Sunburn — The morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics — 10.21.24

Good Monday morning.

Anna DeCerchio is bringing her key insights into the inner workings of state government to The Southern Group team.

DeCerchio began her career in government affairs in the Florida Legislature, where she worked as Speaker Paul Renner’s first legislative aide, guiding his policy and budget priorities through the legislative process.

“I have known Anna since she was a legislative aide in the Florida House, where she quickly rose into leadership roles in the executive branch,” said House Appropriations Chair Tom Leek. “Her ability to effectively navigate the legislative process and executive agencies, build consensus among stakeholders and identify solutions will make her an incredible asset to The Southern Group.”

DeCerchio’s success in the Legislature quickly propelled her to the Executive Office of the Governor (EOG), where she became a key player in Gov. Ron DeSantis’ administration. DeCerchio first served as Deputy Policy Director, working closely with the Office of Policy and Budget to help develop many of the administration’s policy and budget initiatives there.

She later became a Deputy Chief of Staff in the EOG, where she served as a senior adviser providing strategic policy direction to various state entities and agencies, including the Department of Transportation, the Department of Environmental Protection, the Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission, and the Department of Management Services.

“Anna is a strong leader and strategist, bringing years of government experience to the table,” said James Uthmeier, DeSantis’ Chief of Staff. “Since Day One of this administration, Anna has worked in the highest levels of the executive branch to advance Gov. DeSantis’ bold agenda effectively. Her ability to master complex issues of law and policy and work with a team to solve difficult problems will make her an asset to the team at The Southern Group.”

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The Florida Chamber of Commerce’s Future of Florida Forum and Annual Meeting kicks off today in Orlando.

The Chamber’s marquee annual event will bring dozens of thought leaders to The City Beautiful to discuss the state’s changing economics, demographics, and politics and how they all challenge and create opportunities for the Chamber’s goal of growing Florida to a Top 10 global economy by 2030.

The speaker lineup includes several agency heads and elected officials, including FloridaCommerce Secretary J. Alex Kelly, FDOT Secretary Jared Perdue, State University System of Florida Chancellor Ray Rodrigues, CareerSource Florida President & CEO Adrienne Johnston, CFO Jimmy Patronis, House Speaker Paul Renner. They’re joined on the agenda by nearly 50 other industry leaders, lawmakers, workforce, education, and community advocates from across Florida.

The Chamber also touts F3 as one of the best networking opportunities: “Picture yourself surrounded by a dynamic community of like-minded visionary business leaders, all driven by a common mission — to catapult Florida’s businesses, residents and economy to new heights! This is your exclusive invitation to become a driving force behind Florida’s success story.”

Today’s programming will tackle several major policy areas, including child care, early childhood education, workforce development and infrastructure needs. The entire F3 Agenda is available online.

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Today marks the 12th anniversary of Steve Madden’s passing. He was 43.

Steve is missed and so fondly remembered.

Give a hug this morning, tell an off-color story at lunch, and raise a glass to Madden this afternoon.

Make someone else laugh until they cry.

Carrie and Steve’s children, Callen and JR, are beautiful; they are doing well and growing up just fine.

To Madden …

— SITUATIONAL AWARENESS —

Tweet, tweet:

—@JRPasaki: Well, now we can’t even enjoy Arnold Palmers (as in iced tea and lemonade) anymore …

Tweet, tweet:

—@KevinCate: Locking down the geese vote in the home stretch. Genius at work

—@EWErickson: The people who believed Michele Obama would be the Dem nominee, then believed Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce would get engaged at the Super Bowl, then believed the government steered a hurricane to Florida, and now believe Dominion voting machines in Georgia are changing votes.

Tweet, tweet:

Tweet, tweet:

—@XEng: Today, block can be used by users to share and hide harmful or private information about those they’ve blocked. Users will be able to see if such behavior occurs with this update, allowing for greater transparency.

— DAYS UNTIL —

Kamala Harris’ CNN town hall in Pennsylvania — 2; second season of ‘Lioness’ premieres — 6; Florida TaxWatch’s 45th Annual Meeting – 9; 2024 Presidential Election – 15; second half of Yellowstone season five premieres – 16; USF stadium groundbreaking — 18; Taylor Sheridan’s ‘Landman’ premieres – 25; ‘Dune: Prophecy’ premieres on HBO — 27; News Service of Florida’s Above & Beyond Awards, honoring women in government and public service — 29; Legislature’s 2025 Organizational Session – 31; Las Vegas Grand Prix – 31; ‘Moana 2’ premieres – 37; ‘Chef’s Table’ returns to Netflix — 37; 2024 Florida Chamber Annual Insurance Summit begins – 43; Florida Chamber 2024 Florida Transportation, Growth & Infrastructure Solution Summit — 43; MLS Cup 2024 – 47; Army-Navy game — 54; ‘Mufasa: The Lion King’ premieres – 60; College Football Playoff begins – 62; ‘Squid Game’ season 2 premieres – 66; Fiesta, Peach, Rose & Sugar Bowls – 72; Orange Bowl – 80; ‘Severance’ season two debuts – 95; Super Bowl LIX — 111; ‘Captain America: Brave New World’ premieres – 123; the 2025 Oscars – 132; Florida’s 2025 Legislative Session begins – 134; Tampa Bay Rays season opener — 157; 2025 Session ends – 193; ‘Thunderbolts’ premieres – 193; Epic Universe grand opening — 213; ‘Karate Kid: Legends’ premieres — 221; ‘Fantastic Four – First Steps’ premieres – 277; ‘Blade’ reboot premieres – 387; ‘Avatar: Fire and Ash’ premieres – 424; ‘Avengers 5’ premieres – 561; Untitled ‘Star Wars’ movie premieres – 578; FIFA World Cup 26™ final – 599; FIFA World Cup 26™ final match – 637; ‘The Batman 2’ premieres – 716; Another untitled ‘Star Wars’ movie premieres – 789; ‘Avengers: Secret Wars’ premieres – 929; 2028 Los Angeles Olympics Opening Ceremony — 1,362; ‘Avatar 4’ premieres – 1,888; ‘Avatar 5’ premieres – 2,609.

