Jacob Ogles
Gotha Democrat Leonard Spencer holds a razor-thin lead over indicted Rep. Carolina Amesty in House District 45.
With all precincts reporting in Orange and Osceola counties, Spencer leads with 45,227 votes to Amesty’s 45,010. The 217-vote difference represents about 0.24% of the 90,237 votes cast. A difference of less than a half percentage point triggers an automatic machine recount, and if results hold to less than a quarter of a percent, that will be followed by a manual recount.
An important caveat: Orange County reported more than 38,000 outstanding vote-by-mail votes as of 10:45 p.m., and it was not immediately clear how many impacted the HD 45 race.
But the tight margin leaves uncertain the fate of a district Democrats hoped to flip.
With more than 52% of House District 45 voters backing Democrat Joe Biden in the 2020 Presidential Election, political observers always predicted a tough re-election campaign for Amesty. That was before a grand jury indicted the Republican incumbent on four felony counts, all connected to her prior work as an administrator for her father’s Central Christian University.
Amesty wanted voters to look past that and focus on her work on fighting sex trafficking by raising the age requirements to work in strip clubs, and on money she secured in the district for law enforcement and water quality.
“We are a very important district, and I’m going to work in Tallahassee very strongly for this very, very important seat,” she said. “We want to ensure we have commonsense legislation.”
Amesty has never addressed specifics of the forgery charges against her but maintained her innocence and pleaded not guilty in court. A pre-trial conference is scheduled for Nov. 18.
Spencer argued Amesty’s legal uncertainty presented an unacceptable situation for HD 45 constituents.
“It’s just unfortunate that we have a Representative that has four felony indictments and has been arrested,” the Gotha Democrat said. “What people want is someone with integrity and who can work on their behalf.”
The situation marked a distinct shift in fortune for Amesty, who two years ago won a competitive Primary and a closely watched General Election. She won her seat over Democrat Allie Braswell by 6 percentage points in 2022.
She won the seat as Republicans overperformed statewide, with Gov. Ron DeSantis the same year securing re-election by a landslide 19 percentage points. And that notably occurred even as DeSantis already had started a political war with Disney, the district’s largest employer. That included eliminating self-governing abilities the company enjoyed on its Florida property since Walt Disney World first opened in Florida.
Battles continued with Disney well into Amesty’s term, and she stood by DeSantis as he signed further legislation impacting the company. She stood by the Republican executive last year as DeSantis joked on stage in the district about opening a state prison on the resort property.
Spencer notably boasted a very different connection to the company. He spent nearly 16 years working for Disney, most recently heading up a diversity and sustainability effort. Spencer then went on to consult with other Fortune 500 companies on diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) issues.
Republicans notably drubbed DEI practices in public and private institutions, and some of the only attack ads funded by the Florida House Republican Campaign Committee dragged Spencer for his work on the issue, even while censoring any mention of his history at Disney.
Spencer said he considers that part of DeSantis’ extended retribution campaign on the Disney corporation. “It’s just an example of the vindictive nature of what they have tried to do and continue to do relative to The Walt Disney Co. and to try and stifle free speech,” he said.
Amesty, for her part, said the state needs to treat every company equally, and that the change in governance on the property was good for the constituents of HD 45. She also stressed that she personally has nothing against the corporation.
“We have a lot of people in our district that, either you work at Disney or you visit Disney,” she said. “I’m one of them. I love to go to Disney Springs and enjoy dinner and do some shopping. They’re a very important company in our district. But at the same time, we want to ensure that there is a balanced perspective when it comes down to every corporation in our state.”
Notably, Amesty through the last reporting period maintained an edge in dollars raised and spent compared to Spencer. But Spencer has seen far more in direct spending on his behalf by the Florida House Democratic Campaign Committee and state party. The Orange County Democratic Executive Committee also spent heavily on attacks not only attacking Amesty but other Republican politicians, like County Commission candidate Austin Arthur, who had posed in photos with the lawmaker prior to her arrest.
The race demonstrated the importance of Central Florida to both parties, with Orange and Osceola being Democratic-leaning communities where Republicans nevertheless made local strides.
As of Aug. 20, HD 45 had 41,771 Republican voters, 36,873 Democratic voters and 40,250 no-party and third-party voters. Republicans have aggressively tried to build that advantage this year, adding more than 2,000 voters to the rolls when the Democrats added just under 1,600, according to L2 data.
