Jacob Ogles
Republican Donald Trump holds a lead in the contest for Florida’s electoral votes, but Democrat Kamala Harris is ahead among voters whose ballots are already in.
That’s according to a new survey by St. Pete Polls, conducted for Florida Politics. The poll found more than 50% of likely voters in the Sunshine State intend to back Trump for President for a third consecutive time. Meanwhile, under 45% support Harris. Nearly 3% will vote for another candidate.
Pollsters report a 2.8-percentage-point margin of error. The results suggest why the onetime battleground has increasingly been viewed as a Republican-leaning state in this year’s presidential race.
The poll of 1,227 likely Florida voters was conducted from Oct. 23 through 25. Results were weighted to reflect an electorate that’s 41% Republican, 34% Democrat and 25% other voters.
Conducted roughly halfway through early voting in most parts of the state, about half the respondents in the poll had already cast their ballots either through early voting or by mail.
Of note, Harris holds a lead among those who already cast their votes. Among the half of voters whose decision was made, more than 49% support the Democrat, while 48% back Trump.
Importantly, Democrats in the last two election cycles in Florida have voted early in greater numbers than Republicans, who were more likely to wait until Election Day to cast ballots in person.
The poll shows Trump with a lead among women, despite the prospect of Harris becoming the nation’s first woman President. About 49% of women in the state surveyed say they will back Trump while under 47% will back the Democrat instead. Among men, Trump’s lead is a more sizable, at 52% to 42%.
Harris would also be the first Black woman elected President, and 83% of Black voters intend to support Harris compared to 14% who will back Trump. But that also indicates inroads for Republicans. According to the Pew Research Center, about 92% of Black voters in 2020 backed Democrat Joe Biden, who had Harris as his running mate, over Trump.
Trump also leads among Hispanic voters 51% to 42%, according to the poll.
While more than half of voters age 29 and younger support Harris, Trump leads among all other age demographics according to the poll.
StPetePolls 2024 State GEN October25 U74PS6 by Jacob Ogles on Scribd
39 comments
Ron Ogden
October 28, 2024 at 8:33 am
Harris is a Black female, yet she has lost ground among Blacks and outright loses among females. For the Democrats the lesson must be that regardless of “identity”, all Americans want competence and character first and foremost. Whether it has to do with Harris’s basic qualifications, or whether it has to do with the embarrassing events of the early summer that kicked her through the goalposts of the nomination, they don’t see it with her.
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cassandra was right
October 28, 2024 at 12:10 pm
“regardless of “identity”, all Americans want competence and character.”
After Trump’s MSG NAZI “identity” rally, you say this!?!
Vote Harris-Walz
Geneva
November 1, 2024 at 4:27 am
I was at the MSG rally. I am a 4th generation American, a native New Yorker. I am a registered Republican. I have 2 post graduate degrees in finance and macroeconomics. I have no affiliation with the Nazi Party nor do I support fascism. What I can do is tell the difference between an economic plan and gov’t cash handouts meant to buy votes.
YEW OWEME
November 1, 2024 at 4:20 pm
GENEVA, the economist mag endorsed harris, so you know more about economics than they do, how strange. you sound like a maga cultist to me. your education level is being trumped by maga cult insanity. it seems. the greedy don’t care about the needy.
Dont Say FLA
October 28, 2024 at 12:20 pm
But on the other side we have a dementia patient screaming how “they’re eating the DOGS!”
The man doesn’t even show up for his own rallies at the start time of his own choosing. It’s not traffic making him late. He gets the full highway shutdown like he was some important guy.
Not being traffic that makes him perpetually late AF, we are left with the obvious: he late because the Rexulti doesn’t always get him out of Sway Mode and they have keep trying another pill and see if he’s at his normal, accepted level of crazy yet and can be sent out onto stage now.
An eaten dog is more fit to serve than Turnip J Truck. If he’s not a severe dementia patient, let’s see him show up on time to some events in the next week and prove it.
Michael K
October 28, 2024 at 8:45 am
There are a lot of women out there who will quietly (or not so quietly) cancel their husband’s Trump vote. It will, as always, come down to turnout.