— TOP STORY —

“Rick Scott and Ron DeSantis’ quiet feud over Florida’s hurricanes” via Gary Fineout and Kimberly Leonard of POLITICO — While neither has directly criticized the other by name, Tallahassee insiders, including those with ties to the two Republicans, have noticed the subtle jabs each has taken as the state rebuilds.

There’s no escaping who was the Governor 10 years ago: Scott, who also feuded with then-Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum over the slow pace of power restoration in the state capital following Hurricane Hermine in 2016.

One of DeSantis’ top aides posted on social media two days after Hurricane Milton hit: “Do people not realize or remember how long power restoration took before Gov. DeSantis got into office?”

Scott, meanwhile, said during an interview with a Tampa radio host Thursday that it “took a ridiculous amount of time” to remedy the gas shortages that gripped the Tampa Bay region after Hurricane Milton. Last weekend, in response to fuel shortages, the DeSantis administration gave up to 10 gallons of free gas at sites set up in several counties.

This year, it hasn’t been just one-off quips between the two. As DeSantis held news conferences on storm preparations and recovery for the last three weeks, so did Scott — just somewhere else. The former Governor, wearing his trademark Navy hat, appeared with local leaders and other members of Congress.

Each has also tried to take credit for pushing policies that led to speedy recoveries in the state. DeSantis said during a news conference in Fort Pierce after Milton, “We never did the pre-staging of power assets until I became Governor. Now people expect that, but that wasn’t what was done in the past.”

Not so, Scott argued. In a social media post two days after Milton roared onshore, he noted that utility companies had “pre-staged tens of thousands of lineworkers, trucks and assets” during Hurricanes Irma and Michael.

— RESPONSE —

“St. Pete starts insurance process for Hurricane Milton-ravaged Tropicana Field” via Henry Queen of the Tampa Bay Business Journal — St. Petersburg has submitted a claim with its insurance carrier on the city-owned Tropicana Field, which Milton damaged considerably. The cost and timeline of replacing the roof — which was torn off by Milton’s 100 mph winds — are uncertain. National baseball analyst Jim Bowden suggested a new roof would cost upward of $100 million. The Tampa Bay Times reported that “the only thing that seems certain” is that the stadium won’t be ready for the start of the Tampa Bay Rays’ 2025 season. St. Pete’s insurance adjuster has performed an initial on-site inspection. The city also recently hired Hennessy Construction Services and AECOM Hunt to conduct a complete building analysis — structural, mechanical, electrical, plumbing and architectural — and has retained Global Rope Access to remove the remaining roof material.

“Best guess if insurance is insufficient at the Trop? The Orlando Rays” via John Romano of the Tampa Bay Times — Have we seen the last ballgame at the Trop? Nothing has been decided, but the future is bleak. The damage wrought by Hurricane Milton is significant, and the cost to repair a stadium already slated for demolition by 2028 may prove to be immense. Engineers, architects, contractors, adjusters, and consultants will weigh in in the coming days, and attorneys will likely have their say, too. Eventually, the decision will come down to this: How much will it cost to repair, how much is insurance kicking in, and how much can the city of St. Petersburg afford, considering all the other expenses incurred following back-to-back hurricanes? Considering the deductible and their expenses elsewhere, it doesn’t seem likely the city would choose to repair the stadium if the bill exceeded $47 million, leaving St. Pete on the hook for additional costs.

“It could take Volusia County until the year’s end to clear Hurricane Milton debris” via Sheldon Gardner of the Daytona Beach News-Journal — One of the most visible reminders of Hurricane Milton’s wrath is the storm debris piled up at curbs around the county ― and it’s likely to hang around for a while. In the wake of Hurricanes Helene and Milton, many debris haulers are already at work in North Carolina, Georgia and Florida. So, Volusia County government officials are using their forces to help contractors clear debris in the unincorporated areas and along county-maintained roads, county spokesperson Michael Ryan said. “Because of this shortage of resources and the sheer volume of debris, it could take until the end of the year,” he said.

— 2024 — PRESIDENTIAL —

“Donald Trump attempts to troll Kamala Harris by serving french fries at a Pennsylvania McDonald’s” via Henry J. Gomez and Jake Traylor of NBC News — Trump served up french fries Sunday at a Philadelphia-area McDonald’s, oversalting spuds and peppering in some jabs at Harris. The franchise in Feasterville was closed for regular business during Sunday’s photo op. The customers who went through the drive-thru were preselected by the franchise and the local Trump campaign team, according to a person familiar with the event. According to the source, the cars were also screened and searched, and the people were wanded down. The campaign visit in the critical battleground state just over two weeks from Election Day was designed to troll Harris, who talked about working at one of the fast-food chain’s restaurants when she was younger. Without evidence, Trump has accused Harris of lying about the experience to improve her working-class credibility. Trump repeated his unsubstantiated claims Sunday.

“The voter gender gap is growing, and Harris’ abortion rights campaign could make it even wider” via Elena Schneider and Myah Ward of POLITICO — When one of Harris’ pollsters asked a small group of women in a focus group in February to describe Trump’s position on abortion, most said they thought he was “pro-choice.” But then the pollster, working for Harris and President Joe Biden when he was still atop the ticket, played a clip of Trump saying “there should be some form of punishment” for women who have an abortion. The response in the room was visceral. “That felt like a dagger,” one of the women said. To Molly Murphy, the pollster who led the focus group of undecided voters, the scene was strikingly familiar to what she saw in the aftermath of Roe v. Wade‘s overturning in June 2022. Women, upon discovering how Republicans talked about abortion, largely recoiled. The issue powered Democrats to a better-than-expected showing in the midterms in 2022. Harris is banking on Trump’s position on abortion to persuade women to push the gender gap in the election even wider.

