Jacob Ogles
A Florida-based survey finds GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump and U.S. Sen. Rick Scott winning statewide with 51% support. The same survey predicts defeat for ballot measures on marijuana and abortion.
Victory Insights released polling ahead of the election that shows Trump leading Democrat Kamala Harris 51% to 47%. That’s not shocking at a time when Republicans are dominating the early voting period and when most pundits no longer consider Florida a swing state. But results still put Trump’s lead within the survey’s 4.4-percentage-point margin of error.
The poll similarly puts Scott ahead of Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell 51% to 47%.
“In Florida, Republican candidates like Donald Trump and Rick Scott are poised for victory on Tuesday,” said Victory Insights senior pollster Ben Galbraith. “Though it’s impossible to anticipate Election Day turnout in a year with unprecedented early voting turnout on the Republican side, both the poll numbers and the fundamentals point toward a GOP victory.”
Of note, most polling this cycle until now has shown Scott leading but winning a much smaller percentage of the vote than his Democratic challenger. But Victory Insights has Scott and Trump with one-tenth of a percentage point, and Mucarsel-Powell three-tenths of a point behind Harris.
But the biggest surprise may be the low support the poll finds for both Amendment 3, which would legalize recreational marijuana, and Amendment 4, which would restore voting rights to protections levels before the overturn of Roe v. Wade.
The poll finds support for Amendment 3 at 56% and for Amendment 4 at 55%. Florida law requires ballot amendments to reach 60% support to be enshrined in the state constitution.
“Our best guess is that they will both narrowly fail,” Galbraith said, “but it’s important to acknowledge that support for both amendments is within the margin of error of the 60% threshold. For that reason, our best guess is just that: a best guess — we cannot conclude with sufficient statistical confidence that either amendment will pass or fail.”
Pollsters surveyed 400 likely General Election voters on Nov. 1 and 2.
For all four statewide elections polled, the results show a definite rightward swing from a poll Victory Insights conducted in September. At that point, Trump led by 2 points and Scott by less than 1 point. Polling then showed both amendments under 60% but with many voters undecided and with a path to 60% available, and with pollsters at the time heavily favoring both measures for passage.
55 comments
kathy
November 4, 2024 at 9:00 am
If Florida continues to push and support Fascism ..they need to secede from the union. The plan includes cutting medicare, social security and veterans benefits… what will you do then? No more federal money to bail the hurricane destruction. Keep voting against your interests.. Vote for Fascism and vote for your demise.
I Am Garbage
November 4, 2024 at 9:06 am
What source do you use to post this kind of BS? There is no fascism. We have a democratic election that you might not like the results of. The people will decide.
White Spiteful Devil Rapist Trump
November 4, 2024 at 11:20 am
Trump is the last White Spiteful person to ever be considered to be elected President for a 100 years Google Univision Hispanic Presidential Poll
Brian Kelly
November 4, 2024 at 2:43 pm
Let’s end this hypocrisy now!
The government should never attempt to legislate morality by creating victim-less cannabis “crimes” because it simply does not work and costs the taxpayers a fortune.
Cannabis Legalization Nationwide is an inevitable reality that’s approaching much sooner than prohibitionists think and there is nothing they can do to stop it!
Legalize Nationwide Federally Now! Support Each and Every Cannabis Legalization Initiative!
White Spiteful Devil Rapist Trump
November 4, 2024 at 11:35 am
Trump can count insecure gullible White people like you, even Hispanic are coming to their senses about Trump, Trump count on the worst attribute of White people like you, knowing people like have no sense of right or wrong
White Spiteful Devil Rapist Trump
November 4, 2024 at 1:26 pm
Si Ella Puede President Harris
Brian Kelly
November 4, 2024 at 2:42 pm
Vote YES! and you will also be saying Very Loud and Clear: “No!!!” More Prohibition “NO!!!” More Arrests! “No!!!” More Criminalizing Floridians and Handing Out Life-Long Permanent Criminal Records Over Cannabis Possession!
Brian Kelly
November 4, 2024 at 2:44 pm
Legalize federally now. What’s legal to possess and consume in over half of the populated areas of The United States should not make you a criminal in states still being governed by woefully ignorant prohibitionist politicians.