After the rally yesterday in NYC, I can’t help but wonder how many so-called “religious patriots” would bring their young children to an event so full of crude racial, ethnic, and misogynistic slurs and vulgarity? Such a dark, apocalyptic, and dystopian view of America. It reminds me of the anti-American images Russia conjured up of our nation during the Cold War.
Character and decency still matter to at least half of the people in this country.
Tom
October 28, 2024 at 11:13 am
What’s really sad is that he’ll probably win. Who knew that crass and stupid was a winning formula? I guess that’s just who we are as a country these days.
cassandra was right
October 28, 2024 at 1:39 pm
Whatever they’re saying, it’s Harris they are voting for — despite more Republican ballots submitted! Who wants a Mad-Man for president??? Get out and vote for Harris to protect Individual Rights and Freedom!
Vote Harris-Walz
Kswede50
October 28, 2024 at 6:33 pm
You got it all wrong. Harris /Walz are phony and disingenuous. Kamala ruined my hometown of San Francisco and has gone downhill ever since. I don’t trust her and Walz is even worse. I KNOW that they will not win the presidency because Mr Trump and JD Vance have it all wrapped up.
Geneva
November 1, 2024 at 4:31 am
Are you calling me crass and stupid because I follow a diffferent ideology than you do? That tack is called “dogmatic intolerance”. It is the hallmark of Dems like you. It also played a prominent role under Stalin. I can see, though, that you are a poor student of history. Good luck; I hope you survive 11/5/24.
YEW OWEME
November 1, 2024 at 4:01 pm
GENEVA, based on your comment, it is an accurate definition of you. it’s like calling an ace an ace. you go ahead and vote for a sex perv and a felonious fraudster, then call your deluded self anything you want to call yourself.
MARILYN DAILEY
October 28, 2024 at 11:49 am
I agree Michael and in fact know of women who are quietly supporting Harris but aren’t mentioning it publicly to avoid criticism. The Dobbs decision woke alot of women up to the consequences of a second Trump term.
Sex workers for Harris.
October 28, 2024 at 11:53 am
Go abort yourself
YEW OWEME
November 1, 2024 at 4:06 pm
SEX WORKER, are you a human or a slug. please complete captcha diagram for validation.
Ailyn Guerra
November 2, 2024 at 6:16 pm
Yeyé Oweme. Thousands of illegal immigrants are lost and CNN says they just haven’t shown up to court, New York has immigrants terrorizing the Citizens, California is filled with garbage and poor people, New Yorkers left to Florida and sold their properties to come to another state, a simple DNA testing was removed from the border, now cartels are getting paid to traffic thousands of people and we don’t even know if the people they come with are families or traffickers. The only important job that Harris had was to address the border issue and she hasn’t, people serving our country were killed because of the incompetence decision made by our president now, we are supporting sex changes to incarcerated people. Please explain these issue to me and help me understand you.
Sex workers for Harris.
October 28, 2024 at 11:53 am
Better than your pathetic whore candidate endorsed by garbage whores.
Cringe
October 28, 2024 at 12:07 pm
Cringe
Michael K
October 28, 2024 at 1:26 pm
“…so full of crude racial, ethnic, and misogynistic slurs and vulgarity.”
Anonymous
October 31, 2024 at 12:22 am
Wasn’t that woman screaming in the toddlers face at the Kamala/beyonce rally…you saw that right?
Dont Say FLA
October 28, 2024 at 12:14 pm
Did Turnip J Truck manage to find, un-stick and remove “the enema within” yet?
Please man get that thing out of there ASAP!
We all tired of hearing about your elderly guy sh-t hole problems.
MarvinM
October 28, 2024 at 12:19 pm
These polls were taken before Trump’s NY rally where his warm-up act apparently felt it was OK to call Puerto Rico a garbage island. Not to mention the comments he made about Latinos having so many babies and why. It was disgusting.
Trump himself has not condemned these statements. (The campaign has made a mealy-mouthed statement about it. Not good enough.)
