CD 1 candidates campaign through Christmas as Jan. 28 GOP Primary looms

The holidays for many political candidates brought a welcome respite from the campaign trail. But due to a Special Election in a Panhandle congressional district, campaigning is just ramping up.

Candidates running in Florida’s 1st Congressional District continue to attend forums, participate in holiday parades and mix call time with family events. They are looking toward a Jan. 28 Primary, with winners of the intraparty contest heading on to an April 1 Special General Election.

A total of 10 Republican candidates filed to succeed former U.S. Rep. Matt Gaetz in the seat: Aaron Dimmock, Kevin Gaffney, Jeff Macey, Greg Merk, John Mills, Jimmy Patronis, Jeff Peacock, Joel Rudman, Michael Dylan Thompson and Gene Valentino.

Those candidates worked to reach voters without disrupting family events at a time when many already feel exhausted by a high-stakes Presidential Election.

“I wish I could say the singular focus of every vote in the 1st Congressional District is on this race, but that’s not true,” said Peacock, a Navarre High School math teacher. “The feedback is someone muted with this crazy campaign calendar running through Christmas and New Year’s. I’ve been trying to get out and meet people, but most don’t know there is a Special Election. The ones who do don’t realize the Primary is on Jan. 28.”

There’s little time for candidates to set themselves apart in the contest, especially when one candidate, Patronis, already boasts the critical endorsement of President-elect Donald Trump.

But the nature of Special Election campaigns brings chaos and opportunity. With turnout likely to be low and 10 campaigns all vying for the attention of voters, every candidate has worked to set themselves apart.

Experience versus freshness

For Dimmock, the race feels like a continuation of his race this year against Gaetz. He challenged the Republican incumbent and saw enormous outside spending by allies of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy.

The high-cost election had plusses and minuses — Dimmock’s name recognition is higher but he continues to swat down attacks on his recent work in St. Louis and attacks on a former employer’s push for diversity initiatives. But the Pensacola Republican believes his time on the trail provides him a net positive.

“It’s easy to stay the course when you know the stuff they smeared you with were untruths,” he said. “For me, it was an opportunity to engage with the district in a very fun and unique way.”

He notes that 26,788 Republican voters already voted for him in this election, a major asset looking toward a Special Election with 10 candidates. Many of those voters remain supportive, he said.

Merk, though, said his own long roots in the community, working both in the military and in finance, are bearing out in public forums. He said more questions from voters in attendance are directed at him, as are more comments by other candidates in the race. He recently picked up the endorsement for former state Rep. Mike Hill, a Pensacola Republican.

“My military experience in the most military district in Florida and  my experience in financial markets creates such an opportunity, and this district is really tailor-made for me,” Merk said.

The fractured field could potentially help any candidate with a different story to tell though, and Thompson thinks he represents change in his very being. If elected, Thompson would be the youngest member of Congress — the 25-year-old is six months younger than Democratic U.S. Rep. Maxwell Frost of Orlando and about six years younger than Republican U.S. Rep. Anna Paulina Luna of St. Petersburg. He is also the only Republican in the race who qualified by petition, which already gave him a chance to interface with thousands of voters.

“If you finished college in, say, 1980, how can you make policy on how education operates today?” he said. “My campaign means new ideas and fresh energy, and a finger on the pulse of the working class from which so many other candidates are far removed.”

But at the same time, Rudman, a Navarre Republican serving in the Florida House, has experience running for a position representing Panhandle voters. The second-term lawmaker said he has already felt the benefits of his past appearances on the ballot.

“This is totally unlike my first election, where no one knew me,” Rudman said. “In 2022, I would knock on doors and people would ask who are you? This time around, people are happy to answer the door because they recognize me. They are saying, ‘You’re Dr. Rudman, the freedom doctor! Thank you for all you’re doing for our area!’”

He said “Freedom Doctor” branding from prior campaigns seems to have resonated, not to mention his long history working in medicine in the region for 25 years before launching his political career.

“The funniest story is when a store Santa stopped me as I was walking in. I didn’t recognize him. I didn’t think he was a patient, and he was not. But he was just a normal citizen who watches the news, and wanted me to know there are a lot of people like him who are behind me. And this sort of interaction happens daily.”

Valentino, a former Escambia County Commissioner, is bringing some high-profile names and a podcast audience to his campaign. Days after Christmas, he announced the support of UFC fighter Jorge Masvidal. Valentino said the support shows his populist appeal. While he has experience on the ballot, this support helps boost a perhaps greater reputation as a fighter and political outsider.

“Trump himself credited Jorge with playing a big role in rallying support in his recent victory,” Valentino said. “Jorge knows what it takes to win tough fights, and his backing of my campaign means we have people from all walks of life rallying behind my campaign. I stand determined to take this fighting spirit all the way to Washington, where we’ll defend and protect our Northwest Florida families from out-of-touch elites.”

The Trump factor

But that also raises a looming element and booming voice on Republican politics in this race. Patronis, already a political force who won statewide as Florida’s Chief Financial Officer twice in the last six years, earned the endorsement of President-elect Trump before even entering the race. Patronis has touted that in radio and television ads running frequently throughout the district. He has also promised to be a voice for Trump’s agenda in Congress.

“Trump’s in Charge! The American people have signed on to his vision of putting our country first!” he recently posted on X, along with a promise to extend tax cuts passed in Trump’s first term.

Beyond Trump, Patronis has rallied endorsements from local Sheriffs and other lawmakers, and several candidates who initially filed backed out of the Special Election as soon as Trump issued his statement of support for Patronis. It raises the question of whether anyone can unseat the juggernaut.

Merk, though, believes voters will not care about the endorsement. “Jimmy Patronis is an empty suit,” he said. “Voters want to choose their Representative, not let people in Washington do it. That has been the case with everyone I have talked to. When I was in seventh grade Social Studies, I learned about carpetbaggers. And I’m also not worried because I don’t think Trump even knew Patronis did not live in this district when he endorsed him.”

Other candidates in the race have similarly brushed off concerns, and many pointed out that the Panama City Republican, a former state Representative, has always had a political base of operations outside of CD 1.

Peacock suggested in a campaign bound to see a low number of voters turn out, the residency issue may be more troublesome for Patronis than he realizes.

“A lot of people over here when you talk to them don’t know who Jimmy is,” he said. “I know Jimmy is portraying this whole race as being about the fact he has Trump’s endorsement. But I think more people realize he doesn’t live in this district than realize he was endorsed by Trump.”

Rudman wasn’t as pointed in his criticism of Patronis as some, but suggested candidates with a history of service in the region simply have a built-in advantage.

“When you think that I have impacted on average 30 people a day, five days a week, for 25 years across the district, that’s a huge home-field advantage,” Rudman said. “That’s going to be hard for an opponent to overcome. Just like it would be hard for me to beat Jimmy in Panama City, because that’s his home.”

Of course, every candidate has their own case to make. Gaffney worked in the Department of Justice in Washington and has his own federal connections. Mills, a military veteran, previously ran for Florida Senate in the region. Macey is the registered agent of a local business, MetroMace.

Located in the Panhandle and anchored by Pensacola, CD 1 is one of the most conservative districts in the state. Gaetz was elected to the seat in 2016, winning more than 69% of the vote. This year, he won with 66% of the vote. More than 53% of the electorate is registered as a Republican, according to the most recent L2 voter data. Only 22% of the district’s voters are registered as Democrats.

But the election won’t end in January. The Republican nominee in April will face Democrat Gay Valimont, along with no-party candidate Stephen Broden and four write-in candidates.