“Harris’ innovative media strategy shouldn’t end on Election Day” via Jennifer Rubin of The Washington Post — Over the past two weeks, Harris has redefined presidential campaign media strategy. She has forced large media organizations to pay attention to under-covered topics, broadened the range of outlets to discuss substantive policy ideas, and helped crystallize Fox News’s status as a purely partisan platform, not a news organization. You may have noticed that mainstream cable TV news, print and online outlets have dramatically increased the number and depth of stories focused on Trump’s mental deterioration and authoritarian politics. So, what triggered the intensifying coverage? Harris. Harris routinely describes her opponent as “unsteady” and “unstable.” Rather than hector the media for not doing a better job, Harris simply compelled the major outlets covering her appearances to cover what she wanted to discuss: Trump’s unfitness.

“Inside Trump’s sleepless, exhausting mad dash to Election Day” via Marc A. Caputo of The Bulwark — In the 18 days since the beginning of October, Trump has held at least 28 in-person public events in 25 cities spread across 12 states on both coasts, according to a review of his public schedule and press accounts. And because Trump also likes to sleep in his own bed (usually in Mar-a-Lago), the campaign often flies in and out in a day and seldom spends 48 hours away from Florida. That adds extra sleepless hours on the campaign trail. So, too, does Trump’s penchant for calling confidants or posting on Truth Social well after midnight. But the high-octane, no-sleep-till-Election-Day pace has come at a cost for the 78-year-old Trump.

—“24 reasons that Trump could win” via Nate Silver of the Silver Bulletin

—”The very real scenario where Trump loses and takes power anyway” via Kyle Cheney, Heidi Przybyla, John Sakellariadis and Lisa Kashinsky of POLITICO

“Pro-Trump group funded by Elon Musk struggles with outreach targets” via Rachael Levy and Alexandra Ulmer of Reuters — The political action committee funded by billionaire Musk to help re-elect Trump is struggling in some swing states to meet door knocking goals and is investigating claims that some canvassers lied about the number of voters they have contacted, according to people involved in the group’s efforts. The difficulties, in pivotal battleground states including Wisconsin and Nevada, come as the group America PAC races to enlist voters behind the Republican candidate in the final two weeks before the Nov. 5 election. Four people involved in the group’s outreach told Reuters that managers warned canvassers they are missing targets and needed to raise the number of would-be voters they contact.

“Musk’s daily $1 million giveaway to registered voters could be illegal, experts say” via Marshall Cohen of CNN — While stumping for Trump, Musk announced that he will give away $1 million each day to registered voters in battleground states, immediately drawing scrutiny from election law experts who said the sweepstakes could violate laws against paying people to register. “We want to try to get over a million, maybe 2 million voters in the battleground states to sign the petition in support of the First and Second Amendment. … We are going to be awarding $1 million randomly to people who have signed the petition, every day, from now until the election,” Musk said. He was referring to a petition launched by his political action committee affirming support for the rights to free speech and to bear arms. The website, launched shortly before some registration deadlines, says, “this program is exclusively open to registered voters in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin and North Carolina.” Musk speaks as Trump looks on during a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, on Oct. 5, 2024. Musk, the richest man in the world, has given more than $75 million to his pro-Trump super PAC

“How Republican billionaires learned to love Trump again” via Susan B. Glasser of The New Yorker — In February, the billionaire investor Nelson Peltz convened two dozen of the country’s wealthiest Republicans for dinner at Montsorrel, his $300-million oceanfront estate in Palm Beach, just down the road from Mar-a-Lago. During the 2020 campaign, Peltz hosted a lavish fundraiser for Trump at the mansion, which took in $10 million. But, in the aftermath of the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol, Peltz, like many Republicans of all income levels, had publicly denounced the President. In an interview with CNBC on Jan. 7, he apologized for his vote and said that Trump would always be remembered for that day’s “disgrace.” “As an American,” he added, “I’m embarrassed.”

“How tech billionaires became the GOP’s new donor class” via Jonathan Mahler, Ryan Mac and Theodore Schleifer of The New York Times — Throughout this election cycle, a group of these men have coalesced around a new mission: putting Trump back in the White House. They are the Republican Party’s ascendant donor class and operate on a very different plane from the donors who preceded them. They have a seemingly limitless amount of money to help make this vision a reality and their own media profiles and platforms to use. They are the opposite of private, dark-money donors, who publicly support Trump and sometimes announce their donations on social media. It’s an ambitious and highly motivated group, powered by self-interest and self-regard.

“Trump fixates on Arnold Palmer as ‘all man’ in showers during profane rally” via Marianne LeVine and Isaac Arnsdorf of The Washington Post — Seventeen days from the election, here in arguably the most decisive swing state, Trump spent the first 10 minutes of his speech without mentioning politics. Instead, he delivered a lengthy tribute to Palmer, the late golfer born here and the airport’s namesake where Trump spoke. Trump’s soliloquy about Palmer included how other athletes reacted to seeing him in the showers. “Arnold Palmer was all man. And I say that in all due respect to women and I love women. But this guy, this guy, this is a guy that was all man. This man was strong and tough. And I refused to say it, but when he took showers with the other pros, they came out of there, they said, ‘Oh my God, that’s unbelievable,’” Trump said.

