Jacob Ogles
Republican Donald Trump holds a lead in the contest for Florida’s electoral votes, but Democrat Kamala Harris is ahead among voters whose ballots are already in.
That’s according to a new survey by St. Pete Polls, conducted for Florida Politics. The poll found more than 50% of likely voters in the Sunshine State intend to back Trump for President for a third consecutive time. Meanwhile, under 45% support Harris. Nearly 3% will vote for another candidate.
Pollsters report a 2.8-percentage-point margin of error. The results suggest why the onetime battleground has increasingly been viewed as a Republican-leaning state in this year’s presidential race.
The poll of 1,227 likely Florida voters was conducted from Oct. 23 through 25. Results were weighted to reflect an electorate that’s 41% Republican, 34% Democrat and 25% other voters.
Conducted roughly halfway through early voting in most parts of the state, about half the respondents in the poll had already cast their ballots either through early voting or by mail.
Of note, Harris holds a lead among those who already cast their votes. Among the half of voters whose decision was made, more than 49% support the Democrat, while 48% back Trump.
Importantly, Democrats in the last two election cycles in Florida have voted early in greater numbers than Republicans, who were more likely to wait until Election Day to cast ballots in person.
The poll shows Trump with a lead among women, despite the prospect of Harris becoming the nation’s first woman President. About 49% of women in the state surveyed say they will back Trump while under 47% will back the Democrat instead. Among men, Trump’s lead is a more sizable, at 52% to 42%.
Harris would also be the first Black woman elected President, and 83% of Black voters intend to support Harris compared to 14% who will back Trump. But that also indicates inroads for Republicans. According to the Pew Research Center, about 92% of Black voters in 2020 backed Democrat Joe Biden, who had Harris as his running mate, over Trump.
Trump also leads among Hispanic voters 51% to 42%, according to the poll.
While more than half of voters age 29 and younger support Harris, Trump leads among all other age demographics according to the poll.
StPetePolls 2024 State GEN October25 U74PS6 by Jacob Ogles on Scribd
12 comments
Ron Ogden
October 28, 2024 at 8:33 am
Harris is a Black female, yet she has lost ground among Blacks and outright loses among females. For the Democrats the lesson must be that regardless of “identity”, all Americans want competence and character first and foremost. Whether it has to do with Harris’s basic qualifications, or whether it has to do with the embarrassing events of the early summer that kicked her through the goalposts of the nomination, they don’t see it with her.
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cassandra was right
October 28, 2024 at 12:10 pm
“regardless of “identity”, all Americans want competence and character.”
After Trump’s MSG NAZI “identity” rally, you say this!?!
Vote Harris-Walz
Dont Say FLA
October 28, 2024 at 12:20 pm
But on the other side we have a dementia patient screaming how “they’re eating the DOGS!”
The man doesn’t even show up for his own rallies at the start time of his own choosing. It’s not traffic making him late. He gets the full highway shutdown like he was some important guy.
Not being traffic that makes him perpetually late AF, we are left with the obvious: he late because the Rexulti doesn’t always get him out of Sway Mode and they have keep trying another pill and see if he’s at his normal, accepted level of crazy yet and can be sent out onto stage now.
An eaten dog is more fit to serve than Turnip J Truck. If he’s not a severe dementia patient, let’s see him show up on time to some events in the next week and prove it.
Michael K
October 28, 2024 at 8:45 am
There are a lot of women out there who will quietly (or not so quietly) cancel their husband’s Trump vote. It will, as always, come down to turnout.
After the rally yesterday in NYC, I can’t help but wonder how many so-called “religious patriots” would bring their young children to an event so full of crude racial, ethnic, and misogynistic slurs and vulgarity? Such a dark, apocalyptic, and dystopian view of America. It reminds me of the anti-American images Russia conjured up of our nation during the Cold War.
Character and decency still matter to at least half of the people in this country.
Tom
October 28, 2024 at 11:13 am
What’s really sad is that he’ll probably win. Who knew that crass and stupid was a winning formula? I guess that’s just who we are as a country these days.
MARILYN DAILEY
October 28, 2024 at 11:49 am
I agree Michael and in fact know of women who are quietly supporting Harris but aren’t mentioning it publicly to avoid criticism. The Dobbs decision woke alot of women up to the consequences of a second Trump term.
Sex workers for Harris.
October 28, 2024 at 11:53 am
Go abort yourself
Sex workers for Harris.
October 28, 2024 at 11:53 am
Better than your pathetic whore candidate endorsed by garbage whores.
Cringe
October 28, 2024 at 12:07 pm
Cringe
Dont Say FLA
October 28, 2024 at 12:14 pm
Did Turnip J Truck manage to find, un-stick and remove “the enema within” yet?
Please man get that thing out of there ASAP!
We all tired of hearing about your elderly guy sh-t hole problems.
MarvinM
October 28, 2024 at 12:19 pm
These polls were taken before Trump’s NY rally where his warm-up act apparently felt it was OK to call Puerto Rico a garbage island. Not to mention the comments he made about Latinos having so many babies and why. It was disgusting.
Trump himself has not condemned these statements. (The campaign has made a mealy-mouthed statement about it. Not good enough.)
So don’t be surprised if Harris does better on election day than these polls prognosticate. No cheating, no fraud, no millions of illegal voters needed for Trump to lose.
Trump wants to work on his enemies list*.
Harris wants to work on her To Do list**.
JD Vance wants a ten year old to have a baby.
Tim Walz wants a ten year old to have lunch.
Vote by next week, Nov. 5th. Check your county supervisor of elections website for the best information.
– — – — – — – — – — — – — – —
* Trump: Get Adam Schiff
Get Nancy Pelosi
** Harris: Pass the bipartisan border security bill to strengthen and secure our border.
Expand Medicare to cover home care for seniors and people with disabilities.
Expand the startup tax deduction for small businesses by 10x to $50,000.