Jacob Ogles
A Florida-based polling firm finds support for ballot initiatives on abortion and marijuana both under the necessary 60% threshold to pass. But Victory Insights pollsters say both measures still have paths to victory.
The Republican-led firm, which has an office in Naples, found more than 54% of likely voters in Florida intend to support Amendment 3, which would legalize recreational pot use by adults. Meanwhile, 29% intend to vote down the measure. Constitutional amendments must reach 60% support to pass and become part of the state constitution.
But in a polling memo, senior pollster Ben Galbraith said the critical number in the survey may be those still in the undecided column. Almost 17% of respondents have yet to make up their minds.
“Though support for Amendment 3 still lags behind the 60% threshold, it’s clear that voters heavily favor it,” Galbraith wrote. He goes on to say supporters have “ample opportunity to pick up the remaining 6% support needed to pass the measure.”
Pollsters report a 4.4-percentage-point margin of error.
Support appears more dicey for Amendment 4, which would reverse Florida’s strict restrictions on abortion passed after the overturning of Roe v. Wade. Just shy of 50% of voters say they intend to vote for the measure, according to the poll. Just over 29% say they are firmly against the amendment.
“This is lower than the support for Amendment 3, and well below the 60% threshold needed to pass,” Galbreath wrote, “but it’s important to note that more than 1 in 5 voters remain undecided, providing ample opportunity for the amendment to pick up another (about) 10% support in order to reach the threshold.”
About 72% of Democrats surveyed support the recreational pot measure. An even higher percentage of Democrats, about 76%, support reversing Florida’s abortion restrictions.
But 48% of Republicans oppose the abortion measure and just 23% support it, significantly hindering the path to 60% of the overall vote. In contrast, 43% of Republicans oppose recreational pot, but 39% support the measure.
Both amendments enjoy about 57% support now from voters belonging to neither major party.
13 comments
Cheesy Floridian
September 30, 2024 at 1:01 pm
First things first, the poll was done by a republican led firm.
2nd, who did they speak to regarding these amendments? It’s telling because a lot of other polls from different firms say that both Amendments, especially the abortion one, are closer to 60%. I really feel that with how DeSantis has been pushing the state to the right, a lot of people are going to come out in support for both of these amendments.
Michael
September 30, 2024 at 1:30 pm
While they released a very colorful PDF report, they very notably omit any details of sample construction (R, D, NPA %, age brackets) well as no details as to polling methodology (landline, cell, online). That’s suspicious flag #1.
#2…note how the undecided % for candidates is significantly smaller than undecided for the two amendments. While you can argue being undecided for candidates is due to holding off to see what might be said or done prior to election, there is nothing that is going to change with how the amendments are worded. In this case, I think undecided really means uninterested. Who would be uninterested?…..very old people who have no interest in marijuana use and are biologically uninterested in abortion rights. My guess is this sample skews heavy on people 55 or older…..but we’ll never know.
cassandra was right
September 30, 2024 at 1:40 pm
Who did they ask? What exactly did they ask? The poll isn’t up on their website.
Republican pollster doing DeSantis a favor. (They don’t want the Ron retaliation!) But they made sure to record enough undecideds to protect their reputation when Amendment 4 wins!
Abortion rights amendments have passed in EVERY STATE that has voted on them!
AMENDMENT 4 WILL PASS in Florida!
YES on 4
YES on 3
Cheesy Floridian
September 30, 2024 at 2:20 pm
THANK YOU!
cassandra was right
September 30, 2024 at 6:26 pm
Great news from Georgia!!!
“A Georgia judge has struck down the state’s 6-week abortion ban! In an absolutely epic ruling, Fulton county Judge Robert McBurney didn’t just repeal the law—but eviscerated it as forcing women to be “human incubators.” —-AED
Judge rules:
“Women are not some piece of collectively owned community property the disposition of which is decided by majority vote. Forcing a woman to carry an unwanted, not-yet-viable fetus to term violates her constitutional rights to liberty and privacy, even taking into consideration whatever bundle of rights the not-yet-viable fetus may have.
…It is not for a legislator, a judge, or a Commander from The Handmaid’s Tale to tell these women what to do with their bodies during this period when the fetus cannot survive outside the womb any more so than society could–or should–force them to serve as a human tissue bank or to give up a kidney for the benefit of another.” —-Jessica Valenti, Abortioneveryday.com
Abortion rights are SELF-EVIDENT!
FREEDOM! CHOICE!
VOTE YES On 4!
Kevin
September 30, 2024 at 4:10 pm
As mentioned, 17% have yet to “make up their mind”. The most reasonable approximation is to calculate no impact by the undecided voters. That would be 54 / (54 + 29) = 65. So the poll indicates passage by 65%.
MarvinM
October 1, 2024 at 6:06 pm
17% undecided is huge.
And 29% No is really low.
If none of the undecideds vote, Amendment 4 passes with 65%. (54/83)
If all the undecideds vote, and that vote is split 50/50, Amendment 4 passes with 62.5%.
What would it take from this data to extrapolate Amending 4 not passing?
Assuming all undecideds decide (and vote), 65% of them would have to vote No.
That’s a super high bar. Not impossible but highly improbable.
I would say Amendment 4 is well on its way to passage.
Cindy
October 1, 2024 at 8:52 pm
Weed will be around regardless.. plus no state tax. So the bundle of cash made ..it will still go into pockets. Just not so much retail.