So don’t be surprised if Harris does better on election day than these polls prognosticate. No cheating, no fraud, no millions of illegal voters needed for Trump to lose.
Trump wants to work on his enemies list*.
Harris wants to work on her To Do list**.
JD Vance wants a ten year old to have a baby.
Tim Walz wants a ten year old to have lunch.
Vote by next week, Nov. 5th. Check your county supervisor of elections website for the best information.
– — – — – — – — – — — – — – —
* Trump: Get Adam Schiff
Get Nancy Pelosi
** Harris: Pass the bipartisan border security bill to strengthen and secure our border.
Expand Medicare to cover home care for seniors and people with disabilities.
Expand the startup tax deduction for small businesses by 10x to $50,000.
Michael K
October 28, 2024 at 1:26 pm
Well said.
Bob Smith
October 28, 2024 at 1:45 pm
Nonsense! Harris is not a good candidate. Even President Biden hates her. You will see Trump outperform the polls like he did in 2016. People are tired of living in the inflation era and the tyranny of the Central Government. Trump wants to return to the roots of the Constitution. At the core is the central tenant of how our Constitution setup government and that is Federalism.
Democrats hate Federalism, they want a European model of a single centralized all powerful government.
cassandra was right
October 28, 2024 at 3:46 pm
“tyranny of the Central Government” LOL.. That’s what FOX is calling it now? This is exactly what Trump plans!
Trump has already announced that he will punish any state that defies his orders. Have you forgotten: No sanctuary states/cities. No protests/riots in states or cities (and he says he will send in the military to end any). Etc!
Trump will do to the country what DeSantis has done to Florida: every aspect of life dictated by one petty mad-man! As you know, DeSantis has taken away people’s right to join together as local governments in order to pass local laws, (cruise ship size, beach lights out for turtles, straws, water for workers, wages, etc) even HOA laws and rules are banned by the governor! People can’t even decide what goes on on their own street in Florida! Trump has promised to do the same at the federal level!
Vote HARRIS-WALZ!
YEW OWEME
November 1, 2024 at 4:11 pm
BOB SMITH, you live in the 19th century, i’ll live in the 21st century. harris is a 21st century agenda. good luck with dreaming about the past. you probably believe that women can’t make a good president.
Ailyn Guerra
November 2, 2024 at 6:18 pm
Thousands of illegal immigrants are lost and CNN says they just haven’t shown up to court, New York has immigrants terrorizing the Citizens, California is filled with garbage and poor people, New Yorkers left to Florida and sold their properties to come to another state, a simple DNA testing was removed from the border, now cartels are getting paid to traffic thousands of people and we don’t even know if the people they come with are families or traffickers. The only important job that Harris had was to address the border issue and she hasn’t, people serving our country were killed because of the incompetence decision made by our president now, we are supporting sex changes to incarcerated people. Please explain these issue to me and help me understand you.
Florida is a redstate
October 28, 2024 at 3:01 pm
St pete polls are a joke. They had hillary up
in 2016, gillium up big in 2018 and biden winning florida on 2020. We all saw what happened each time. The early vote i just checked 5 minutes ago and republicans are up over 500,000 votes in person voting. The mail ins dems have a slight edge . So by election day republicans should have 800 to 900 thousand vote edge yet this bad polling firm and florida politics puts up the lie that dems are doing better voting before election day. I know florida politics is left leaning but the facts are the dems are loosing florida big and they know it!!
