After the most expensive ballot campaign in the country, Florida voters will decide whether to legalize recreational pot

Exactly 10 years ago today, dreams of legalizing marijuana in the state of Florida appeared to go up in smoke.

While polling weeks prior had shown Amendment 2, a medical marijuana measure, on the road to passage, fewer than 58% of voters said “yes” to pharmaceutical grass. Florida law requires a 60% supermajority for amendments on the ballot to pass.

“I learned a lot through that,” said Orlando lawyer John Morgan. “I learned I probably should have done it during a presidential year. Better turnout is better for marijuana.”

And indeed, voters two years later approved a different Amendment 2, approving medical cannabis in Florida the same day they surprised the nation by supporting Donald Trump for President.

Once again, voters head to the polls Tuesday ready to elect a President, and voters will also weigh in on the question of pot. This time, it’s Amendment 3, which would decriminalize marijuana for adults over age 21.

For a third Presidential Election in a row, Florida voters have Trump as an option for Commander in Chief, and the Florida resident is endorsing Amendment 3. The other option, Democrat Kamala Harris, supports decriminalization nationwide, making marijuana one rare area of unity between the candidates.

But the measure certainly has opposition, most notably from Gov. Ron DeSantis, a Republican who won re-election just two years ago by 19 percentage points.

Despite guidance from Trump to vote “yes,” DeSantis has repeatedly called into question the wisdom of putting the right to possess small amounts of pot into the state constitution, predicting a nightmare for law enforcement. And he has aggressively stoked fears that the measure will be more permissive than in other states where smoking marijuana is already the law.

“The way the amendment is written, they’re saying you have a constitutional right to possess and smoke marijuana,” DeSantis said, “and that’s different than what Colorado did or California did.”

All this raises the question: Will the recreational pot campaign on Tuesday float its way into Florida law? Or is the measure en route to a bummer crash more like what weed advocates experienced a decade ago?

The Smart & Safe Florida campaign has invested nearly $150 million in ads promoting the measure. It’s a staggering amount, according to Dr. Susan MacManus, a University of South Florida professor emeritus and top Florida political scientist.

“Do you realize that of all the issues across the country in all 50 states, none have had more money spent than No 3?” she said at a Florida TaxWatch event last week.

The vast majority of that cash has come from Trulieve, Florida’s top medical marijuana company and presumably the organization best positioned to profit off the measure’s passage, though other smaller companies also provided contributions and in-kind support for the initiative.

The hefty resources meant a steady stream of disciplined ads across all platforms drilling home the message that the “Free State of Florida” shouldn’t keep criminalizing cannabis.

“Florida has a clear choice,” a closing ad from the campaign states. “Keep arresting people for simple marijuana possession and ruining lives while letting dangerous, unregulated street marijuana put our kids at risk, or we can vote ‘yes’ on Amendment 3, giving adults access to safe, regulated marijuana to make our own choices in our own homes generating billions for schools and police.”

But an aggressive Vote No on 3 ad campaign has cast the amendment as overly broad and monopolistic in nature. An ad released last week features an uncredited appearance by First Lady Casey DeSantis as a nearly anonymous mom at a playground.

“What about our playgrounds?” the First Lady states. “Can you imagine bringing your family here just as I bring my family to a park, where there’s innocent children, and people are smoking marijuana everywhere?”

It’s part of a counter-effort against Amendment 3 funded by Keep Florida Clean Inc., a political committee chaired by James Uthmeier, Gov. DeSantis’ Chief of Staff. The committee just through Halloween spent almost $24 million on its own campaigning against Amendment 3.

That doesn’t count controversial spending by agencies under DeSantis’ authority that have funded numerous anti-Amendment 3 ads under the guise of public service amendments. From the Department of Health to the Florida Department of Transportation, millions have been spent on “public education” about the ills of marijuana and Amendment 3 specifically.

But besides a controversial use of state dollars, advocates for the measure also say much of the rhetoric against Amendment 3 has been dishonest. DeSantis has said the measure would not allow home grow, something prohibited by state statute and which the amendment itself is quiet on.

As for the ads saying the measure would legalize smoking weed in public settings, Republican Sen. Joe Gruters has already announced implementing legislation embraced by the Smart & Safe Florida campaign that would outlaw smoking marijuana — and potentially anything else — in public settings.

A summary appearing on the ballot makes clear that only adults 21 and older would be allowed to possess, purchase or use marijuana if the measure passes. It would leave it to the state to decide who has licenses to distribute the narcotic, as well as who can cultivate it. Of note, that summary also makes clear the amendment has no impact on federal law, which still views cannabis as a controlled substance.

But experts note that with both Harris and Trump endorsing the measure, issues around federal enforcement don’t loom over legalization arguments the same as they did 10 years ago.

As for the push to pass, most polling shows the measure at or above 60%, but a few polls do show Amendment 3 short of passage. Most survey results show Democratic and independent voters sold on the measure, but Republicans split. Consequently, much of the campaigning in the weeks leading up to Election Day has focused on reaching right-leaning voters. Gruters went on a statewide tour alongside Democratic Sen. Shevrin Jones and Trulieve CEO Kim Rivers promoting the measure.

Rivers has also appeared on some right-wing podcasts, including a weekend appearance on Laura Loomer’s “Loomer Unleashed.” During the interview, Loomer criticized Republican Party of Florida guides that encouraged voters to vote down on the measure.

“President Trump is really the leader of our party, and he has said to vote ‘yes,’” Loomer said.

Rivers agreed with Loomer that DeSantis and the party are “compromised” by financial support from the hemp industry, which has found success in selling products with high THC value just shy of being classified as illegal marijuana.

“This has become part and parcel to a broader conversation around the administration,” Rivers said, “and unfortunately they have just kind of gotten caught up. I’d like to think it’s the lack of ability to see the forest for the trees here.”

But she noted this is the third time voters through the petition process have had to put the question of legalizing marijuana on the Florida ballot in 10 years.

“This is beyond time. Citizens have asked for it. They want it,” Rivers said. “When you have over 50% of your party who is in favor of something, and is asking for something, and yet you are instead not just going against them but weaponizing tax dollars against them, it makes you step back and question the process in general.”