Cannabis consumers in all states deserve and demand equal rights and protections under our laws that are currently afforded to the drinkers of far more dangerous and deadly, yet perfectly legal, widely accepted, endlessly advertised and even glorified as an All-American pastime, alcohol.
Plain and simple!
Legalize Nationwide Federally Now!
Fred S
November 4, 2024 at 9:21 am
You are a low intelligence, over-opinionated twit. You don’t even know what fascism entails. Besides, the only fascists I see in the US are the social fascist left with their Orwellian right-think, brain dead propaganda and Brownshirt thugs. Try to think for yourself before posting again.
I Am Garbage
November 4, 2024 at 9:23 am
There is no fascism here you twit. Stop with the elitist arrogance
Dont Say FLA
November 4, 2024 at 9:32 am
What would you call it when you demand everybody here falls in line with your nonsense and when you attack everybody who voices their own nonsense that’s contrary to your nonsense? Do you call that “building bridges?” Is that what you call it? LOL @ UUUUUUUUUUUU, FOOOOOOO’
Fred S
November 4, 2024 at 10:57 am
Let me know when you have an intelligent comment to make. Looking at your previous posts I’m not optimistic. It is the elitist left that is the proponent of social fascism. Is the GOP telling people what they can say, what they can buy, imposing unscientific mandates, restricting free speech? Try to educate your self before posting again, low intelligence voter.
I Am Garbage
November 4, 2024 at 11:10 am
Ha! Ha! The leftist brush off. Maybe you should educate yourself a little there soy boy.
Joe
November 4, 2024 at 11:12 am
Fred S, an unexpected contender for dumbest FP poster this election cycle… Congrats foxbrained dum-dum!
Ocean Joe
November 4, 2024 at 11:51 am
“Fascism is a far-right, authoritarian, ultranationalist political ideology and movement, characterized by a dictatorial leader, centralized autocracy, militarism, forcible suppression of opposition, .” From Wikipedia, the obvious replacement of the Merriam-Webster dictionary. Sound familiar?
Now if you want to call elite leftists names, you just have to come up with a label for them. Desantis likes “woke” and Rick Scott likes “socialists” and “communists.” And no doubt if we had a truly fascist, or socialist or communist government, Scott and Trump would have been promptly and properly dealt with after their HCA medicare fraud and Jan 6 fiasco. Instead we see them winning in Florida and nobody should be surprised.
Fred S
November 4, 2024 at 5:36 pm
Still waiting for an intelligent or even intelligible response from either of you, Joe and Garbage…. Bueller? Bueller?
Fred S
November 4, 2024 at 5:38 pm
Ocean Joe – How cute that you think Wikipedia is a credible source of information. I’m guessing you didn’t make it through high school…..
White Spiteful Devil Rapist Trump
November 4, 2024 at 1:27 pm
Their is nothing redemning about anyone,who support Trump
YEW OWEME
November 4, 2024 at 1:28 pm
MAGA MARK, it seems fred s has you figured out well. you are a low info dude pretending to know when they don’t know. yeah, fred pegged you right.
cassandra was right
November 4, 2024 at 10:23 am
Trump’s head of new ‘Department of Government Efficiency’, LeonM*sk, who’s planning $2T/yr cuts, said Trump’s economic plans would result in hardship, financial turmoil, and a stock market crash….it’s “necessary” to crash the economy.”
Crooksandliars.com; Rolling Stone
They are admitting they plan to crash the economy.
Fred S
November 4, 2024 at 5:43 pm
Government efficiency is an oxymoron, just like intelligent liberal.
YEW OWEME
November 4, 2024 at 8:59 pm
FRED S, in the digital age government accountability can be attained. fred we don’t write everything out by hand and forget to file it for a month anymore. you are living in the past it seems. liberal is a gop term used to try to disparage the other side. progressive is the correct current term. you are in the past it seems. i’m an intelligent progressive, not a liberal. fred, catch up. BTW, florida government is not a good sample, it’s a right wing anomaly.
Barbara Frampton
November 4, 2024 at 1:35 pm
That’s not true.
Brian Kelly
November 4, 2024 at 2:42 pm
Vote YES! and you will also be saying Very Loud and Clear: “No!!!” More Prohibition “NO!!!” More Arrests! “No!!!” More Criminalizing Floridians and Handing Out Life-Long Permanent Criminal Records Over Cannabis Possession!
