GOP lands a major blow to Pinellas Democrats, with Vince Nowicki victory over Charlie Justice

Republican Vince Nowicki has pulled off a major flip, defeating longtime Pinellas County Commissioner Charlie Justice in District 3.

Four years ago, Justice narrowly defended his seat on the Pinellas County Commission. Now, in what felt like the blink of an eye, the GOP eked out enough support to finish the job.

With all precincts reporting, Nowicki has secured more than 51% of the vote.

The back-to-back challenges from Republicans were part of a broad GOP effort to capitalize on changing demographics that have slowly been shifting Pinellas County into the red column.

Justice won re-election four years ago by less than a percentage point against Republican challenger Tammy Sue Vasquez, a local pet boutique owner. While there were signs to suggest that it would probably still be close, Justice seemed to have a little more breathing room this time around.

The biggest difference? Justice’s last re-election campaign was waged amid the COVID pandemic, which saw Republicans capitalize on anger surrounding mask mandates and local restrictions seen largely by conservatives as attacks on personal freedoms and economic vitality. That wasn’t the case this year, but GOP gains in voter registration over the past two years were enough to spell success.

Nowicki is a candidate best known locally for his oversight of local government. He ran for St. Pete Mayor in 2021, but he’s better known for efforts to hold local elected officials accountable.

His personal investigation into former St. Pete City Council member Lisa Wheeler-Bowman led to her resignation in September. Nowicki hired a private investigator, who uncovered that Wheeler-Bowman was residing outside her district.

Nowicki also filed an unsuccessful ethics complaint against Mayor Ken Welch over his appointment of James Corbett as City Development Administrator.

Nowicki’s 2021 run for Mayor was short-lived. He failed to gain traction amid a crowded field of candidates and withdrew from the race before the qualifying deadline. A now-closed political committee, Friends of Vince Nowicki, shows he raised $17,200 from March 2021 until his exit from the race in June of the same year.

Justice tried unsuccessfully to lean into his track record in his district as a difference-maker for him under sustained Republican pressure. The district covers parts of west St. Pete and Lealman. Justice, for years, has been a staunch proponent for the Lealman community, which has long faced poverty and, in some cases, blight.

This year, Justice has been touting his work protecting beaches and local estuaries, preserving green spaces, investing in infrastructure and making public safety a priority. At the time of his campaign announcement, last October, there had been a 59% decline in serious crime countywide.

Justice prides himself on avoiding the type of partisan gridlock seen in Washington, nodding to that directly in his re-election announcement last year. He said such partisanship “stands in the way of getting things done.” But Nowicki may have capitalized on growing conservative trends in the county.

On paper, the contest was close. Justice and Nowicki had raised about the same amount, with Nowicki having a slight edge in fundraising.

As of Oct. 18, Justice was less than $4 shy of hitting six figures, while Nowicki had raised about $10,000 more, just shy of $108,000. With less than a month before Election Day at that point, both had spent about the same — nearly $94,000. Heading into the final two and a half weeks of the election, Nowicki had about $14,000 left on hand, while Justice had about $6,000.

The race may well have boiled down to partisanship and turnout.

Before the Primary, former St. Petersburg City Council member Robert Blackmon rescinded his endorsement of Nowicki in favor of a last-minute Republican entrant to the race: activist David Leatherwood. Leatherwood ended up dropping out of the race, leaving Nowicki without a Primary challenge, but sources told Florida Politics at the time that some GOP leaders had been hopeful about an alternative to Nowicki.

Even if those sources were correct, Nowicki had significant GOP support remaining, including endorsements from Pinellas County Commissioner Chris Latvala; Reps. Kim Berfield, Linda Chaney and Berny Jacques; Clearwater Mayor Bruce Rector; Redington Shores Mayor Lisa Hendrickson; St. Pete Beach Mayor Adrian Petrila; Belleair Beach Mayor Dave Gattis; Seminole Mayor Leslie Waters; Redington Beach Mayor David Will; Pinellas County School Board members Stephanie Meyer and Dawn Peters; former St. Pete Mayor Rick Baker; and others.

And voter registration was also on Nowicki’s side, with about 35,000 more Republicans in the county than Democrats (242,526 compared to 207,386). But those numbers look only at active voters. When including inactive voters — who are still eligible to vote — Democrats chip away at that advantage by more than 12,000 voters.

There are also more than 166,000 active no-party voters, and more than 51,000 additional inactive no-party voters, which Justice had hoped would give him the edge.

As an incumbent — and one who has served largely from the middle and often in consensus with Republican colleagues — Justice expected to earn at least some Republican support, and significant support from those unaffiliated with a party.

He earned endorsements from firefighters unions in St. Pete and Palm Harbor, which may have helped persuade conservative voters. He also earned nods from former Republican colleagues who previously served on the Commission in Susan Latvala and Karen Seel.

In her endorsement, Latvala praised Justice for his ability to bridge the partisan divide currently plaguing most politics.

“We can trust Charlie to put politics aside and put people first,” she said. Latvala herself was known for sometimes bucking party. And her ex-husband, Jack Latvala, was often seen as a friend to Democrats in the Senate, where he sometimes blocked what his political foes saw as dangerous legislation.

Justice’s loss is a major blow to Democrats. The party lost ground on the County Commission in the 2022 cycle, with Pat Gerard losing her seat and Republicans claiming a 4-3 advantage.

It was widely believed that if the GOP picked up Justice’s seat, or the open race to replace Democrat Janet Long, who is retiring, it would be next to impossible for Democrats to win back their advantage in less than 10 years. Losing both makes the path back to power even more onerous. Democrat Cookie Kennedy also lost her bid to replace fellow Democrat Janet Long on the Commission. Republican Chris Scherer will now replace long.

The two victories will give the GOP a 6-1 majority.