Can Gay Valimont defeat the eternally controversial Matt Gaetz in Florida’s reddest district?

Florida’s 1st Congressional District remains Florida’s most ruby red district, providing U.S. Rep. Matt Gaetz a reliable voter base. But Democratic challenger Gay Valimont said voters of all political stripes have reason to toss the four-term incumbent.

Marred by controversy and scandal while frequently irritating even Republican leaders in the House, Valimont said it’s a matter of time before someone shows Gaetz the door out of the U.S. House. It may as well be his voters.

“If he wins, watch for him to be expelled in November or December sparking a Special Election,” Valimont said. “We are also prepared for that.”

Gaetz remains under investigation by the House Ethics Committee, whose leaders in June said they were looking into accusations of sexual misconduct, drug use and the potential granting of favors to romantic interests.

But Gaetz has been under scrutiny for personal accusations for a long time. Last year, federal prosecutors informed he would face no criminal charges related to a two-year sex trafficking investigation stemming from a probe of former Seminole County Tax Collector Joel Greenberg’s litany of crimes. He scoffs at Valimont’s prediction of his professional doom.

“It’s quite the historic prediction,” he said. “Congress has only expelled two groups of people in American history: those who have been charged with crimes, and those who joined the confederacy during the civil war. I’m in neither group.”

Asked why voters should retain him for a fifth term in Washington, his reply was to the point: “I fight for them.”

A Niceville High School graduate, and the son of former Florida Senate President Don Gaetz, he has a long history of advocating for the region. He served in the Florida House before his 2016 election to Congress. In Washington, he helped this year to secure $240 million in the House budget for military operations in the Panhandle, along with $191 million for new Defense Department construction.

Elected to Congress the same year Donald Trump won the presidency, Gaetz quickly forged a relationship with the Republican leader, something he said will pay dividends if Trump wins a second term in the White House on Nov. 5.

But Valimont sees Gaetz chasing cameras more often than advocating for constituents. And cable news may be the only chance voters get to see him. Valimont said he seems content to campaign for Trump and avoid local questions on his record.

“He is not even in the state to ask constituents for their vote. He has been silent by Gaetz standards,” Valimont said.

“He either thinks he’s so safe that he doesn’t have to campaign, taking voters for granted, or he knows if he comes home he will have to answer questions about the sworn testimony in his sex scandal. I have been on the ground talking to voters for 15 months, so it’s not going to be a landslide win, maybe the biggest upset in the country. I’m asking voters to vote for common sense, not nonsense.”

Valimont, a gun violence prevention activist with Moms Demand Action, has been politically involved for years. She recently lost both her husband and son to health issues and was a prime caretaker for each. She now hopes to serve the district in the U.S. House.

Of note, another explanation why Gaetz isn’t heavily campaigning in the district could also be the relative safety of his seat. As of Oct. 11, Republicans registered in the district outnumber Democrats by more than 184,000 votes. As of the end of September, Gaetz reported $735,000 in cash on hand, while Valimont had less than $65,000.

Perhaps because of Gaetz’s notoriety, she has been able to raise more than $1.4 million over the course of the campaign, compared to the incumbent’s $6.4 million.

Much of Gaetz’s war chest went into defeating a Republican Primary opponent, Aaron Dimmock, who had been vetted by former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. Gaetz in 2023 led an ouster of McCarthy as Speaker, marking the first time the House has removed a presiding officer in U.S. history. While that prompted wide anger within the House Republican caucus, Gaetz won his Primary at home with more than 71% of the vote.

Gaetz also notably has tried to clean up his act publicly in recent years. After the Greenberg scandal threatened his career in 2021, Gaetz married Ginger Luckey. He’s now rumored as a candidate for Governor.

But he has previously shot down speculation about 2026, and said he’s focused instead on his work in the House.