Dont Say FLA
November 4, 2024 at 9:30 am
Given a reasonable fear of retribution and vengeance from the one side, what is somebody going to tell a stranger asking them nosy questions about their own private voting choices?
You tell nosy folks whatever keeps you safe from them and their kind.
And then go vote however you want, and hint: “want” is for the future. Voting is for the future. The past is for pining.
Taylors Boyfriend
November 4, 2024 at 9:43 am
Given all the whining about VP Harris appearing on SNL, how many GOP heads are going to explode tonight after they finally put it together that the Chiefs just so happened to play on Monday Night Football tonight, the night before Election Day?
Taylor’s Boyfriend will certainly endorse Harris Walz (obviously) tonight, mere hours before the polls open in the morning.
There won’t be enough time for Team Turnip J Truck to dig Herschel Walker up for making a Trump endorsement that would totally be equal to a Taylor’s Boyfriend endorsement
LOL and FALALALALALALALALA
I can already hear Cucker Tarlson whining tomorrow after he catches on. And boy do I wish I couldn’t.
Zoobee
November 4, 2024 at 10:13 am
There’s no whining you loon. It violated the law requiring equal time, and they designed it that way purposefully to deny President Trump equal time. I hope they lose their license.
Joe
November 4, 2024 at 11:15 am
Lol at toadie RepubliQans always crying and filling their diapers about fairness when it suits them. Trump got his “equal time” during NASCAR yesterday, numbskull. Go lick a boot, zoobee.
Fred S
November 4, 2024 at 5:45 pm
Joe – Looking at your posts I’m guessing you are about nine years old, the same age as my daughter only she makes more insightful and pithy comments….
White Spiteful Devil Rapist Trump
November 4, 2024 at 11:40 am
Their is no.law for equal time,Fox would of lost their license,but they will lose billions, because of Trump election lies,that they still carry
Carpetbagger
November 4, 2024 at 10:05 am
The day before presidential Election Day is my favorite day of the entire three-year cycle. It’s when the anxiety mongers I call the Infotainment News Media pull out all the stops and reveal their true colors. Gloom-and-doom scare pieces, dubious polls, “journalism” at its very worst.
Kamala is Brat 🌴🥥🌴
November 4, 2024 at 10:17 am
Who exactly is Victory Insights?
Joe
November 4, 2024 at 11:10 am
Florida voters will get the government their choices deserve, and it won’t be a good one.
YesOn4_YesOn3
November 4, 2024 at 11:19 am
I’m calling Florida Politics out on these numbers. There’s not much free thinking involved in GOP voting, Amendment 3 and Amendment 4 are giving those people a nonpartisan chance for being human and doing the right thing.
Also, some of you all have really made an argument for taking away freedom of speech…childish, hateful posts, combined with racism happening here. To the dude the that uses the R word, wake the fup.
Yadira
November 4, 2024 at 11:20 am
I am surprised at this Poll regarding Amendment 4. I personally have run into few people who have voted against it. The fear is a miscarriage not being taken care of immediately for fear from a Doctor.
cassandra was right
November 4, 2024 at 12:04 pm
80% of Americans want government to get out of abortion decisions! Make sure DeSantis gets the message!
Vote YES on 4!
MarvinM
November 4, 2024 at 12:09 pm
Yadira, “The fear is a miscarriage not being taken care of immediately for fear from a Doctor.”
The fear the doctors have right now is to NOT treat miscarriages precisely because of the bill Gov. DeSantis signed, basically outlawing abortions after 6 weeks.
If you want to save a women from dying from something as simple and happens all the time as a miscarriage, then you need to vote for Amendment 4 in Florida.
Let doctors do doctors stuff. Let them saves women’s lives without fear of them having a freaking lawsuit.
Yadira
November 4, 2024 at 10:42 pm
Totally agree!
Kyle Prescott
November 4, 2024 at 11:41 am
The weed bill is a bad bill that Dems should be against since they hate big successful businesses. This only makes a few richer and hurts low income stoners.
YEW OWEME
November 4, 2024 at 9:02 pm
KYLE, florida has shitty pot. low income tokers should grow their own much better stuff.
