Democrats overperformed in Special Elections, but at what cost?

While Democratic candidates in two Special Elections in Florida overperformed statistically, neither came within 10 percentage points of winning a congressional seat. That was after Democrats spent millions running in deep red districts.

So where did upward of $15 million go in Florida’s 1st and 6th Congressional Districts if not toward victory?

Almost a third of it went to a single consulting firm, Key Lime Strategies and Media, tasked with raising funds. And some consultants say a strategy like that was just asking for money to burn.

A relatively new firm, Key Lime early this year said it raised more than $3 million in total for clients in the 2024 election cycle. At the time, the firm was expanding staff as it worked with Democrats running in the CD 1 and CD 6 Special Elections to succeed former U.S. Reps. Matt Gaetz and Michael Waltz, respectively. And the work in those two races certainly gained notice.

Democrat Gay Valimont raised more than $6.5 million in CD 1 as of March 12, more than triple what Republican opponent Jimmy Patronis reported bringing in. Meanwhile, Democrat Josh Weil reported $9.5 million in fundraising, outpacing Republican Randy Fine about 10-to-1.

Both Democrats went on to lose their respective races by about 14 percentage points. That’s an overperformance in districts Donald Trump carried by more than 30 points, but are losses nonetheless.

Meanwhile, expenditure reports for the campaigns showed that as of the last fundraising period, Valimont gave more than $2.1 million to Key Lime, and Weil paid upward of $2.6 million for the firm’s services.

Jackson McMillan, Key Lime’s CEO, defended the high costs, and said the bulk of the fees went to directly helping the campaigns.

“Grand, grand majority of that is reimbursement for money spent on the fundraising ads, reimbursement for money spent on fundraising texts, emails, etc.,” McMillan said.

He said consultants like those working for Val Demings’ 2022 Senate campaign and Kamala Harris’ presidential campaign similarly charged money to make money.

“Others did the exact same thing,” he said. “They just didn’t catch heat because it was an establishment firm doing it instead of a couple of young upstarts.”

But there has been increasing grousing since campaign reports came out about the fee structures for Key Lime and the lavish level of spending, particularly in races that may ultimately be unwinnable.

“Regardless of the services provided, it’s hard to justify a consultant making over $1 million in just four months — more than 20% of each campaign’s total haul,” wrote Nicholas Thurston, an Orlando area consultant, in a Substack.

McMillan said his firm has been transparent about its fee structure.

“My formula is on my website,” he said. Key Lime gets reimbursed for money spent to raise funds. Then for any profit leftover from the fundraising, the firm takes a cut.

“For instance, if I spend $100 on a text and it raises $500, true profit is $400. So, my bill is $100 (what I spent) plus 0.25 times $400, or $100. So $200, and the campaign keeps $300.”

And he doesn’t get a cut of all spending.

“I only get a piece of my programs,” he said. “So for instance a donation to the website — or many, many other forms that were fundraising for these campaigns — I don’t get a penny of.”

In the case of the Weil campaign, the money at Key Lime wasn’t the only thing drawing attention. The campaign spent more than $60,000 on Airbnb costs, including renting a Silver Springs complex where the candidate lived that also served as a staff headquarters in the district. There was also a one-time payment to Vote Influencers, a company that specializes in social media content creation and which just registered its internet domain in July.

Democratic consultants acknowledge that some of the issue here may be the nature of a Special Election in an uphill district.

Democrats have found surprising successes in off-year and off-cycle races, including a Republican-leaning state Senate seat in Pennsylvania last week and a Wisconsin Supreme Court race the same night as Florida’s Special Elections for Congress. A win in those races can turn consultants into stars. But at the start of campaigns, few established and experienced consultants will waste their time.

But what to make after a loss? As results came in, Democrats’ advantage in fundraising in the Special Elections stopped drawing flattery and started inspiring mockery.

“That smell coming from the Panhandle and the First Coast in Florida is the smell of democrats lighting more than $20 million on fire,” posted longtime Republican consultant Jamie Miller on X.

Among Democrats in the consulting class, many wondered whether those funds could have been used for battles in competitive races.