClearPolitics has Trump with a 6-point lead in the presidential race, Republican U.S. Sen. Rick Scott’s lead is only around 4 points.
If Trump becomes a drag in the weeks ahead — and hanging out with psychos like Laura Loomer is surely not helping him with the majority of registered sane people — is it crazy to think Democrats could pull out a surprise win in the state’s Senate contest?
Again, we wouldn’t bet on it given even odds. But far crazier things have certainly happened in politics.
Now, it’s onto our weekly game of winners and losers.
Winners
Honorable mention: South Florida film production. State lawmakers have gone back and forth over whether to reinstate Florida’s film incentives program, and so far haven’t pulled the trigger. But efforts by two major municipalities in South Florida to attract filmmakers may cause them to reconsider.
Both Miami-Dade County and the city of Fort Lauderdale celebrated their respective efforts this week.
A program in Miami-Dade backed by Commissioner René García, a former member of the Legislature. Both “Dexter: Origins” and “Pulse,” a series about the health care industry, will be produced in the county.
“These two projects already invested roughly $12 million in the last few months into our economy,” García said.
And Fort Lauderdale Mayor Dean Trantalis laid out on X the effects of promoting the city’s arts and film production scene, creating more than 2,800 local crew jobs in the last year, and noting the filming of “Bad Boys: Ride or Die” and “Love & Hip Hop” in the city.
Will legislators in Tallahassee listen? We’ll know in just a few months when the 2025 Session kicks off.
Almost (but not quite) the biggest winner: DeSantis congressional map. The Florida Supreme Court appears ready to keep in place a congressional map bullied through by the Governor following the 2020 census. Not only that, they may go so far as throwing out the Fair Districts Amendment approved by voters in 2010.
It’s unsurprising that a court packed with DeSantis appointees would go along with the Governor’s plan, which he forced through after expressing concerns with the Republican-controlled Legislature’s original proposal.
That cartography didn’t go far enough for DeSantis, who sought to break up a North Florida district represented by former U.S. Rep. Al Lawson, a Black Democrat. The entirety of North Florida is now represented by White Republicans.
That raised concerns for some who worried the move diminished Black voting power. DeSantis’ team argued Lawson’s district was an improper gerrymander simply to ensure Black voters had effective control of one district in the region.
It appears DeSantis is set to win out based on a Florida Supreme Court hearing this week. “Being mindful of race and of the history of prejudice is very different from using race as a guiding predominant use or principle,” Justice John Couriel said, raising concerns that the Lawson district ran counter to the Voting Rights Act.
Parties are still awaiting a final decision, but all signs are that DeSantis will get a win here.
The biggest winner: Florida Haitian leaders. After unfounded rumors accusing Haitian immigrants of eating people’s pets spread like wildfire, reaching all the way to Trump’s mouth on Tuesday’s debate stage, several leading Haitian American officials in South Florida spoke up to denounce the scaremongering rhetoric.
State Reps. Dotie Joseph and Marie Woodson were among the first to speak out, along with Coral Springs Commissioner Nancy Metayer Bowen.
“The conman compulsion to deflect from your inadequacies by scapegoating immigrants, especially Black ones, is plain pathetic,” Joseph said in comments directing to vice presidential candidate JD Vance, one of the first to help fan the flames.
U.S. Rep. Sheila Cherfilus McCormick also spoke against the rumors following Trump bringing up the unfounded stories at the debate.
“Donald Trump is once again fixating on fictitious stories rooted in racist stereotypes in hopes of scaring Americans into voting for him,” she said.
“It’s insulting, it’s false, and it’s rooted in the worst kinds of stereotypes. Let’s be clear: Haitians and other immigrants come to this country committed to education, hard work, and building a better life, not just for themselves but for all of us. They contribute to our economy, enrich our culture, and strengthen our communities. Trump’s comments are a distraction from the real issues we face, and we won’t be fooled.”