“Harris says Trump’s behavior ‘demeans’ the presidency after vulgar remarks” via Katie Rogers of The New York Times — In an interview on Sunday with the Rev. Al Sharpton, Harris responded to a profanity-laden insult that Trump used about her tenure as Vice President, saying he had “not earned the right” to hold office again. “The American people deserve so much better,” she told Sharpton on his show. She later added, “Donald Trump should never again stand behind the seal of the President of the United States. He has not earned the right. He has not earned the right. And that’s why he’s going to lose.” Sharpton had asked her to react to “street talk from someone who wants to be President,” referring to a rally Trump held in Pennsylvania a day earlier. After he descended to new levels of vulgarity with remarks about the late golfer Palmer, Trump encouraged his audience to yell profane words to describe the Biden-Harris administration and added his own.

“A tattooed union leader is threatening to topple a Republican Senator in a deep-red state” via Kristina Peterson and Anthony DeBarros of The Wall Street Journal — Dan Osborn was campaigning for a U.S. Senate seat last week when he jumped onto the back of a white pickup parked outside a labor hall, a buck knife holstered on his hip and a tattoo sleeve running down his right arm. What began as his long shot bid to unseat two-term Republican Sen. Deb Fischer has become a tight race in deep-red Nebraska, a state that Trump won by 19 percentage points in 2020. Between swigs from a green Gatorade water bottle, the 49-year-old former union leader and political independent reminisced to a crowd north of 150 people about his role in running the 2021 strike at Kellogg’s Omaha plant. Standing by his side was United Auto Workers President Shawn Fain, who led a historic strike that won significant wage increases for autoworkers last year. “I didn’t see men or women or Black or White or Republican or Democrat on the picket line,” Osborn said. “I just saw people that wanted to go to work for a fair wage and some good benefits.”

— 2024 — FLORIDA —

Scott launches new Creole ad in South Florida — Scott is running a new radio ad in Creole for the Miami, Broward, and Palm Beach markets featuring former Florida Democrat Senate candidate Dr. Rod Joseph. In the ad, Joseph explains why today’s Democrat Party does not align with the values of Florida’s Haitian community. He also explains why he left the Democrat Party and endorsed Scott for re-election.

To listen to the ad, please click the image below:

“Colorado Gov. Jared Polis stumps for Harris in South Florida” via Drew Dixon of Florida Politics — The Democratic leader from the Rocky Mountain State headlined the “Out for Harris” effort in South Florida for the weekend. Polis joined Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried and HD 106 candidate Joe Saunders to rally LGBTQ+ voters in Miami. They discussed Harris’ campaign objectives and her vice-presidential candidate, Tim Walz. The South Florida effort also juxtaposed the Democratic message with Trump’s and the arch-conservative plan, the so-called 2025 Project. “I was thrilled to join energized Floridians working to help elect Kamala Harris as our next President of the United States. Florida and Colorado are voting for Kamala on Nov. 5 because we know she has our back, she will defend our freedom, expand opportunity for all and save people money,” said Polis in a news release.

“‘It’s time’: Gordon Smith after years enforcing weed laws urges legalizing recreation pot” via Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics — The Bradford County Sheriff grabbed attention when he publicly endorsed legalizing marijuana. He went a step further and cut an ad urging voters to pass an amendment decriminalizing pot for adult use. “No one has arrested more people for marijuana than me,” Smith said in a new Smart & Safe Florida ad, “so when I say it’s time to stop ruining lives over marijuana, it’s time.” In the 30-second ad, Smith asserts the current system destroys too many people’s lives by bringing consequences for using marijuana.

To watch the ad, please click the image below:

“DeSantis battles his onetime top ally in a bid to stop marijuana legalization in Florida” via Matt Dixon and Allan Smith of NBC News — The last time DeSantis fought Trump, he had one of the most influential operatives in Republican politics punching alongside him. But now, as Trump lines up against DeSantis in a battle over a high-profile ballot initiative to legalize marijuana in Florida, the Governor’s old ally, Jeff Roe, is working against him. The renowned GOP operative, whose reputation is built on a one-stop political firm that brings in tens of millions of dollars for each election cycle, once led Never Back Down, a super PAC that backed DeSantis’ Presidential Primary campaign. The relationship, however, soured after DeSantis’ presidential ambitions went up in flames. Now, roughly a year after that blowup, Roe is on the verge of potentially getting the 60% voter approval needed to add the legalization of recreational marijuana to the Florida constitution, something DeSantis has forcefully opposed and spent significant sums of money.

—“Smoke shops sprout like weeds in Florida. You’ll be surprised at what one owner says about marijuana legalization bill.” via Rob Hurtibise of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel

“Fact or fiction? Critics say Amendment 3 will make Florida smell like weed” via Claire Healy of the Miami Herald — As voters decide whether to legalize recreational marijuana in Florida this November, DeSantis and opponents of Amendment 3 are focusing on a specific concern: the smell. “It’s basically a license to have it anywhere you want,” DeSantis said. “This state will start to smell like marijuana in our cities and towns. It will reduce the quality of life.” It’s an appeal to Floridians’ senses. Pushed not only by the Governor but also by the Florida Chamber of Commerce and the official campaign against the amendment — Vote No on 3 — the warning is predicated on two claims. First, the language of the amendment prevents laws that restrict outdoor use and that states with recreational cannabis have already been overwhelmed. In commercials produced by the Vote No on 3 campaign, speakers claiming to be from Colorado and California — states with legal markets — say they’re fed up. “I’m at the park with my and they’re like, ‘Mommy, what’s that smell?’” a woman says into the camera. “California has gone to s–t.” Only proponents of Amendment 3 say it will be easy to regulate in Florida.

Happening Wednesday — Smart & Safe Florida will make a campaign announcement alongside the American Association of Senior Citizens, Florida Alliance for Retired Americans and Florida For Care: 11 a.m., Brownwood Hotel, 3003 Brownwood Blvd., The Villages. RSVP to Morgan Hill at [email protected] or (501) 454-2711.

