Jacob Ogles
Few people saw U.S. Rep. Darren Soto as vulnerable to a challenge in 2022. Yet despite a lack of significant investment by Republicans, the Kissimmee Democrat returned to Washington with the narrowest margin of victory of any member of Florida’s congressional delegation.
That was in a Republican wave year (in Florida at least). Democrats have long asserted that Republicans won’t match that performance in a Presidential Election year. But former Osceola County School Board member Thomas Chalifoux is testing that theory as he challenges Soto with the backing of the National Republican Congressional Committee.
“Under Darren Soto’s watch, inflation has battered our families, crime has surged, and our communities have been left vulnerable,” Chalifoux said.
“I’m running to bring real solutions that lower costs, tackle crime, and support families, not just special interests in Washington. I’ll work tirelessly to restore stability and safety, and I’m asking for your vote so I can earn your trust by delivering the results you deserve. Together, we can take back control of our economy and our communities.”
Does he have any shot? Florida’s 9th Congressional District remains a Democratic district, but it’s a closer divide than four years ago. According to the latest book closing reports ahead of the Nov. 5 General Election, CD 9 was home to more than 170,000 registered Democrats and upward of 123,000 Republicans. Two years ago, Democrats outnumbered Republicans 191,000 to 115,000.
But in a Presidential Election year, Soto has expressed confidence Democrats will do well in Central Florida. He said many of his constituents feel motivated to block Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump from returning to the White House, something exacerbated by a rally at Madison Square Garden widely criticized for incendiary rhetoric by several speakers.
“There’s no question we’re better off compared to four years ago,” Soto said. “Is it that long ago that we forget we were hunkered down in our homes facing a 100-year pandemic, the economy was in free fall, and we kicked Donald Trump out of office because of his incompetence, his inability to handle a major crisis. And then when we got President (Joe) Biden and Vice President Harris in office.”
Beyond the pandemic, he said Democrats have delivered on infrastructure, and Central Florida has benefited specifically. That has included funding for SunRail and numerous water projects. Soto in August announced a $188 million Water Infrastructure Finance and Innovation Act loan to the Toho Water Authority.
Soto, a former state Senator, won his seat in Congress in 2016 with 58% of the vote, becoming the first lawmaker of Puerto Rican descent to represent Florida in Congress. While redistricting in 2022 helped Republican flip four seats, it also firmly established CD 9 as a Hispanic-performing seat.
Soto suggested many of the voters in the region will feel a kinship with “Caribbean sister” Kamala Harris, a Democratic presidential nominee with family roots in Jamaica. Nationwide, he feels confidence voters will send him back to a Democrat-controlled Congress. “I think on Election Night we’re going to see, with all of our hard work, a narrow but important victory in the House,” he said.
One difference from this year and recent elections for Soto is that he faces an opponent with deep pockets. Thanks largely to self-funding, Chalifoux reported almost $1.5 million in spending just through Oct. 15. He loaned his campaign $2.5 million, and he entered the last few weeks of campaign season with almost $1.2 million in cash.
By comparison, Soto raised more than $1.9 million this election cycle, and closed the period with about $185,000.
Chalifoux conducted much of his spending in the Primary. But he also hopes solid performance by Republicans in early voting will portend well for his race, the only congressional district in Florida with Republicans on offense.
