Poll shows Jason Pizzo could act as spoiler, hurt Danielle Levine Cava’s chances in 2026 Governor’s race

TALLAHASSEE, FLA. 1/5/23-Sen. Jason Pizzo, D-North Miami Beach, during the Joint Legislative Auditing Committee, Thursday at the Capitol in Tallahassee. Pizzo alternates chairing the committee with Rep. Mike Caruso, R-Delray Beach. COLIN HACKLEY PHOTO

A poll on the 2026 Governor’s race from a conservative think tank shows Republicans poised to hold the office. That’s the case if GOP Primary voters choose either First Lady Casey DeSantis or U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds, the front-runners for the nomination.

But the poll from the James Madison Institute suggests Democrats will be significantly hurt if former Senate Democratic Leader Jason Pizzo runs as an independent.

Pollsters asked voters about a potential three-way race. Survey results show DeSantis would take 39% of the vote against Miami-Dade Mayor Danielle Levine Cava, the front-runner on the Democratic side, who would win 35% of the vote. Pizzo would take 8%. About 18% of likely voters remain undecided.

Meanwhile, if Donalds were the nominee, he would win 38% of the vote to Levine Cava’s 34% and Pizzo’s 5%. With that matchup, 23% remain undecided.

That may be a reflection of DeSantis’ higher name recognition. The same poll showed 9% of voters have no awareness of DeSantis, while 37% said the same of Donalds. About 35% are unaware of Pizzo. No such favorability testing was done for Levine Cava.

Pollsters reported a margin of error of 2.77 percentage points in the poll.

The head-to-head matchups show the potential for Pizzo to be a spoiler in the race. The Miami-Dade politician had been a front-runner for the Democratic nomination, according to the pollsters, before his high-profile resignation as Senate caucus leader and public announcement that he would change his party registration to “no party affiliation.”

Whether in a matchup against DeSantis or Donalds, the combined support for Levine Cava and Pizzo exceeds the current level of support for the Republican nominee.

There are certainly other reasons to be skeptical of Democrats’ ability to compete statewide in 2026, most notably a growing deficit in registered voters compared to Republicans. The most recent statewide data shows Republicans outnumber Democrats now by more than 1.2 million voters.

But the poll suggests any chance for Democrats would be hampered if Pizzo runs as an independent.

That said, he would primarily draw from voters who are registered without party affiliation or with a minor party. About 16% of those voters would back Pizzo over Donalds or Levin Cava, while 23% would back the Miami-Dade Mayor and 22% would support the Congressman.

Against DeSantis, the poll shows Pizzo winning 22% of the independent vote, while 26% support Levine Cava and 19% back the First Lady.