“DeSantis calls Amendment 4 ‘too extreme,’ would ‘undermine the foundation of parental rights’” via Amber Jo Cooper of Florida’s Voice — DeSantis reiterated his stance on pro-abortion Amendment 4 after a new ad showed a doctor advocating for Floridians to vote “no” on the issue in November’s election. The amendment, sponsored by Floridians Protecting Freedom, would enshrine abortion into the state’s constitution. It would allow for the practice to be done up until the point of “viability,” which the Governor previously said is a non-definable time in the pregnancy that abortion providers can easily abuse. The Governor said Florida has “the strongest protections for parents’ rights, but Amendment 4 would change that.” He noted that he previously signed legislation to “defend the rights of mothers and fathers to be involved in medical decisions concerning their own children.”

“Woman featured in abortion rights ad speaks out after state tried to get it off the air” via Gabrielle Russon of Florida Politics — The woman, known only as Caroline, was thrust into a First Amendment legal fight with the state over a pro-abortion rights political ad spoke to reporters. Caroline shared her story about having an abortion in 2022 during her second trimester after she was diagnosed with terminal brain cancer. “All I wanted to do was leave the Neuro-ICU and go home to my almost 2-year-old girl,” Caroline said. “It was the hardest decision that I have ever made in my life, but I chose to end my pregnancy and prepare for radiation that next day. My abortion allowed me more time to be a mother to my daughter and a wife to my husband.”

“As Floridians vote on abortion rights, opponents plan court battle to void results” via Skyler Swisher and Jeffrey Schweers of the Orlando Sentinel — Abortion rights advocates spent months and millions of dollars gathering petition signatures so Florida voters could decide if they want abortion to be protected now that Roe v. Wade has been overturned. They got the measure on the Nov. 5 ballot, and hundreds of thousands of Floridians voting by mail already have said yes or no to Amendment 4, the abortion question. But an eleventh-hour lawsuit filed Wednesday by anti-abortion opponents threatens to derail their efforts. The lawsuit, heavily based on a report from DeSantis’ administration and pushed by his allies, alleges “widespread fraud” in the abortion petition drive and seeks to strike Amendment 4 from the ballot — or nullify any election results. After so much effort and time, could Amendment 4 really go by the wayside, regardless of what the voters want? It seems at least possible, a suggestion that deepens the extraordinary political and legal morass into which the abortion rights measure has been cast.

— 2024 — DOWN-BALLOT 1 —

“Thomas Chalifoux still holds cash edge on Darren Soto, but only through self-funding” via Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics — The only Democrat in the delegation targeted by the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) trails his opponent in cash on hand. U.S. Rep. Soto closed the third quarter with about $506,000 available compared to nearly $1.8 million for Chalifoux. But that’s primarily because of the challenger’s out-of-pocket contributions. Chalifoux’s campaign has reported more than $2.5 million in candidate loans. Soto raised almost $506,000 in donations last quarter, while Chalifoux reported about $27,000 in outside contributions during the same period. In his August-September report, Chalifoux reported putting another $517,000 in loans into his coffers, signaling a willingness to spend what it takes out-of-pocket to win the race.

“House rating analysis bumps CD 13 from ‘leans’ GOP to ‘tilt’ in good news for Dem challenger Whitney Fox” via Janelle Irwin Taylor of Florida Politics — A relatively new political analysis site, CNalysis, has shifted its forecast in the 2024 race for Florida’s 13th Congressional District from “leans” Republican to “tilt” Republican, an improvement for Democratic candidate Fox who is challenging incumbent Republican Anna Paulina Luna. The shift was one of a handful the outlet made earlier this week, including races in Alabama, Alaska, California, New York and Pennsylvania. The site now gives Luna a 6 in 10 chance of winning re-election over Fox. The shift puts CD 13 in CNalysis’ list of most competitive races and aligns with recent trends in the race that have shifted in Fox’s favor while still giving Luna the edge.

— 2024 — DOWN-BALLOT 2 —

“GOP support for indicted Carolina Amesty may be waning in tight Orlando-area race” via Annie Martin of the Orlando Sentinel — Former Disney executive and political newcomer Leonard Spencer is challenging Rep. Amesty, a former up-and-comer facing criminal charges. Amesty, a first-term Republican house member, is coming off an indictment on four felony charges related to the alleged forgery of a man’s signature on an employment form she notarized as an administrator for her family’s small school. Two years ago, her campaign made a splash as Amesty lent $200,000 to her own war chest, drew an endorsement from Donald Trump Jr., and touted her experience as a vice president for Central Christian University and an entrepreneur who ran a successful chicken restaurant. This year, her campaign has been noticeably quieter.

— STATEWIDE —

“Another conviction in Florida’s ghost candidate scandal, but the Senators who benefited remain in office” via Scott Maxwell of the Orlando Sentinel — Former GOP State Sen. Frank Artiles became the fifth person to either be convicted or plead out to crimes in a statewide scandal that was exposed by Florida news outlets back when state officials were twiddling their thumbs. Yet the Senators who benefited from this criminal scheme remain in office. So, what kind of justice is that? Republican State Sens. Jason Brodeur of Seminole County and Ileana Garcia of Miami are still in office, making laws — even though multiple people broke laws to help get them there. South Florida Democrat José Javier Rodríguez described the convictions as “a measure of justice.” I think that’s exactly right. It’s only “a measure” because the people who benefited from the crimes still enjoy the spoils.

“C student? Middling marks for DeSantis fiscal policy from libertarian Cato Institute” via A.G. Gancarski of Florida Politics — DeSantis’ storied Free State of Florida falls in the middle of the pack regarding fiscal policy. And tax gimmicks are the reason why, claims libertarian think tank The Cato Institute, giving the Sunshine State’s chief executive a Gentleman’s C. Temporary tax breaks strike the scholars as performative half-measures, essentially, despite Florida being the “second freest state” in its reckoning. “DeSantis approved a temporary reduction in the corporate tax rate and a bill to avoid business tax increases related to the federal Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. DeSantis has frequently signed legislation providing temporary tax breaks, including annual sales tax holidays, rebates, a gas tax suspension and similar breaks. Using budget surpluses for temporary tax breaks has reduced funds available for spending, but it would have been better to enact permanent tax reforms.”