Mark G
October 28, 2024 at 3:21 pm
I know several women who are quietly voting for Harris. Polls are grossly inaccurate. Trump just kicked himself in the ass when his party (Tony Hinchcliffe called PR a garbage island) insulted Puerto Ricans at his rally. Lots of Latinos from PR live in states like Florida, New York, and Pennsylvania. This will come back to hurt him. If Harris wins FL, election night will be over pretty quickly. Say nite nite to Trump. 🙂
Ailyn Guerra
November 2, 2024 at 6:26 pm
That’s what you care about? A comedian who btw is friends with bad bunny who called puerto rican on what they are? Are they not a dump? They party, drink and don’t want to work. I am here to support citizens and immigrants that want to work, grow, open businesses, have a bright future, go to college, be educated and be successful. I do not agree with crackheads, druggies, kids that don’t want to go to school and want to stay home, I don’t agree with supporting mental health issue and voiding more mental health issue by supporting sex changes. I agree with helping people with mental issue through therapy, support, empathy, crating a group or social workers to have someone to talk to, creating jobs that these people will feel more welcomed. But I do not support a transgender individual to educate my kids dressed up as a woman while he is a man or having little boys and girls in the same bathrooms I do not support a system that allows immigrants to come here without first being process to find out if they have funds to support themselves while the process is happening I don’t support criminals coming to this country I do support for people to seek help if the country they live in is in a bad situation and therefore maybe provide help for these individuals but I don not support sex trafficking. Now based on the things I care about how does Harris provide support and help?
The man predictions are in the year 2525
October 28, 2024 at 3:38 pm
Between the modern day psychopath to take away taxes and that will bankrupt eldercare. And no one wants to pay or fix it.
Good luck on those programed stocks that’s all you have mass productions
The man predictions are in the year 2525
October 28, 2024 at 4:21 pm
Donald will not stop mass production.
Donald will not play Mexican standoff
Donald will have executive orders and n y hanging with no pardon on his Head
The man predictions are in the year 2525
October 28, 2024 at 8:39 pm
Just a thought
Hitler was all and everyone’s problem from religions to attitudes to looks to genes
Lucky they just kept coming.
Dont Say FLA
October 29, 2024 at 7:20 am
Women say they’re breaking for MAGA candidates, but they only say that so their MAGA boyfriend doesn’t break their face.
We shall see how they actually vote. I predict 25% to 35% of Florida’s GOP leaning cast ballots having one very significant abstention at the top of the ticket.
Only prevention is for all GOP men to promise a whooping to all their women in the event Turnip J Truck gets a high number of abstentions.
Abstention: When you don’t do something. Conservatives think it’s sex, but it can be any action from which one withholds, including but not limited to voting in any particular race such as the race for President of USA.
M Kohn
October 29, 2024 at 11:20 am
Watch how women VOTE!
ABORTION IS THE ‘ISSUE’ FOR BOTH WOMEN and MEN. Watch how Gen Z votes, they want the FREEDOM to read what they want, and should. LGBTQ+ , Rights, NO ONE asked to be be born GAY, IT HAPPENS. WHY Discriminate against anyone??? There isnt a CHOICE! FREEDOM OR NOT!!! I Choose FREEDOM FOR ALL🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
Charles S
October 29, 2024 at 4:56 pm
There is an overriding hate in America that allows him to insult and degrade groups of Americans but because he has singled out a group that his magets can all hate and fear and are unable to defend themselves or fight back they are used. He can call america trash, Puerto Ricans trash, Latinos trash, our servicemen and women suckers and losers, degrade women comitt felonies and be convicted. Think of it a felon running for president in the law and order party, we should be laughing but it’s tragic. It’s a hate and fear based campaign. So this campaign is about us and our willingness to disregard facts and go towards facism government.
It’s a sad day for the statue that sits in New York harbor. The other sad thing is those that were tricked by the con man will be the ones he’ll turn on in the end just like the comic that appear at his msg rally.
Catherine L. Cowart, MD
October 29, 2024 at 7:58 pm
There is one person who will definitely NOT be voting for Trump, and that’s Trump himself. FELONS aren’t allowed to vote in Florida. And as for the economy, not only is gas under $3/gallon, but the stock market has reached numerous record highs. I’ve made 45% in both my 401k and my investment accounts, way more than during the Trump admin. And as a retired GYN/Infertility doctor, it saddens me to see the state of women’s healthcare.
Catherine L. Cowart
October 29, 2024 at 7:59 pm
That’s 45% in the past 12 months!
Charles S
October 29, 2024 at 8:34 pm
It’s simple for me I don’t vote for overthrowing the constitution, a felon or calling america a trash can and our service men and women suckers and losers. I vote my values I voted for him once but not this time. Sorry.
Comments are closed.