Jacob Ogles
A Florida-based polling firm finds support for ballot initiatives on abortion and marijuana both under the necessary 60% threshold to pass. But Victory Insights pollsters say both measures still have paths to victory.
The Republican-led firm, which has an office in Naples, found more than 54% of likely voters in Florida intend to support Amendment 3, which would legalize recreational pot use by adults. Meanwhile, 29% intend to vote down the measure. Constitutional amendments must reach 60% support to pass and become part of the state constitution.
But in a polling memo, senior pollster Ben Galbraith said the critical number in the survey may be those still in the undecided column. Almost 17% of respondents have yet to make up their minds.
“Though support for Amendment 3 still lags behind the 60% threshold, it’s clear that voters heavily favor it,” Galbraith wrote. He goes on to say supporters have “ample opportunity to pick up the remaining 6% support needed to pass the measure.”
Pollsters report a 4.4-percentage-point margin of error.
Support appears more dicey for Amendment 4, which would reverse Florida’s strict restrictions on abortion passed after the overturning of Roe v. Wade. Just shy of 50% of voters say they intend to vote for the measure, according to the poll. Just over 29% say they are firmly against the amendment.
“This is lower than the support for Amendment 3, and well below the 60% threshold needed to pass,” Galbreath wrote, “but it’s important to note that more than 1 in 5 voters remain undecided, providing ample opportunity for the amendment to pick up another (about) 10% support in order to reach the threshold.”
About 72% of Democrats surveyed support the recreational pot measure. An even higher percentage of Democrats, about 76%, support reversing Florida’s abortion restrictions.
But 48% of Republicans oppose the abortion measure and just 23% support it, significantly hindering the path to 60% of the overall vote. In contrast, 43% of Republicans oppose recreational pot, but 39% support the measure.
Both amendments enjoy about 57% support now from voters belonging to neither major party.
2 comments
Cheesy Floridian
September 30, 2024 at 1:01 pm
First things first, the poll was done by a republican led firm.
2nd, who did they speak to regarding these amendments? It’s telling because a lot of other polls from different firms say that both Amendments, especially the abortion one, are closer to 60%. I really feel that with how DeSantis has been pushing the state to the right, a lot of people are going to come out in support for both of these amendments.
cassandra was right
September 30, 2024 at 1:40 pm
Who did they ask? What exactly did they ask? The poll isn’t up on their website.
Republican pollster doing DeSantis a favor. (They don’t want the Ron retaliation!) But they made sure to record enough undecideds to protect their reputation when Amendment 4 wins!
Abortion rights amendments have passed in EVERY STATE that has voted on them!
AMENDMENT 4 WILL PASS in Florida!
YES on 4
YES on 3