I Am Garbage
November 4, 2024 at 12:14 pm
Well, I’m not actually garbage, I’m just a man. But just about everything that comes out of my mouth is garbage — at least, here in this comments section.
What the hell? Who is this?
It’s me, I Am Garbage.
No, it is not, I am I Am Garbage.
No, I am.
No, that’s a lie! Liar! Liar! Liar!
You’re okay with lies when they come from GOP liars.
That’s garbage!
See, I am I Am Garbage, you just said so.
No, I didn’t.
Did.
Didn’t.
I Am Garbage
November 4, 2024 at 12:14 pm
Did.
I Am Garbage
November 4, 2024 at 1:29 pm
Looks like I’m living rent free in your head too. 🤣
Ocean Joe
November 4, 2024 at 4:39 pm
Give him some credit. But not too much.
YEW OWEME
November 4, 2024 at 8:41 pm
MAGA MARK, don’t flatter yourself. you’re not living in anybody’s head. you give yourself too much credit. that’s part of your dunning – kruger effect kicking in. fool.
I Am Garbage
November 5, 2024 at 5:28 am
I’m definitely living in yours. Again I need to start charging you. Rent free is up old man.
Regular Guy
November 4, 2024 at 2:13 pm
I found this post via a Google search for polling, and I looked at the comments. Almost every post, on both sides, uses hyperbole and incendiary wording to attack, insult, and debase not only the “enemy” candidates, but each other. I have questions for posters on BOTH sides. Why do you do this? What does it accomplish? Do you believe anyone will be persuaded this way? Do you believe your “enemies” will be humbled into submission via your attacks? Do you speak to others this way in person, or just in an anonymous setting? Would your parents, families, and friends be proud of your actions? Do you believe (as I believe everyone does) that you are the “good guy?” Do you believe your attacks are consistent with “good guy” behavior? Are you making the world better, or worse, this way? Would you want your children or a young relative to have someone attack them in a similar style? Do you believe there’s a better way?
Donald
November 4, 2024 at 4:37 pm
Thanks Regular, I really needed that.
I promise not to pick on anybody anymore, to say derogatory stuff about women, minorities, religions, immigrants, or make stuff up or lie about almost everything.
Donald
November 4, 2024 at 4:42 pm
Sorry, I left out soldier, crippled people, and Puerto Rico. And Nobody has done more for all of them then I have. Not even Abraham Lincoln. Dont forget, I know more than the generals!
YEW OWEME
November 4, 2024 at 8:48 pm
REGULAR GUY, it looks like you need to go back to the site you found us on and move on. we don’t need your lecturing. is that too much hyperbole for you? was i too curse? did i hurt your feelings? well, my country is going to hell in a hand basket, so i will just quietly watch and not say anything. WRONG.
Jojo
November 4, 2024 at 4:36 pm
Pardon me if I think Victory Insights is just another “ we ask the questions to elicit the responses we want” polling company.
And who exactly is answering their phones? NO ONE I know
Aglet
November 4, 2024 at 5:17 pm
If 2020 was 51.22% Trump and 47.86% Biden, there is a 0.00% 2024 will be 51% – 47% Trump; it’ll be larger. Biden was a far far better candidate than Harris and in ‘2020 Florida’ was not yet the mecca for all the northerners who realized that living under dolts like Kathy Hochul and Jay Pritzker is not smart. 54% to 46%.
Fred S
November 4, 2024 at 5:48 pm
Please stop using facts and logic with liberals, you might just hurt their delicate feelings….
L2ReadPolls
November 4, 2024 at 6:51 pm
A sample size of 400 LV with a MoE of 4.4% cannot tell us anything. Large MoE (NYT/Siena is +/- 3.5% at the state level) + small N. Also, I don’t see any publicly available methodology, just their X thread and article in the New York Post, so we have no idea how they weighted their responses, the nature of their sample, or how they contacted respondents.
Is this really worth writing about? What insights are you going to glean from such a shit poll?
370H55V I/me/mine
November 5, 2024 at 2:23 pm
“Of note, most polling this cycle until now has shown Scott leading but winning a much smaller percentage of the vote than his Democratic challenger.”
Huh? If he’s winning a smaller percentage of the vote than his Democratic challenger, how can he be leading in the first place? Gawd, don’t you guys have editors to catch this stuff?!
Comments are closed.