Whitney Fox, national Democrats hope for underdog victory in Florida’s best shot at a flip against Anna Paulina Luna

Neck and neck.

It took Anna Paulina Luna two tries to win a seat in Congress.

The Republican’s 2022 victory in her second try came largely as a result of redistricting following the 2020 census, which shifted the boundaries of Florida’s 13th Congressional District north, carving out the liberal areas of parts of downtown St. Pete and the southside and drawing in more conservative parts of northern Pinellas County.

Now facing her first re-election bid, Luna is facing a tough challenge from Democrat Whitney Fox despite Luna defending her seat in a district that is now rated at R+6.

The battle could serve as a bellwether of sorts for future election cycles. The contest pits an ally of former President Donald Trump, who tends to toe the Make America Great Again line, against a moderate Democrat, as Fox attempts to to oust someone who she believes is a disliked Representative whose extremism doesn’t place constituents’ best interests at heart.

Fox, running at a disadvantage in the red-leaning district, has gained enough momentum to nearly catch Luna in fundraising. Fox also finds herself tied in the most recent polling of district voters and ahead in one poll earlier in the cycle. Another poll has Luna leading by 5, but that poll was commissioned by a national conservative group, Club For Growth, and didn’t provide survey language.

If Fox pulls off an underdog victory, or even if she comes close, as polls suggest she could, it might serve as a message to far-right elected officials and candidates about vulnerabilities that arise from the fringes of partisanship.

Voters will have the opportunity to send that, or other messages, on Tuesday, the final day of voting in the 2024 General Election, which features at the top of the ticket former President Trump’s third presidential run, this time against Vice President Kamala Harris.

Florida’s most competitive

The matchup between Luna and Fox pits two young mothers with diametrically opposed political views on the statewide stage. Of all of the congressional contests in Florida this year, it’s the most competitive, and likely the only opportunity in Florida for Democrats to flip a seat in the U.S. House as the party fights to shift the balance of power in what is now a House narrowly controlled by Republicans.

To put the race into perspective, Democrats have bought into Fox’s candidacy almost entirely. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has placed Fox in its “Red to Blue” program, which aims to support candidates running to unseat incumbent Republicans in races the party sees as winnable. Fox is the only Democrat in Florida to make the program, and is one of only 33 candidates nationwide named to it.

In its announcement last month that it was adding Fox to the program, DCCC Chair U.S. Rep. Suzan DelBene cited not just Fox’s ability to peel off Republican voters from Luna, but Luna’s fringe policies that the group believes are alienating some voters. Constituents, DelBene said, “are tired of Anna Paulina Luna’s far-right extremism.”

“Instead of working to lower costs and strengthen border security, Luna is constantly chasing headlines and sowing dysfunction. Whitney Fox is the pragmatic, solutions-oriented leader that Floridians deserve,” DelBene added. “She will put their needs above petty partisanship and is ready to come to Congress and fight for the people.”

Meanwhile, a relatively new political analysis site that has been grabbing attention from some veteran strategists, CNAlysis, earlier this month bumped the CD 13 race from “leans” Republican to “tilt” Republican, an improvement for Fox and a signal that the race will be more competitive than once believed.

Cook Political Report, the outfit that ranks the race as R+6, still has CD 13 listed as “likely Republican.” But Luna’s re-election race is one of only two Republican-held congressional seats in Florida to make the organization’s list of competitive races.

The other is Florida’s 27th Congressional District, a seat held by Republican U.S. Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar. But her opponent, progressive Miami-Dade County School Board member Lucia Baez-Geller, doesn’t seem to be gaining much traction, raising less than $46,000 to Salazar’s nearly $1.7 million as of mid-October, according to the Miami Herald.

Surprisingly close

Fox entered the race about one year ago, in late October 2023. She was the third Democrat to enter the race, and a couple of others followed in the ensuing weeks and months. Fox established herself almost from the start as a standout candidate, hitting the six-figure mark on campaign fundraising in her first week on the trail.

Fox went on to dominate the Democratic Primary, winning in a five-person field with 58% of the vote. Her next closest challenger, Sabrina Bousbar, only pulled 17%.

With a strong mandate from Democrats entering the General Election stretch, Fox didn’t let up.

After the Primary, the race still seemed pie in the sky for Democrats. As the incumbent, Luna would undoubtedly enjoy stronger name recognition and had a fundraising advantage that seemed difficult to tackle.

But Fox continued her fundraising momentum, consistently outraising Luna in each fundraising period until, in the third quarter of 2024, Fox came to within about $5,000 of Luna in cash on hand — Luna entered the fourth quarter with $812,000 in the bank, while Fox had $807,000.