— D.C. MATTERS —

“The U.S. is investigating an unauthorized release of classified documents on Israel’s attack plans” via Zeke Miller, Mike Balsamo, Eric Tucker, and Tara Copp of The Associated Press — The United States is investigating an unauthorized release of classified documents that assess Israel’s plans to attack Iran. A fourth U.S. official said the documents appear to be legitimate. The documents are attributed to the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency and National Security Agency and note that Israel was still moving military assets in place to conduct a military strike in response to Iran’s blistering ballistic missile attack on Oct. 1. They were shareable within the “Five Eyes,” which are the U.S., Great Britain, Canada, New Zealand and Australia.

“Sen. Lindsey Graham on Republicans supporting Harris: ‘What the hell are you doing?” via Sarah Fortinsky of The Hill — Sen. Graham on Sunday questioned Republicans who take issue with Trump’s “rhetoric” and have decided to back Harris’ bid instead. “To every Republican supporting her, what the hell are you doing? You’re supporting the most radical nominee in the history of American politics,” Graham said,” naming progressive policies the Vice President once backed — including “Medicare for All” and the Green New Deal. Graham called Harris the “border czar” and referred to the Vice President’s previous statement touting that she was the last person in the room with Biden before he decided to withdraw from Afghanistan. He also noted she cast the tiebreaking vote on the Inflation Reduction Act.

Happening today — U.S. Reps. Carlos Giménez and Maria Elvira Salazar will hold a news conference with Honduran opposition political leaders and the Honduran community: 1 p.m., Salazar’s Miami District Office, 5725 SW 8th St., Suite 200, Miami. RSVP to [email protected] or [email protected].

— LOCAL: S. FL —

Happening today — Mayor Daniella Levine Cava kicks off early voting in Miami-Dade joined by countywide candidates James Reyes, Miami-Dade Chief of Public Safety and candidate for Sheriff; J.C. Planas, Candidate for Supervisor of Elections; Annette Taddeo, candidate for Clerk of Courts and Comptroller; David Richardson, candidate for Tax Collector and Marisol Zenteno, candidate for Property Appraiser: 10 a.m., Coral Gables Branch Library, 3443 Segovia Street, Coral Gables.

“These Parkland shooting survivors were promised visas. They’re still waiting.” via Deborah Sontag of The New York Times — On Valentine’s Day 2018, Bruna Oliveira’s geography teacher was shot dead at her feet as he ushered students into his classroom to shield them from an approaching gunman. When the massacre at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland occurred, Oliveira’s Brazilian family was living temporarily in the United States with no intention of staying. Advised that the government offers a special visa to victims of serious crime who are helpful to law enforcement, Oliveira and 74 other survivors of the massacre applied for what is known as a U visa. Little did they know then that the well-intentioned U visa program is among the most dysfunctional in the whole troubled immigration apparatus, with benefits far more delayed than those of the notoriously backlogged asylum program.

“Big changes coming as Jupiter, Boca Raton voters get ready to choose new School Board members” via Katherine Kokal of the Palm Beach Post — Voters in the Jupiter and the Boca Raton areas will choose School Board members this Election Day. Those two candidates will join one already declared winner to fuel the most significant turnover on Palm Beach County’s School Board in recent memory. Three incumbent Board members chose not to seek re-election this year, leaving the races open for new interest. In Jupiter, a three-candidate Primary in August produced two finalists when no one garnered 50% or more of the vote. Family lawyer Matthew Lane will face Page Lewis, a literacy coach, in the race for the Jupiter and Palm Beach Gardens area seat previously held by Barbara McQuinn.

“‘You need boots to live here or a boat’: King tides are swamping Miami streets again” via Alex Harris of the Miami Herald — Water bubbled up from the asphalt on a bayfront street in Miami Shores. It surged up through a drain, covering the entire street in just a few hours despite a perfectly clear sky. Saturday marked the peak of this season’s king tide, the year’s highest tide. Salty water crept into streets and yards across South Florida and along the East Coast, offering a glimpse of a near future with a higher sea level. Rigobert Merisier’s usual parking spot — above a street drain — was covered with a few inches of water when he returned to the grocery store Saturday morning. Merisier said he’s fed up with the flooding and rising living costs in his neighborhood. A condemned home at the end of the block, closer to the water, is for sale for more than $2 million. “We’re looking to get out of Miami altogether,” he said.

— LOCAL: C. FL —

“Kissimmee deputy police chief faced firing for homophobic remark about lesbian officer” via Cristóbal Reyes of the Orlando Sentinel — A Kissimmee deputy police chief who decided to retire last month was facing termination for making a homophobic remark about a female officer seeking a promotion. And it wasn’t the first time Camille Alicea, considered a trailblazer among Hispanics in Central Florida’s law enforcement community, was accused of making homophobic comments. But records provided to the Sentinel this week in response to a public records request offer no indication she was previously investigated or disciplined for allegedly doing so. That changed earlier this year, after Alicea was accused of suggesting a fellow officer was being promoted “because she is a lesbian female.” Alicea was suspended, and an investigation corroborated the accusation.

“Marion County voters to consider half-cent sales tax for school construction, improvements” via Austin L. Miller of the Ocala Star-Banner — People already are returning mail ballots and early voting starts Oct. 21. One of the questions on the Nov. 5 General Election ballot concerns schools: a proposed half-cent sales tax that would last for 10 years. The tax revenue would help the School District build, replace and improve school infrastructure. There are 50 schools in the School District. (That does not include charter or private schools.) The 50 schools serve more than 46,000 students and have a combined budget of $1.3 billion. According to the Ocala Metro Chamber & Economic Partnership (CEP), school enrollment has increased by more than 11% in the past five years.

