Jesse Scheckner
In 2020, María Elvira Salazar roared back from a decisive loss two years prior to unseat the Democratic incumbent in a rematch for Florida’s 27th Congressional District.
She secured victory then by a respectable 3 percentage points, flipping the long-red seat back to crimson. The next cycle, when Republicans overtook Democrats in Florida’s statewide voter rolls for the first time ever, she won by nearly five times that margin.
Since then, Republicans have grown their advantage to more than 1 million voters. They’re still outnumbered in Miami-Dade County, which contains CD 27, but they’re getting close; as of Sept. 30, the last date from which by-county voter data is available from the Division of Elections, Republicans trailed Democrats in Miami-Dade by just 3 percentage points. And they’re far outpacing their counterparts across the aisle in early voting.
It’s against that backdrop that the race is unfolding for CD 27, which spans the municipalities of Miami, Coral Gables, Cutler Bay, Key Biscayne, Pinecrest, North Bay Village, South Miami, West Miami and several unincorporated areas.
This time, Salazar faces a challenge from Democrat Lucia Báez-Geller, a former high school teacher who in her four years on the Miami-Dade School Board distinguished herself as its most progressive member. Báez-Geller is running on that record and the compassionate stances she took on the panel despite culture war issues that make doing so less politically expedient.
In her favor is the fact that CD 27 voters have historically favored educators. The area was long represented by Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, a moderate Republican teacher and private school operator who served in federal office from 1989 to 2019.
Ros-Lehtinen’s successor, Democrat Donna Shalala, worked for decades as President or Chancellor of three higher education institutions, including the University of Miami. She’s the last to beat Salazar, a former Spanish-language newscaster.
Báez-Geller, 41, is the daughter of a Cuban father and Colombian mother and the first person in her family to attend college. She won election to the Miami-Dade School Board in 2020, and her support of progressive policies on the dais since — including her repeated sponsorship of measures to observe LGBTQ History Month, once a non-issue for the school district — drew accusations of extremism from the National Republican Campaign Committee all the day down to anti-woke activists at the local level.
She maintains that hers is an empathetic, pragmatic platform. Where Salazar has been reticent on abortion, for instance — it’s not part of the Congresswoman’s published campaign platform, for or against — Báez-Geller says she’s for federally protecting the procedure and opened up in a Miami Herald op-ed to detail how she once had an abortion to end a nonviable pregnancy.
She wants to tackle affordability issues, from lowering the cost of housing, homeowner insurance and prescription drug prices to making health care more accessible and expanding the federal Child and Dependent Care Credit.
Salazar, a 62-year-old born in Miami to Cuban exiles, is running on an anti-socialism, pro-capitalism, pro-term limits platform that also highlights the need for affordable health care and strong educational options.
She also listed environmental protections as a priority, describing herself as a “proud champion of the Everglades” who is “leading the charge” on creating a national resilience strategy to safeguard coastal communities from hurricanes, storm surges and rising sea levels.
Salazar notes that she secured millions of dollars for CD 27 to build stormwater and flood-controlling infrastructure and to improve the health of Biscayne Bay. She also cites her support for successful legislation to aid in coral reef restoration.
Báez-Geller says that acknowledging the reality of climate change and taking steps to better prepare for it and prevent it from worsening is vital. To that end, she pointed out that Salazar voted against Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act, which included a $370 million earmark for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
Salazar caught flack for other votes, though not as much for the votes themselves but her actions after. She held publicity events to present federal funding checks to local schools and organizations — after voting against apportioning the money in Washington through measures like the Consolidated Appropriations Act and CHIPS and Science Act.
And she hasn’t been particularly effective in passing her own legislation. Since taking office, Salazar has passed just one bill (HR 4389) to fund projects promoting the conservation of migratory birds. Three others aimed at denouncing socialism, posthumously honoring diplomats who helped save Jewish people during the Holocaust and requiring more guidance for returning Paycheck Protection Program loans passed in the House.
It’s not for a lack of ambition. Her signature legislation, a voluminous bill called the Dignity Act, would provide illegal immigrants a payment path to permanent residency and citizenship in some cases, while setting aside billions for border security operations and improvements. She introduced the measure in 2022 and 2023 to praise from both sides of the political divide. It has yet to pass the GOP-controlled House.
Salazar is more of a moderate than she presents. She voted, for example, in favor of creating a post-Jan. 6 commission to investigate the U.S. Capitol attack. She also supported a measure to raise the federal age or assault-style rifles from 18 to 21.
This cycle, she’s won endorsements at every level, including big ones like Donald Trump and U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio to local supporters including Mayors Joe Corradino of Pinecrest, Eric Diaz-Padron of West Miami and Tim Meerbott of Cutler Bay.
A plethora of union and advocacy groups are also behind her, including the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, South Florida Council of Firefighters, Americans for Prosperity, LIBRE Initiative, Maggie’s List, Florida Right to Life, Humane Society, Florida Associated Builders and Contractors and the pro-Israel AIPAC, among others.
Báez-Geller, meanwhile, carries endorsements from Miami Gardens state Sen. Shevrin Jones, Chair of the Miami-Dade Democratic Party; U.S. Rep. Lois Frankel; state Reps. Kevin Chambliss and Ashley Gantt; South Miami Mayor Javier Fernández; former U.S. Reps. Shalala and Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, the latter of whom is running to supplant U.S. Sen. Rick Scott; and a dozen or so current and former state and local leaders.
Her organizational backers include the Sierra Club, EMILY’s List, Equality Florida, SEIU, League of Conservation Voters, Latino Victory Fund and CHC Bold PAC, among others.
In terms of fundraising, it’s hardly a contest. Salazar collected more than $3 million and spent $1.42 million through Oct. 16. Her gains came through a blend of personal checks, corporate contributions and political donations.
That included ample help from fellow GOP members of Congress, most notably House Speaker Mike Johnson’s PAC, Grow the Majority. Several billionaires kicked cash her way as well, including Jupiter real estate investor and author Justin Daniels, Dallas investment analyst Ken Fisher, New York businessman Ken Langone, Hobe Sound businessman John Malone, Miami Beach hedge fund manager Daniel Och and Las Vegas real estate developer and ex-casino tycoon Steve Wynn, who resigned as Finance Chair of the Republican National Committee in 2018 amid sexual misconduct allegations.
Báez-Geller collected $591,500 through Oct. 16, by which time she had spent about $486,000 of that sum. Much of the money came through personal checks, including ones from local business leaders like Doral-based Badia Spices CEO Joseph Badia, Books & Books owner Mitch Kaplan and car dealership magnate George Williamson, as well as politicians like Senate Democratic Leader-designate Jason Pizzo, ex-Miami Mayor Alex Penelas and former Pinecrest Mayor Cindy Lerner, who is again running for the Miami-Dade Commission.
Analyses of CD 27, as redrawn by the DeSantis administration, show it is now safer than before for Republicans but still the most closely divided congressional district in Florida.
It’s also 74% Hispanic, the highest percentage for the voting age population anywhere in the state.
Biden won the district under its old borders in 2020 by 3.3 percentage points, according to MCI Maps. Two years later, DeSantis won it by 17 points, while Rubio won there by 15.
The General Election is on Nov. 5.