And polls are showing a tight race. The most recent poll, taken by St. Pete Polls, found the two tied. Not statistically tied, but literally tied at 46% support each, with the remaining 8% of voters still undecided. A previous St. Pete Polls survey, which shocked political watchers, showed Fox leading Luna by nearly 4 percentage points.

An outlier poll, the one conducted for Club for Growth, had Luna up 5 percentage points. Given that the poll was shared with little information about how it was conducted or what questions were asked — meaning the poll could have included wording meant to favor Luna — it’s hard to tell whether its results will reflect actual voter sentiment.

Club for Growth endorsed Luna when she first won her congressional seat in 2022 over Democrat Eric Lynn, and continues to maintain a fundraising portal for the Republican incumbent as she seeks a second term.

The tight race is also evident in the support Fox is receiving. She piled up endorsements early in her campaign, before she even won the Primary, from big names like U.S. Rep. Kathy Castor and U.S. Senate candidate Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. But after the Primary, when the party no longer had to sit on the sidelines waiting for the winner to emerge, Fox started landing support from national Democratic organizations, such as EMILYs List.

But the DCCC adding Fox to its Red to Blue program was the feather in the cap, and sent a strong signal that the party sees the district as very much in play.

Contest issues

Luna has largely run on a platform centered on issues used to bash Harris as she runs for President, as well as current President Joe Biden, whom Republicans are tying Harris to. Luna has been reminding voters of higher prices during the Biden administration, economic issues that are consistently ranked among the top concerns for voters nationwide, including in Luna’s district.

For example, in early September she posted an image on her campaign Facebook page noting price increases “since Kamala took office.” That includes increases to the cost of groceries, rent, gas, electricity, airfare and more.

More recently, due to the hurricanes that hit Pinellas County hard within two weeks of one another, Luna’s campaigning has taken a back seat to storm recovery, with her campaign social media platforms instead sharing information about available resources and other important storm-related information. She also, in her official capacity, was sending text message correspondence to constituents with information, a constituent service that will no doubt help Luna among some voters.

And Luna had the chance to meet with Biden when he visited St. Petersburg following Hurricane Milton, a meet and greet that allowed Luna to at least attempt to soften her image on storm-related issues after she voted the day before Hurricane Helene made landfall in the Big Bend region against emergency funding for the Federal Emergency Management Agency.

That vote had landed Luna in the hot seat and Fox’s campaign made sure to let voters know how the incumbent voted. It was a strong message at a time when thousands of constituents were displaced from their homes amid widespread flooding from Helene, and then more after Milton brought hurricane-force winds to the entire district.

Before the hurricanes, Luna also accused Democrats of running opposition research by posing as the Chief of Staff for Texas Gov. Greg Abbott. She also claimed to have been the subject of threats, and she blamed Democrats’ rhetoric against Trump for the two assassination attempts against him.

Fox, meanwhile, has been running a middle-of-the-road platform, pitching herself as a sensible alternative who will work across the aisle to ensure progress is made for her constituents. Among her many endorsements from the Left, Fox touts backing from the Blue Dog PAC, a left-of-center group that aims to appeal to average Americans through priorities that emphasize fiscal responsibility, strong national defense and cross-party collaboration.

But she has also leaned into areas Democrats hope will motivate sympathetic voters to the polls this cycle, including reproductive rights. With Amendment 4 on the ballot seeking to enshrine abortion access into the state constitution, Democrats are hoping voters more inclined to support Democratic candidates will show up to vote this year. Fox has pitched herself as unapologetically pro-reproductive freedom.

Her campaign priorities also include affordability and addressing the state’s insurance crisis; protecting Social Security and Medicare; increasing affordable housing; helping Florida families; protecting the environment and beaches; assisting veterans; and securing the border and improving immigration.

Who they are

Both Luna and Fox are young mothers, facts they often relate to voters. Apart from that, they share virtually no similarities.

Luna is an Air Force veteran. This is her third congressional race, after unsuccessfully challenging former U.S. Rep. Charlie Crist in 2020 before winning the seat after redistricting in 2022. She came to power amid a red wave in Florida and as a staunch Trump ally. She’s known for Trump-esque comments, such as comparing Hillary Clinton to herpes. She also once referred to herself as a “pro-life extremist” and, in her first race, frequently shared campaign literature with photos of her carrying guns, highlighting her commitment to protecting the Second Amendment.

In Congress, Luna doesn’t have too much of a track record — freshman Representatives rarely get to accomplish much on their own — but she pushed for beach nourishment in Pinellas County and has worked on expanding mental health care and substance abuse treatment for veterans. She also worked on bipartisan legislation with U.S. Rep. Jared Moskowitz, also from Florida, to cap federal student loan interest at 3% in an effort to lower the student loan burden.

Fox is a first-time candidate who previously served as the Communications Director for the Pinellas Suncoast Transit Authority. She has a bachelor’s degree in advertising and public relations from the University of Central Florida.