“In Polk Election Supervisor race, well-funded Melony Bell takes on incumbent Lori Edwards” via Gary White of The Lakeland Ledger — As a three-term incumbent, Rep. Bell could have felt confident of winning a fourth and final term in the Florida House. Instead, Bell decided to challenge one of the longest-serving elected officials in Polk County. Bell is taking on Polk Supervisor of Elections Edwards, who has served since 2001 and hopes to win a seventh term. The race abounds with intriguing elements. For the first time since 1996, the Supervisor of Elections race is a partisan contest, and Bell has gained endorsements from prominent Republicans. While Edwards has the advantages of incumbency and high name recognition, Bell is also well known, having served as a Polk County Commissioner for eight years before heading to Tallahassee. Bell has also compiled a substantial edge in campaign funding.

— LOCAL: TB —

“Man who vowed to ride out Florida hurricanes on his boat is arrested in Tampa” via The Associated Press — The man who gained social media fame with TikTok posts as he was riding out two hurricanes in his boat has been arrested in Tampa, Florida. Hillsborough County Sheriff’s Office arrest records show Joseph Malinowsky, 54, known as “Lt. Dan” after his TikTok posts, was arrested Friday for trespassing and failure to appear in court on previous charges of operating an unregistered vehicle and having no valid driver’s license. Malinowsky rejected pleas from officials to seek shelter and instead remained in his boat during Hurricanes Helene and Milton. Malinowsky, whose nickname comes from a character in the movie “Forrest Gump” who rides out a hurricane in a boat, remained jailed Saturday.

“Spectrum TV news outlets in Tampa and Orlando outperform other stations during Milton” via Drew Dixon of Florida Politics — When natural disasters, such as recent hurricanes, cause havoc in Florida communities; those are times when residents turn to broadcast news outlets often for the most up-to-date breaking bulletins to keep them informed and possibly save lives. Spectrum news outlets in both Tampa and Orlando appear to have come out on top compared to the competitors during Hurricane Milton when it slammed Florida first on the Gulf Coast on Oct. 9 and then roared through the interior of the state before it exited into the Atlantic Ocean through the Space Coast on Oct. 10. When the powerful hurricane first struck the West Coast of Florida, Spectrum Bay News 9 in Tampa saw the most viewers from Oct. 7 when the storm was bearing down on the state through Oct. 9 the day the storm plowed into the Gulf Coast.

“George Soros talk brings antisemitism charge in Hillsborough State Attorney race” via Dan Sullivan of the Tampa Bay Times — For as long as Andrew Warren has been part of local politics, he’s grappled with accusations that he received support from the liberal billionaire Soros. It’s been a common line of attack from Warren’s opponents but one he tends to ignore. Now, as he campaigns against Suzy Lopez in the November election, Warren has called out those criticisms as being antisemitic. In a post on X earlier this month, Warren accused Lopez of “false, antisemitic attacks.” Many Jewish people and researchers on hate and extremism consider attacks like this against Soros, who is Jewish and a proficient fundraiser, as an antisemitic dog whistle.

—”Money pours into Hillsborough state attorney campaigns. Here’s who’s giving.” via Dan Sullivan of the Tampa Bay Times

— LOCAL: N. FL —

“‘Easy as possible’: Elections Supervisor encourages people to vote early starting Monday” via Jeff Burlew of the Tallahassee Democrat — Leon County Supervisor of Elections Mark Earley is encouraging people to vote early in the Nov. 5 General Election. Early voting kicks off Monday, Oct. 21, and runs through Sunday, Nov. 3, at 10 different locations across the county. “I want every Leon County voter to have every opportunity to cast their ballot,” Earley said. “This is why we offer the maximum days of Early Voting allowed under Florida law. I encourage every voter to consider voting early as a way to make your voting experience as easy as possible.” The Elections Office noted that the benefits of early voting include shorter wait times, 320 combined hours of weekend voting availability, and the flexibility to cast a ballot at any of the early voting in Leon County.

“Donna Deegan says she did not intend to diminish Holocaust in using term ‘concentration camp’” via David Bauerlein of The Florida Times-Union — Deegan said she regrets using the term “concentration camp” in her opposition to Trump’s proposed deportation plan for undocumented immigrants. Her statement came after a host of local and state Republican officials called on her to apologize because of the connection that concentration camps have to the Nazi death camps that killed millions during World War II. “Anyone who knows me has listened to me speak or watched my actions knows I would never diminish the awfulness and horror that was the Holocaust,” she said in a statement. “That was not my intention. I regret that my choice of words may have caused anyone pain.”

— LOCAL: SW FL —

“Hurricane Milton an ‘epic tornado-maker.’ No injuries reported in Lee, Collier” via Chad Gillis of the Fort Myers News-Press — Meteorologists are still gathering data on several tornadoes that hit Florida during Hurricane Milton. One of the tornadoes touched down in North Fort Myers and destroyed or damaged about 200 homes along U.S. 41. Storm experts with the National Weather Service in Ruskin were in the Fort Myers area Friday assessing the damage. Still, the details ― such as top wind speed and distance traveled ― are not yet available. “They are likely going to add two, maybe three additional tornadoes (in their coverage area),” said NWS meteorologist Ali Davis out of Ruskin, the office that covers the Fort Myers-Lee County area. “Now they’re looking at whether or not this was a continuation or multiple tornadoes.” Davis said meteorologists are comparing images they captured during the storm to those seen at tornado sites.

— TOP OPINION —

“Yep, the media should cover Trump’s age more — and Joe Biden’s too” via Nate Silver of the Silver Bulletin. Progressives have recently pushed another issue of Trump’s age and cognitive fitness.