It is patently insane that leaders are so loose with the facts just to advance an anti-immigration narrative to score some political points. We say anti-immigration rather than anti-illegal immigration because Haitian migrants are currently under Temporary Protected Status due to violent turmoil in their home country. So the vast majority of those bearing the brunt of this rhetoric are people who did use legitimate processes to enter the U.S.
Unsurprisingly, bomb threats forced schools to close twice this week in Springfield, Ohio, the site of the as-yet-unproven pet eating. Credit to leaders in Florida for speaking out and attempting to calm things down. But with the amount of BS floating around social media, it’s a Sisyphean effort.
Losers
Dishonorable mention: Miami-Dade Police. The agency lands her for their heavily scrutinized mishandling of an incident involving Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill.
You’ve probably seen most of the discussion so we won’t rehash it all here, other than to say that Hill’s most recent remarks about sum up our position. He certainly “could have been better,” as Hill told it, after he failed to originally comply with officers.
But Hill failed to comply in a sense that he was being an obnoxious jerk. He did not threaten the officers or lash out physically. And by the time they went to drag him out of the car and pin him to the ground in handcuffs, he already appeared to be backing down and ready to exit the vehicle.
The solution, then, was to threaten Hill with additional fines or sanctions, not to get physical and risk another violent tragedy to add to this nation’s long list of them.
And wouldn’t you know it, news broke Friday that the main officer who escalated the situation, and whom Hill said should be fired, has been suspended a half-dozen times over his 27-year career.
Maybe the agency should try a more forceful punishment? He clearly isn’t complying with their requests to get in line.
Almost (but not quite) the biggest loser: State University System. Nearly a year ago, we placed Florida’s universities in the loser column after a mixed bag in terms of their movement on the U.S. News & World Report college and university rankings.
We pointed out then that the news wasn’t all bad, as some schools dropped and others gained, but we also noted that “Republican lawmakers should hope this was a blip and not a sign of more severe falls to come.”
“Republicans’ efforts to reshape Florida’s colleges and universities is also in its infancy, and it’s possible as more of those changes take effect, it could ding Florida among analysts. Given the GOP’s outsized involvement in recent years, leaders are set to take increased credit or blame, depending on which way the rankings shake out in the coming years,” we said then.
Well, here we are a year later. And despite some positive signs this year regarding tuition and graduation rates, things are looking even worse overall.
New rankings from The Wall Street Journal — not a liberal rag — have just two of Florida’s higher ed institutions in its Top 100. Both plummeted from last year’s list, with Florida International University falling from No. 29 to No. 77. The University of Florida is free falling even further, from No. 15 last year to No. 83, dropping faster than the university’s budget balance under a Ben Sasse presidency.
Yes, we are comparing two different sets of rankings here. But the new U.S. News & World Report rankings are due in just over a week. Will they counter The Wall Street Journals’ bearishness on Florida’s higher ed scene? Or just further drive home that Florida’s education reputation is faltering?
The biggest loser: Anti-Amendment 4 shenanigans. The state is facing a lawsuit over its decision to use state resources to fund ads and a state website opposing a ballot initiative that would protect abortion rights.
Sorry, aren’t Republicans supposed to be against big government?
We have criticized the state before for taking action that will surely lead to costly lawsuits, thereby burning taxpayer money (fiscal conservatives, by the way). Here, it’s even worse, as they are spending money upfront that they shouldn’t just to guarantee that they’ll also have to defend a lawsuit over those expenditures.
Democrats are also criticizing the state for going to individuals’ doors to investigate potential fraud regarding whether some petition signatures were fraudulent. To be clear, the state may well have a right to investigate that. Should they have done it well before now? Absolutely, but at least there’s some plausible argument that they could find some legitimate wrongdoing there.
But this? Dumping taxpayer funds into a campaign that every poll so far has shown a majority of Floridians support?
One might call that election interference.