Cheesy Floridian
October 1, 2024 at 8:59 pm
But it will still be illegal for rec use which means people get caught up i the courts for something we could make legal. Yes on 3 yes on 4
Be Careful What You Wish For
October 2, 2024 at 10:52 am
Amendment 3 has raised significant concerns among dispensary workers and patients. Firstly, unlike other states with recreational marijuana laws, this bill does not permit patients to grow their own cannabis. This restriction is very troubling given the number of contaminants—such as banned pesticides and microbes—found in recreational products, alongside the heavy carbon footprint of warehouse grows, which can be up to 50 times that of outdoor cultivation. The very high taxation on recreational marijuana, could make access too expensive.
The proposal to cap THC levels raises alarms about the effectiveness of available products. Sales will be tracked via driver licenses, raising privacy concerns, and the industry is currently grappling with widespread quality control issues. Heavy metals, banned pesticides, and mold are increasingly found in recreational cannabis. Alarmingly, reports indicate that up to 40% of products in states like NY are mislabeled, sometimes showing THC levels up to 60% higher than actual content.
Shortages are likely to worsen with increased demand. The REMOVAL of microbial testing in NY has further exacerbated health concerns, as growers prioritize profit over safety. This is a constitutional change that is difficult to amend, many fear that Amendment 3 pitfalls far outweigh the benefits.
Trulieve representatives have revealed they are not offering discounts to recreational buyers and anticipate long wait times for purchases (2-4 hours), further complicating access. The smell associated with cannabis, often celebrated for its terpenes, is actually primarily due to volatile organic compounds, adding another layer to the debate over widespread public consumption.
Health, safety, quality, cost, flexibility for future changes, and accessibility, are prompting many in the dispensary community, and many patients to advocate for a “NO” vote. The negatives far outweigh the positives.
Noble Causes
October 2, 2024 at 11:15 am
The prohibition on patient home-grow helps maintain strict regulation of cannabis cultivation, which ensures consistent product quality and safety standards. Home-growing, especially indoors, poses safety risks such as mold, electrical issues, and security concerns due to the high value of cannabis plants, making them targets for theft. By keeping cultivation regulated, Amendment 3 reduces these risks and helps curb black market activity. While some states have faced contamination issues, legalization often enhances testing and oversight, ensuring that products are safer and meet stringent standards. High taxes on recreational cannabis fund public services and typically do not apply to medical patients, preserving affordability for those who need it most.
THC caps in the proposal are likely aimed at promoting responsible consumption, particularly for new users, and may not impact medical patients, who can still access higher-potency products. Though there are concerns about future additions to the law, any changes made by lawmakers could be influenced by public demand and further tailored to balance safety and access. Sales tracking via driver licenses is a common practice to prevent over-purchasing and diversion to the black market, and privacy protections will be in place, as seen in other regulated industries like alcohol and pharmaceuticals.
The existing quality control issues in some states underscore the importance of a well-regulated market. Amendment 3 can address these concerns by establishing robust testing and labeling standards, ensuring consumers receive safe and accurately labeled products. Although shortages could arise initially with increased demand, the legal market will scale up supply as more licensed growers and dispensaries enter the system, helping to ease these concerns.
Concerns about the removal of microbial testing in New York are state-specific and should not be generalized. Amendment 3 can be structured to include mandatory testing for contaminants, ensuring consumer health and safety. While there is worry about the constitutional nature of the amendment making it hard to modify, laws can evolve over time. Many states have successfully amended their cannabis laws to adapt to changing needs, and public pressure can push for necessary adjustments or corrections.
Initial long wait times and a lack of discounts are common when recreational markets first open but tend to resolve as the industry matures, with more dispensaries opening and competition driving prices down. Lastly, while cannabis smell might raise concerns, this can be managed through designated consumption areas, similar to how alcohol and tobacco use is regulated in public spaces, ensuring a balance between public enjoyment and responsible regulation.
Weed is Already Legal
October 4, 2024 at 11:50 am
Weed is already legal in FL … you simply need a Medical Card and a doctor’s recommendation for a wide variety of common ailments that almost anyone can quality for. Quality, well regulated product is widely available tax-fee in dispensaries across the state, and FL has none of the problems of other states with unrestricted pot access (including young people) and nuisance public consumption.
Legalizing weed recreationally is purely a profit grab by corporate dispensaries. The entire effort was led by TruLieve, NOT (as the ads would have you believe) by Law Enforcement, or innocent old ladies, or even a bunch of outraged hippies. The ads supporting Yes on Amendment are SOOO deceptive.
If you want legal, regulated weed in FL, you can get it no problem. And if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Voting NO to Amendment 3 will protect sensible cannabis use and squash this deceptive corporate greed.
Be Careful What You Wish For
October 9, 2024 at 9:46 am
All other recreational states allow patients to grow their own which has not been problematic. The problems you list are extremely exaggerated. There is no scaling up in Florida for competition due to the way the laws were written by the insiders who do not want anyone to grow other than themselves. This has turned into an indoor industrial warehouse farming process which creates FIFTY TIMES the carbon footprint of outdoors. Dispensaries are already struggling with mold and bugs at their grows and they want to expand? There have already been products recalled. Patients should have a right to grow their own, so they can be confident knowing nothing toxic was sprayed on their plant.
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