Philosophically, though, I support the effort to press the media on this story. Trump is 78 and is seeking the presidency until he’s 82. That’s way too old, given the demands of the job. Considering the long history of old Presidents seeking to hold on to power when they were clearly diminished — there were many such cases before Trump and Biden — we should probably just have a constitutional amendment that says a President can’t be older than 75 on Inauguration Day.

The problem is that if Trump assumes office again, he’ll be essentially the same age as Biden at the start of his term. (Trump would be 78 years and 220 days old on Inauguration Day; Biden was 78 years and 61 days old in 2021.) And there’s an extremely high overlap between people who critique the media for not covering Trump’s age enough and those who scold it for covering Biden’s age too much.

As someone who was an early and frequent critic of Biden’s decision to run for another term, I have no such risk of hypocrisy, so I say, go for it.

However, if the media should cover Trump’s age more, it should probably still cover Biden’s age more. He may not be a candidate for President anymore, but he’s the leader of the free world in a dangerous time facing multiple simultaneous crises from Ukraine to the Middle East. After the June debate, numerous accounts, even from friendly sources, indicated that Biden has limited uptime and is not consistently at his best.

Biden is keeping a very light public schedule. How effective is he at handling these, or if something even worse happens?

— OPINIONS —

“The questions Harris can’t answer” via Ramesh Ponnuru of The Washington Post — Why does Harris have so much trouble answering questions that are predictably coming her way, and even after multiple attempts? In her interview this week with Fox News anchor Bret Baier, she was evasive when asked about immigration, how she would govern differently from Biden and her perceptions of Biden’s fitness over time. She hasn’t offered explanations for her many flip-flops on the issues, either. The likeliest reason neither she nor her advisers have devised better answers is that there are no politically palatable ones. After immigration, Baier turned to Harris’ past support for taxpayer-funded sex-change surgeries for prisoners and detained immigrants who are in the country illegally. Now that she is in a General Election campaign where that stance is a liability, she wants to downplay it without angering progressives who regard such surgeries as a non-negotiable human right.

“Pity poor Renatha Francis and her terrible burden of always knowing what’s best” via Pat Beall of the Orlando Sentinel — Picked from judicial obscurity by DeSantis to sit on the Florida Supreme Court for no apparent reason at all, Francis’ lack of experience alone should have been disqualifying. A graduate of a for-profit law school that was eventually shuttered amid criticism of academic standards and federal loan management, Francis spent most of the next several years as a law clerk and appeals court staff attorney when Scott appointed her to a Miami-Dade County judgeship in 2017. She served only one year on the county bench before Scott elevated her to a Miami-Dade Circuit Court judgeship. She spent just one year there before DeSantis made her a Palm Beach County Circuit judge. She had been a judge for roughly four years when DeSantis first decided she had the experience and intellect to hold a state Supreme Court seat. Because she had not been a Florida Bar member for 10 years, as required, the nomination failed. DeSantis successfully renominated her in 2022.

“Michael Carlson: The truth behind closed property insurance claims” via Florida Politics — The narrative being created, based in part on an article citing data from Hurricane Ian claims, overlooks a key issue: much of the damage from Ian was caused by storm surge, which is generally not covered by a standard homeowners insurance policy. The result is that consumers are being misled into believing flood claims are covered and denied by insurers without proper justification. There is a timely and even more important reason why a property claim may be closed without payment: if the claim is for damage caused by storm surge or local flooding, it is generally not covered. Many consumers do not know that their standard homeowner’s policy excludes flood damage. If they file a claim for damages caused by flooding, it will be appropriately denied, and the claim will be closed without payment. Critics of the insurance industry should apply their efforts to educate consumers on flood insurance’s importance and value and provide information that will enhance recovery efforts.

— INSTAGRAM OF THE DAY —

and

— ALOE —

“‘It’s Florida, Man’ review: HBO’s star-studded collection of sunshine state misadventures could stand to be quirkier” via Daniel Feinberg of The Hollywood Reporter — Debuting this Friday night at 11, It’s Florida, Man may be the least eccentric and least experimental series that HBO has programmed in its end-of-week late-night hub. If there’s anything less edgy than making fun of the wackiness of Florida and its misadventure-prone denizens, it’s lining up a parade of recognizable guest stars to join in the campaign. But if TV watching and TV perception are habit-forming, how many HBO Sunday shows have been elevated to perceived prestige by their scheduling? — maybe debuting a show this instantly accessible on Fridays at 11 will help train viewers to take an interest the next time Julio Torres does something genuinely surreal or subversive?

“Consumer spending on Halloween goods is racking up with weeks to go before the holiday” via Drew Dixon of Florida Politics — The National Retail Federation (NRF) says nearly half of American consumers have likely already bought some Halloween products in early October. Some 47% of American consumers said they’d likely buy some Halloween goods even before October, up from 37% a half-decade ago and 32% 10 years prior. “With early Halloween shopping on the rise, Florida retailers are already stocked up and ready to meet the early demand,” shared Scott Shalley, president and CEO of the Florida Retail Federation. “Don’t let last-minute Halloween shopping haunt you. Head to your favorite Florida retailers to hunt down the best candy, decorations, costumes, and other Halloween essentials.” The amount of money consumers spend this year appears to be a notable chunk of change on Halloween. They likely will throw down about $103.63 on Halloween products. That is slightly down from 2023, when that figure was $108.24.

— HAPPY BIRTHDAY —

Celebrating today are Justice Jorge Labarga, Karis Lockhart of The Southern Group, Jamie Titcomb, former town manager of Loxahatchee Groves, Jonathan Uriarte, and Cameron Yarbrough.

___

Sunburn is authored and assembled by Peter Schorsch, Phil Ammann, Daniel Dean, Ryan Nicol, Jacob Ogles, and Drew Wilson.